snowman19 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Well no. Its much much warmer. But seriously. The incredible fear of 1997 is amazing. It's not 1997, it's not 1997...click your heels and repeat 5 times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Well no. Its much much warmer. But seriously. The incredible fear of 1997 is amazing. I'd bet money that this won't beat 97. That's an easy bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I'd bet money that this won't beat 97. That's an easy bet Jb said global ssts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 97 peaked on Nov 26th in the weeklies. Are we somehow thinking that its not continuing to grow right now? It did peak on November 26th at +2.8c, but it held at +2.7c through early January, and no lower than +2.4c through February 11th. That's an incredibly long duration period of very anomalous SST's, the extent to which has very little chance of being attained in this event; wouldn't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Jb said global ssts Oh, thought you meant the Nino. Well yeah it's warmer all over... but when he says "global", I think he means the areas that matter to us (Pacific, north Atlantic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I'd bet money that this won't beat 97. That's an easy betYou are correct we don't beat 2.3 on the ONI. What I'm trying to figure out is what was the original fear of this being called a great basin wide event and why the total ignorance of guidance that shows we fall short of 97.As if a 2nd place finish somehow diminishes a great event. The fantasy forecasting does not do this thread any good. And those that hang on every word of these dramatic posts is nauseating (as its possible to be more wrong than they have been ) 5 weeks of insisting this was east based NINO, without any acknowledgement that the analysis was poor and ended up wrong. A 2 week move In 1.2 after a 5 week decline just missed the entire evolution of this event. Is now followed by a 1st place fantasy that will not happen. Why can't people call this what it is , a great basin wide event that falls just just short of 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We should be getting the new Euro monthlies soon if anyone wants to do a play by play. Are they in today or tomorrow the 8th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I think on the 8th since that's when they came out in October. Do any vendors offer them below the highest commercial account level? I only see them via email update . But the M/A and N/E guys get them .I will ask him today , if that's something they offer and I just miss it or if it's sometime they are planning on doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Flat nasty WWB showing up over the EPAC. This will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Flat nasty WWB showing up over the EPAC. This will be fun. Yes, was just about to post about this, another strong WWB expected to form and go through mid month, this will trigger more warming. This Nino is still not done. We are probably a month or so away from the final peak. My guess is a middle of December peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 http://blog.wdtinc.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-el-ni%C3%B1os-1997-98-and-2015-16?utm_campaign=El%20Nino%20Comparison%20-%20EB%2FDG&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We are already starting to see the GFS shift west with the most anomalous slowing of the trades from where it was just a couple days ago. Incredible how persistent this Nino has been on focusing the most anomalous slowing of the trades west of 120 W over the last three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We are already starting to see the GFS shift west with the most anomalous slowing of the trades from where it was just a couple days ago. Incredible how persistent this Nino has been on focusing the most anomalous slowing of the trades west of 120 W over the last three months. Kind of. The forecast still keeps the complete reversal of the trades hugging the SA coast by the 10-11th. By the 12th it has this covering 140W to the coast. So far we haven't seen anything even remotely close to this since many l maybe June. This coincides with the warm pool still moving into Eastern enso3. Given the precedent so far I'd expect the model to trend West with the WWB in time. But it's still as currently modeled going to change the complexion of the nino over the far EPAC. My predictions have failed in large part to the retrograding of the WWBs in time. I will say if this one ends up very close to what the gfs shows currently enso 1-2 will peak in December above 3.0C easily. And enso 3-4 will be at peak into late January. We are at the end of this push. So the next WWB would be expected that far East. In terms of sensible weather I guess we will see. This would bring the 28C isotherm deeper and further East than what most expect at this point. There is talk of this quickly retrograding into a nodoki while the sub surface warm pool is still moving East and the next WWB is going to be the furthest East. All while enso 1-2 has warmed back near its peak. This next WWB will blow it by that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Good analysis. Good explanation . My opinion is this grows 3. 3.4 4 through mid December but still falls short of 97. I like a peak ONI of 2 I think 1.2 will show up come Monday around the 2.5 level. Maybe you squeeze another week increase there but for me 1.2 will be the 1st the back off and this will collapse east to west for the winter . That said on balance the entire PAC including the waters off the BAJA , the waters in the GOA and IO are warmer than 97 . However for basin purposes a 2nd place NINO finish does not diminish a great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Boy friv sure is stubborn when it comes to this Nino being east based or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 http://blog.wdtinc.