Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[Dsnowx53]

I do agree that the forcing and most warmth is currently east of where we want it, but that doesn't make this an east-based Nino. It's a strong basin-wide event. Overall, it's not an ideal Nino obviously, but it definitely could be a lot worse, as the forcing should be much more favorable than it was during 97-98. 

 

There has been no one saying centrally-based, either. That's very different from basin-wide. 

[PB GFI]

Palatable .

 

[PB GFI]

Even better , 

 

[mitchnick]

Spatial distribution of the absolute warmth.

Enso 1-2 is not only small but not very warm in general.

Enso 3-4 is about to destroy what 1997 put up.

Enso 4 has already done that. Which is where the 30C ssts are.

Once the anomalies are spatially weighed the gap between the two closes.

And given the current situation its a solid bet this nino ends up the most anomalous on record.

In other news enso 1-2 is seeing the expected warming.

Hasn't happened after weeks of your claims it would have already. Things are proceeding as expected, no more and no less. I think your hyperbole is the problem.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hasn't happened after weeks of your claims it would have already. Things are proceeding as expected, no more and no less. I think your hyperbole is the problem.

Don't take this as supporting/defending the senseless east-based Nino idea, but region 1+2 isn't cooling as expected. Other than that, the Nino is progressing as expected.. and for once, I can say that includes region 4.

[Isotherm]

Don't take this as supporting/defending the senseless east-based Nino idea, but region 1+2 isn't cooling as expected. Other than that, the Nino is progressing as expected.. and for once, I can say that includes region 4.

 

 

Not as expected by the CFS, but most of the modelling kept region 1+2 near or above +2.0c through November at least.

[Stebo]

Don't take this as supporting/defending the senseless east-based Nino idea, but region 1+2 isn't cooling as expected. Other than that, the Nino is progressing as expected.. and for once, I can say that includes region 4.

CFS has been trying to weaken 1+2 for months now and it really hasn't weakened.

[PB GFI]

The better guidance is showing you where this is going. What is it with the CFS trash bag love affair.

1.2 over the last 5 weeks.

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.2

2.3

Not exactly the exploding some have been looking for. This region top ticked 2.9 on July 9th then by early Aug it declined to 1.7.

Every time this area has warms it reverses shortly thereafter.

What an attempt to make chicken soup out of chicken sh**

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not as expected by the CFS, but most of the modelling kept region 1+2 near or above +2.0c through November at least.

Well, again, CFS is the only model I have access to. I have JAMSTEC but it's kinda ambiguous.

 

The better guidance is showing you where this is going. What is it with the CFS trash bag love affair.

1.2 over the last 5 weeks.

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.2

2.3

Not exactly the exploding some have been looking for. This region top ticked 2.9 on July 9th then by early Aug it declined to 1.7.

Every time this area has warms it reverses shortly thereafter.

What an attempt to make chicken soup out of chicken sh**

Not sure who this post is aimed at, but it's like an alarm sets off in your head whenever someone says anything about the CFS.

[PB GFI]

Well, again, CFS is the only model I have access to. I have JAMSTEC but it's kinda ambiguous.

Not sure who this post is aimed at, but it's like an alarm sets off in your head whenever someone says anything about the CFS.

You were not close to being the target of that.

[donsutherland1]

Don't take this as supporting/defending the senseless east-based Nino idea, but region 1+2 isn't cooling as expected. Other than that, the Nino is progressing as expected.. and for once, I can say that includes region 4.

The historical data for strong El Niño events suggests that on a monthly basis, Region 1+2 would probably see a continued slow decline in anomalies through the rest of the fall, even as some week-to-week fluctuations occur. I suspect that's what's happening and will continue to occur over the next month.

[ORH_wxman]

The historical data for strong El Niño events suggests that on a monthly basis, Region 1+2 would probably see a continued slow decline in anomalies through the rest of the fall, even as some week-to-week fluctuations occur. I suspect that's what's happening and will continue to occur over the next month.

 

Easterly wind anomalies redeveloping around 90W and over to the SA coastline will like cause 1+2 to eventually re-weaken in the next 10 days or so after some warming in the past 3-4 days. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The historical data for strong El Niño events suggests that on a monthly basis, Region 1+2 would probably see a continued slow decline in anomalies through the rest of the fall, even as some week-to-week fluctuations occur. I suspect that's what's happening and will continue to occur over the next month.

Well, later this month, we should see some effect in the eastern regions as the Kelvin wave generated by the September/October WWBs surfaces... then it should shift west in December

[snowman19]

The historical data for strong El Niño events suggests that on a monthly basis, Region 1+2 would probably see a continued slow decline in anomalies through the rest of the fall, even as some week-to-week fluctuations occur. I suspect that's what's happening and will continue to occur over the next month.

Although it's not as warm as 97, region 1+2 just had the 2nd warmest October in recorded history, 2nd only to 1997: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/661689485697134592 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/661689827528679424

[The_Global_Warmer]

The better guidance is showing you where this is going. What is it with the CFS trash bag love affair.

1.2 over the last 5 weeks.

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.2

2.3

Not exactly the exploding some have been looking for. This region top ticked 2.9 on July 9th then by early Aug it declined to 1.7.

Every time this area has warms it reverses shortly thereafter.

What an attempt to make chicken soup out of chicken sh**

The same can be said for the huge over emphasis on the tiny 1-2 block.

