Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Summer 2015 pattern discussion


GaWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 852
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like the stretch of 90 degree days, will end tomorrow at 13 or 14! It's been an ugly stretch of heat, like we haven't seen in years! Hopefully , we can get some storms and rain, outside of the VA/NC border counties today and tomorrow ! Looking like 60/70% coverage around here tonight and tomorrow . I'll probably be in the 30% with Shetley

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the stretch of 90 degree days, will end tomorrow at 13 or 14! It's been an ugly stretch of heat, like we haven't seen in years! Hopefully , we can get some storms and rain, outside of the VA/NC border counties today and tomorrow ! Looking like 60/70% coverage around here tonight and tomorrow . I'll probably be in the 30% with Shetley

CAE is holding at 19  :weight_lift: ......I have faith we'll see day 20 tomorrow  :sizzle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hints of some rainfall relief for me after a few weeks of subpar rainfall.  Canadian is much more agressive with it than the GFS, but I'll take anything at this point.  This is the first run the GFS has shown anything more than a quarter inch for the upstate.  Canadian has been pretty consistent with having higher rainfall totals than the GFS.  Watch it all disappear tonight though.  Prob just another blip.

 

gem_apcpn_seus_28.png

gfs_apcpn_seus_28.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z GFS says much of SC and NC only gets around .25 through hour 288. 

 

Typical.  GFS did the same thing a week ago.  Hoping Canada is right, but leaning towards GFS being the correct solution based on how this summer has gone so far.  Aside from the 1st week of June, we have consistently been in the precip minimum for the last couple months.

 

gfs_apcpn_seus_28.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder what the reason is for the notable rain hole over the Carolinas.

There's a couple of negative A holes , in that region! I don't this week is going to be that wet and it's hard to get widespread rain coverage like that in the summer, hence the scattered tstorm mentions all summer. MBY could get 3" in one afternoon storm, while a mile down the road gets 0. Those maps are ridiculous , especially in the summer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder what the reason is for the notable rain hole over the Carolinas.

Part of the reason is that in a northwest flow, most of the 2 states would be in downsloping which dries things out east of the mountains. This effect weakens near the coast, thus those sections also get decent rain at times in this pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 6z GFS would keep the heat just south of my area(RDU) for the 4th. Hopefully that can push farther south and provide more on this board a cool(...relevant) upcoming Saturday.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=06&fhour=132&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's what they're showing locally for the weekend... Wouldn't be bad if I had a beach :D

 

 

Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Independence Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's what they're showing locally for the weekend... Wouldn't be bad if I had a beach :D

 

 

Friday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Independence Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.

Hopefully the 6z GFS is on to something and it's cooler for us. Looks like the NWS was going with the 0z which showed this:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=138&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it looks like the 6z GFS was just a dream. The 12z shows the RDU area over 90 again for the 4th. The cooler air is not too far to our north so I guess it's still possible that the 6z could win out; but I wont hold my breath.

12z

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we at least have shotgun pops starting tomorrow through the 4th.  Seems like 4th of July is always around the time our rain shields finally move onto a different location.  Being in the 90's all the time wouldn't be so bad if we could get some decent storms so I don't have to spend 2 hours outside watering my plants and the garden.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Part of the reason is that in a northwest flow, most of the 2 states would be in downsloping which dries things out east of the mountains. This effect weakens near the coast, thus those sections also get decent rain at times in this pattern.

Thanks jshetley

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still holding out hope for temps below 90 for the 4th, at least for central NC areas.

6z GFS:
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=06&fhour=108&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

It will come down to how far south(and if) the cool front can push into NC.

Edit: From RAH

IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT ON THE DAYS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE
FAVORED IN PLACEMENT OF THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITIONS. THIS APPLICATION
WOULD KEEP THE FRONTS FROM COMPLETELY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH OUR
REGION AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... SEVERAL
FRONTS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NC (MOSTLY
LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY).
IT IS THOSE PERIODS IN WHICH THERE MAY BE ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE WILL FORECAST HIGHER POP AT THOSE TIMES...
BUT KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POP FOR DIURNAL STORMS IN BETWEEN THE
FRONTAL APPROACHES.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like an unsettled week ahead...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WEST-EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SKIRTING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE...GRADUATED HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LATER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL STILL TEND TO FAVOR A DIURNAL PATTERN OF INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING MAX HEATING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUBJECT TO DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...