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-el-ni%C3%B1os-1997-98-and-2015-16?utm_campaign=El%20Nino%20Comparison%20-%20EB%2FDG&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook This is a good analysis overall, and it corroborates what I was posting yesterday with respect to the differences between 1997 and 2015. I think it's fairly apparent, utilizing the available objective measures, that 1997 is still quite a bit more potent than 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Euro seasonal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Euro seasonal? JB only put up the 500 mb that shows the neg in the GOA and the ridge on the west shores of HB. If that 500 is right , then the 2m Temps will look like the SST analog maps and not the N to plus 1 the euro shows. I always use the 500 s It's where you will find the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Euro seasonal?The new NMME is out too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The new NMME is out too it's above normal every month through june http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Nmme is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Here's a slightly difference take on the analysis of the new NMME. Plus 1C for J - M with DL forcing a POS PNA , a trough in the SE , a STJ and a collapsing NINO from east to west is what most of us have thought would be the winters genesis . What the guidance is pointing out is how the pattern retrogrades in Canada at 2 M . Because it's doing so at 500. The warmest anomalies at 2 M in Dec start in E Canada in Jan they over HB and by the time we get to FEB and MAR the greatest departures from normal are rolling back into western Canada and Alaska WHY? well all one has to do is look at 500 . The story of a 2nd half winter by many here is supported by the NMME. The euro NEG in the GOA is actually a tick west of last month's seasonal. Sometimes one needs to look past 2m , unless you thought this was going to be an east based NINO or were expecting a jump east in the forcing then you are used to missing the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Is there a 500 image for the NMME? I'm more interested in that than surface temperature anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 New GFS continued to shift the most anomalous weakening in the trade winds even further west. So it looks like once again, the best slowing of the trades will be focused West of 120 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Is there a 500 image for the NMME? I'm more interested in that than surface temperature anomalies. I agree. But you can get a pretty good idea by looking at 2m in D J F M in Canada . You can see how the warmer anomalies roll west over time which is in line with the euro at 500 December is plus 2 at KNYC by the time we get to March it's plus .5C. That tells me the mean 500 mb map will have the NEG S of the Aleutians and higher heights in western Canada . The new euro is out and is fine at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It has a 200 mb anomaly map that looks just like the Euro, UKMET, and SSTCA. Very strong +PNA ridge west of Hudson Bay with a trough over the Southeast. NMME_ensemble_z200_season2.png Thanks Chris. I thought it look like this just by looking at the greatest departures from normal in Canada at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Thanks Chris. I thought it look like this just by looking at the greatest departures from normal in Canada at 2m Yeah, it looks like the Euro is stronger with the ridge west of Hudson Bay from the image JB posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I agree. But you can get a pretty good idea by looking at 2m in D J F M in Canada . You can see how the warmer anomalies roll west over time which is in line with the euro at 500 December is plus 2 at KNYC by the time we get to March it's plus .5C. That tells me the mean 500 mb map will have the NEG S of the Aleutians and higher heights in western Canada . The new euro is out and is fine at 500. How does precip look along the east coast? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 How does precip look along the east coast? Thanks All 4 months are AN. D and J the wettest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Here's a slightly difference take on the analysis of the new NMME. Plus 1C for J - M with DL forcing a POS PNA , a trough in the SE , a STJ and a collapsing NINO from east to west is what most of us have thought would be the winters genesis . What the guidance is pointing out is how the pattern retrogrades in Canada at 2 M . Because it's doing so at 500. The warmest anomalies at 2 M in Dec start in E Canada in Jan they over HB and by the time we get to FEB and MAR the greatest departures from normal are rolling back into western Canada and Alaska WHY? well all one has to do is look at 500 . The story of a 2nd half winter by many here is supported by the NMME. The euro NEG in the GOA is actually a tick west of last month's seasonal. Sometimes one needs to look past 2m , unless you thought this was going to be an east based NINO or were expecting a jump east in the forcing then you are used to missing the bigger picture. I wish you luck in your forecast. It would be the first time ever in the entire weather record keeping history that NYC has had a colder and snowier than normal winter with an El Niño this strong if you're correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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