More importantly ocean temps need to be above 28C to fire off convection.

Nevertheless the aforementioned enso 1-2 warming is ramping up.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Easterly wind anomalies redeveloping around 90W and over to the SA coastline will like cause 1+2 to eventually re-weaken in the next 10 days or so after some warming in the past 3-4 days.

Not really seeing that on this chart at least.

Positive anomalies are pretty weak.

But this does show positive anomalies

[JC-CT]

The same can be said for the huge over emphasis on the tiny 1-2 block.

Nevertheless the aforementioned enso 1-2 warming is ramping up.

Lol

[PB GFI]

The same can be said for the huge over emphasis on the tiny 1-2 block.

More importantly ocean temps need to be above 28C to fire off convection.

Nevertheless the aforementioned enso 1-2 warming is ramping up.

For 4 months I have opined 1,000 times how this was going to be a strong basin wide NINO and how the entire basin would roast and to watch for R 4 to head towards record territory.

YOU busted in here 5 weeks ago and ONLY focused on 1.2. There have only been 2 posters that focused on 1.2 , you and snowman.

So much so after every one of your posts snowman (fully engorged ) would follow up your posts with an obscure tweet about how Peru was about to catch fire.

The way I see it , you owe snowman an apology for leaving him high and dry.

We always knew this was a basin wide monster. Welcome aboard.

[bluewave]

This event has actually become even more basin-wide in October as those +3C anomalies

increased in coverage and pushed further west past 160W.

 

 

[PB GFI]

This event has actually become even more basin-wide in October as those +3C anomalies

increased in coverage and pushed further west past 160W.

 

CQ93KmMUEAAnkUg.png-large.png

 

navy-anom-bb.gif

Agee Chris , look how this has " exploded ' west.

[bluewave]

Agee Chris , look how this has " exploded ' west.

 

Yeah, not having the warm anomaly pool pushed up against to coast of South America allowed those

+3C or greater departures to expand further west. It also kept Nino 1+2 below the 4C+ departures

that were common in 1997.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Although it's not as warm as 97, region 1+2 just had the 2nd warmest October in recorded history, 2nd only to 1997: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/661689485697134592 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/661689827528679424

 

The anomalies were much lower than they were in October 1997. Moreover, they appeared to indicate that the secondary peak has already occurred on a monthly basis. The idea that the secondary peak has occurred was more pronounced on the weekly anomalies. If past experience with strong El Niño events is representative, the November anomaly should be somewhat lower than the October one. The December anomaly will likely be somewhat lower than the November one with perhaps a somewhat larger decline. Some week-to-week fluctuations are likely.

 

Here's how the current El Niño compares to past strong ones (since 1950) for ENSO Region 1+2:

 

Historic experience and the modeling (even tempering the CFSv2's much more aggressive drop) all suggest that the current ENSO event is very unlikely to shift from a basin-wide event into an East-based one. Moreover, Regions 3.4 and 4 may see their warm anomalies increase a little more even as Region 1+2 experiences slowly cooling anomalies.

[uncle W]

mei index number down to 2.225 from 2.527...

[donsutherland1]

ERSSTv4 Tri-Monthly Anomalies:

 

July-August-September: +1.49°C (was revised up from +1.46°C)

August-September-October: +1.70°C (the mean figure from the past strong El Niño events based on the JAS figure was +1.71°C)

 

The September-October-November mean figure from the past strong El Niño events using the just-reported +1.70°C anomaly for August-September-October is +1.87°C. The peak tri-monthly figure remained unchanged somewhere in the +2.0°C to +2.2°C range.

 

All said, the evolution of the current El Niño event remains reasonably consistent with a composite from past strong El Niño events. That suggests it will likely see a peak in either the October-November-December or November-December-January tri-monthly periods. It still appears more likely than not to fall just short of the 1997-98 peak tri-monthly anomaly of +2.26°C.

 

 

Note: The above information is based on the ERSSTv4 data set, not the earlier OISSTv2 data set.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Classic warming look off the SA coast in the enso 1-2 region.

Wall to wall nino dominance

[alwaysready126]

Classic warming look off the SA coast in the enso 1-2 region.

Wall to wall nino dominance

by classic, do you mean its like this?  c'mon man.....  

[Deck Pic]

As Don mentioned, new ONI out for ASO is 1.703...Note they adjusted SEP up from 1.68 to 1.75 which makes sense...it was clearly depressed too low...wouldn't be surprised to see another adjustment...2nd strongest of modern record behind 1997's 2.0

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[alwaysready126]

also of interest to me is the fact that warm anomalies go all the way to the Solomon Islands, albeit minor warming.  In 1997 the warming basically shut off just west of the dateline.  This winter IMHO has great potential for the EC.

[PB GFI]

ASO/ONI

 

No shame in being in 2nd place .

Great basin wide event . 

 

1997   2

 

2015  1.7   My peak back in May was 2 . I still like that call . 

1965  1.6

1987  1.6

1972  1.5

[Deck Pic]

Kind of don't understand how OISST for OCT is almost identical to 97 and yet it translates to a much lower ERSST reading for October...the norms are static for the first, and the 2nd is using the same baseline temp for each of those years...latest OISST weekly indicate we're running the same as 97...I wouldn't take ERSST seriously...this Nino is 97 strength..