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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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I don't know much about the intricacies of meteorology that dictate ENSO fluctuations...you know more than I do.

 

I just know east-based sucks lol

I highly doubt that... but I always appreciate when people think I'm smarter than I am :)

 

I'm just skeptical about the magnitude of a westward shift purely because of how the models have performed over the past few months. I don't doubt that it'll happen (Nino 4 warming at least a bit), but time is running out... and it's probably not gonna warm to the same point as if the models were right in the first place when they thought it would start later in the summer. They were expecting a gradual warming... which never happened. Now we'd have to get a big spike in Nino 4 to get to the levels once forecasted. I think this is just basic logic. This is why I'm not throwing out CFS's solution... it has a more realistic (IMO) Tropical Pacific setup based on trends. That's not to say I believe its temp solution for the winter either.

 

I do think it's funny that people are still talking about Modokis. I think that's just as likely as an east-based Nino at this point (i.e., no shot in hell)

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Westward shift ? That's only been happening since oh I don't know JUNE.....

All one has to do is look at the SST s and see how large the above normal anomalies stretch west of 120. The shift west has been happening for the last 8 weeks . Region 3 and 3.4 are roasting .

Region 4 is plus 1C which is really warm for that region.

Go back to May and look at this NINOs evolution and let us know if you don't see. " west" .

This is not hard stuff.

WSI doesn't mean Modoki SST wise/ I am sure they know the definition there no ? So they must mean in terms of forcing.

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I highly doubt that... but I always appreciate when people think I'm smarter than I am :)

 

I'm just skeptical about the magnitude of a westward shift purely because of how the models have performed over the past few months. I don't doubt that it'll happen (Nino 4 warming at least a bit), but time is running out... and it's probably not gonna warm to the same point as if the models were right in the first place when they thought it would start later in the summer. They were expecting a gradual warming... which never happened. Now we'd have to get a big spike in Nino 4 to get to the levels once forecasted. I think this is just basic logic. This is why I'm not throwing out CFS's solution... it has a more realistic (IMO) Tropical Pacific setup based on trends. That's not to say I believe its temp solution for the winter either.

 

I do think it's funny that people are still talking about Modokis. I think that's just as likely as an east-based Nino at this point (i.e., no shot in hell)

I Didn't say that you were smarter than....I said that you no more about kelvin waves, etc....those relatively obscure facets do not interest me much.

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Westward shift ? That's only been happening since oh I don't know JUNE.....

All one has to do is look at the SST s and see how large the above normal anomalies stretch west of 120. The shift west has been happening for the last 8 weeks . Region 3 and 3.4 are roasting .

Region 4 is plus 1C which is really warm for that region.

Go back to May and look at this NINOs evolution and let us know if you don't see. " west" .

This is not hard stuff.

WSI doesn't mean Modoki SST wise/ I am sure they know the definition there no ? So they must mean in terms of forcing.

Fine but I'm focusing on Nino 4. Yes, 1C is warm for that region... but it's defied all of the models by not warming up past that so far. It's cooler than all of the models thought it would be by now.

 

I Didn't say that you were smarter than....I said that you no more about kelvin waves, etc....those relatively obscure facets do not interest me much.

The only thing I know about kelvin waves is that they start with a WWB. :lol:

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Fine but I'm focusing on Nino 4. Yes, 1C is warm for that region... but it's defied all of the models by not warming up past that so far. It's cooler than all of the models thought it would be by now.

 

The only thing I know about kelvin waves is that they start with a WWB. :lol:

This is the strongest basin wide NINO the small sampled size analogs have recorded. The CFS had the 3.4 region heading towards 3C but we ended up 2.2 C plus in R 3 and 3.4 was still a big time warm anamoly .( and still may warm a bit ) , before we retrace post N D .

Yes the 4 region was modeled to head towards 1.5C but 1C is warm for that region and the models were just seeing the immense heat /potential in the basin.

My point is the models did a good job seeing the transfer of the heat west , so if the models are at least correct with the placement of the actual forcing with a strong NEG S of Aleutians then all is not lost

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This is the strongest basin wide NINO the small sampled size analogs have recorded. The CFS had the 3.4 region heading towards 3C but we ended up 2.2 C plus in R 3 and 3.4 was still a big time warm anamoly .( and still may warm a bit ) , before we retrace post N D .

Yes the 4 region was modeled to head towards 1.5C but 1C is warm for that region and the models were just seeing the immense heat /potential in the basin.

My point is the models did a good job seeing the transfer of the heat west , so if the models are at least correct with the placement of the actual forcing with a strong NEG S of Aleutians then all is not lost

The problem is that the only model that has Nino 4 peaking at 1.5C is the one that essentially torches this winter. JAMSTEC and all of the other models have Nino 4 getting much warmer... which is why the forcing on those models are further west than CFS... thus, a cooler winter. But are those models handling the west Tropical Pacific correctly (Nino 4)? I'd argue not because even the CFS was way off with Nino 4. It really says something if the CFS was way too warm in that region because it was the most modest. I think CFS is catching on to the Nino 4 trends... will be curious to see if this month's JAMSTEC and the BoM update does also. It sucks that they're only updated once a month.

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The problem is that the only model that has Nino 4 peaking at 1.5C is the one that essentially torches this winter. JAMSTEC and all of the other models have Nino 4 getting much warmer... which is why the forcing on those models are further west than CFS... thus, a cooler winter. But are those models handling the west Tropical Pacific correctly (Nino 4)? I'd argue not because even the CFS was way off with Nino 4. It really says something if the CFS was way too warm in that region because it was the most modest. I think CFS is catching on to the Nino 4 trends... will be curious to see if this month's JAMSTEC and the BoM update does also. It sucks that they're only updated once a month.

