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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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The 15z SREF mean shifted a hair south for tomorrow night and the 18z NAM seems to be following suit. We'll have to see if this is just typical model noise or not.

 

This is a big deal because if the area gets heavy rain on Thursday night and then the storm for this weekend materializes, flooding could start to become a major concern.

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DT had a good write up about this pattern change and how the models could be underestimating rainfall along the east coast the next several days into July 4th weekend. It seems like the models have been coming in wetter as we get closer to the end of the week and the weekend.

Think of this setup as you would a cut off low in late Spring but with more juice to work with. You have an onshore flow off of warm water which will provide plenty of moisture to be advected into the system. 

 

What this storm has going for it is the closed low to our West and a decent baroclinic zone. Two ingredients for synoptic rainfall.

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Check out this METAR from Coro, Venezuela (on the Caribbean) from earlier today:

METAR SVCR 241800Z /////KT 9999 FEW020 37/30 Q1013

 

That's a HI of 133F.

How do you get 133F from this?    Isn't this 98.6/86.0?

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The 15z SREF mean shifted a hair south for tomorrow night and the 18z NAM seems to be following suit. We'll have to see if this is just typical model noise or not.

 

This is a big deal because if the area gets heavy rain on Thursday night and then the storm for this weekend materializes, flooding could start to become a major concern.

 

 

I see 0z RGEM now completely misses us to the south with the rain Thursday night and Friday morning. NAM and GFS still give us a decent soaking of rain, but I'm betting on RGEM. We're probably gonna have to wait until Saturday for our rain. 

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Second June in a row without 95 degree or greater heat at Newark. It's only the third occurrence

for the 2000's so far.

 

June highs at Newark for the 2000's

 

15...93

14...92

13...96

12...99

11...102

10...98

09...89

08...99

07...96

06...98

05...97

04...97

03...95

02...96

01...95

00...96

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2-3" of rain for the area on the NAM this weekend, isolated higher amounts. Convection fires over the Delmarva Saturday night and crosses the region and we all know how fickle those things can be. The main rain shield starts off over PA and then transfers as the secondary takes over.

 

Will probably come down to nowcast again as the models haven't been so hot with the placement of heaviest rain

for the June 1 EWR deluge , Bill remnants , or the convective event on Tuesday. But the heavy rain signal is strong for

for whoever jackpots with this synoptic set up.

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Will probably come down to nowcast again as the models haven't been so hot with the placement of heaviest rain

for the June 1 EWR deluge , Bill remnants , or the convective event on Tuesday. But the heavy rain signal is strong for

for whoever jackpots with this synoptic set up.

Yes I was a lot more confident when the models were taking the main low pressure system further East. This looks to be in and out in about 12 hours.

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so far June temperatures are averaging near the 30 year average mostly due to warm minimums...75 is the warmest minimum so far...84 is the record high minimum for any day...last time that happened was in 2011...some years had mornings with lows 80 or higher but by midnight either by showers or cold front the temp fell below 80...2011 is the last year with a minimum 80 or higher...I think Central Park will have a morning 80 or above this year...TWT...

days with a min. 80 or above...1905-1908 had many days 80 or above for the minimum...2010-2011 had five between them...

min/max.......dates...
81/90......7/03/1876
81/90......7/19/1878
80/95......7/07/1883
80/94......7/25/1885
81/91......8/11/1891
82/98......8/09/1896
80/94......8/10/1896
81/96......8/11/1896
81/95......7/18/1900
82/100....7/02/1901
80/96......7/18/1905
80/95......7/19/1905
80/92......8/11/1905
80/87......7/23/1906
80/94......8/06/1906
80/90......7/05/1908
81/95......7/06/1908
84/93......7/07/1908
81/93......8/05/1908
80/87......8/06/1908
82/94......8/13/1908
84/93......8/14/1908
82/100....7/31/1917
82/98......8/01/1917
80/96......8/06/1918
82/104....8/07/1918
81/94......7/20/1930
80/98......8/02/1933
81/100....6/26/1952
80/95......7/16/1952
80/101....7/22/1957
81/95......7/23/1978
82/102....7/21/1980
80/96......8/08/1980
80/95......8/09/1980
80/95......8/15/1985
80/94......8/12/1988
80/99......8/14/1988
81/97......8/15/1988
80/100....7/08/1993
80/102....7/10/1993
84/102....7/15/1995
82/102....7/05/1999
83/101....7/06/1999
82/103....8/09/2001
82/95......7/03/2002
81/96......7/04/2002
80/95......7/30/2002
80/98......8/13/2002
80/99......8/13/2005
83/97......8/02/2006
81/103....7/06/2010
80/100....7/07/2010
80/97......7/24/2010
84/104....7/22/2011
83/100....7/23/2011

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