The colder seasonal models all have a deeper NEG south of the Aleutians and further west , the further west that neg is the further west it will pull the heights in Canada ultimately it centers it west of Hudson bay.

The CFS may be too far east in the EPO region and it was an error many of us picked up on last year as it kept progressing the trough through and kept losing the pos PNA .

The CFS increase higher heights east of HB and therefore it cuts off the N Jet.

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The colder seasonal models all have a deeper NEG south of the Aleutians and further west , the further west that neg is the further west it will pull the heights in Canada ultimately it centers it west of Hudson bay.

The CFS may be too far east in the EPO region and it was an error many of us picked up on last year as it kept progressing the trough through and kept losing the pos PNA .

The CFS increase higher heights east of HB and therefore it cuts off the N Jet.

Yeah that's my point. CFS has the Nino forcing further east than most of the models... that's why it has the Nino-forced trough further east. This is probably because it doesn't have the Tropical West Pacific as warm as the rest of the models.

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Doesnt NASA have to 3c anomaly past the dateline? Lol

It does... so does CMC2; the only other cold winter model on this page.

 

fLHTmDR.png

MFTjb9n.png

 

JAMSTEC's August update has Nino 4 probably in the upper 1's, maybe lower 2's. I don't have an actual value for that... I'm just eyeballing it and guessing. CFS has a peak at about 1.4C.. down from the near-2C peak it had a month ago.

 

I do hope that people realize I'm strictly talking about the Nino here. It's not that I believe JAMSTEC or CFS's solutions for the US winter... just talking about Nino. 

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Looking at the latest TAO buoy data for region 3.4 it appears to have warmed up to +2.4C now

If the TAO is correct and it's usually very accurate, we are going into the climatological Nino strengthening period ahead of where 1997 was in mid September. Going into mid September with region 3.4 at +2.4C already, is incredible

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If one examines the most recent weekly data, one finds that ENSO Region 1+2 has warmed +0.5°C over the past two weeks. The latest weekly anomaly is +2.2°C above normal (OISSTv2).

 

That some rebound has occurred is consistent with past strong El Niño events in which there was a secondary peak. Typically, the secondary peak has wound up lower than the initial one (+3.3°C for the current El Niño event). The latest CFSv2 ensemble members are now arguing strongly for a secondary peak after that guidance had previously abandoned the idea.

 

Warmer anomalies in this region would tend to reduce prospects for a colder than normal winter and prospect for above normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic states northward. However, as previously noted, Region 1+2 is highly volatile and difficult to forecast. So, one should not automatically write off the winter just because a fairly typical secondary peak now appears increasingly likely.

 

If one looks further out, one sees tremendous spread among the ensemble members, including the most recent ones. The most recent ensemble members are initially tightly clustered for a secondary peak (somewhere between +2.3°C to +2.5°C, though weekly fluctuations could wind up somewhat higher). However by January, the most recent ensemble members have a spread of 1.5°C to 2.0°C. There would be a large difference between Region 1+2 anomalies near +0.5°C and those just over +2.0°C.

 

Where there is agreement is that beyond October, the general idea is that Region 1+2 anomalies should be cooling.

 

CFSv209112015.jpg

 

IMO, we should have a much better idea by some time in October. Should October witness Region 1+2 anomalies approaching or exceeding their initial peak, that outcome would suggest a much warmer winter would become increasingly likely. Should October witness an appreciable decline in such anomalies following a secondary peak, the idea of a better winter (perhaps a warm start in December followed by colder conditions in January and beyond coupled with increased snowfall prospects) would appear more likely. A rapid cooling of Region 1+2 in which that region's anomaly heads toward +1.0°C (as depicted on a few of the most recent ensemble members) could indicate the potential for a winter with above to much above normal snowfall.

 

My general thinking still leans in favor of the middle outcome right now with a turn toward colder weather and increased snowfall opportunities. A very warm December could still result in a warmer than average December-February period under such a scenario. That the PDO+ is likely to persist through much or all of the winter (favoring a PNA+ tendency) and the possibility of more frequent AO- blocking exists contributes to my current thinking, which will be reviewed and revised, if necessary, depending on how the ENSO event evolves from now through at least mid-October.

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Most of the models don't peak Nino 4 until November, so we have plenty of time to see how well the various models do.

We really only have 1 more update, excluding September's, to get an idea of what to expect with the Nino. By the time November rolls around, whatever's gonna happen is already in motion.

 

Time has flied.

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Don , dynamite post. I think many of us share the same idea here.

I favor an Above Normal DEC and a colder snowier second half . Good Jan , Better Feb .

We will see

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Remember that Nino 4 records are lower than the other areas. So the current record

levels for August don't need to rise that much further for the all time Nino 4 record

from November-February.

 

Official ersst v4

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii

 

Nino 4 August temps and warmest November-February monthly readings

 

................A.........N-F

57-58...-0.03....+0.98

68-69...-0.17....+0.90

94-95..+0.76....+0.93

02-03..+0.71....+0.96

04-05..+0.60....+0.93

09-10..+0.57....+1.15..record

14-15..+0.79......???

 

The model forecasts are using the oisstv2 which had +0.98 in August

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

I'm aware of that... but again... the reason why CFS is so warm is because the Aleutian low is further east... which is a product of the forcing being further east, even though Nino 4 shatters the record. My point is, if Nino 4 doesn't warm to the extent that JAMSTEC and other models have (upper 1's, possibly lower 2's), then the forcing may end up further east.  

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Don , dynamite post. I think many of us share the same idea here.

I favor an Above Normal DEC and a colder snowier second half . Good Jan , Better Feb .

We will see

Thanks PB GFI. So far, there have been no big surprises on how things look to evolve. It will be fun to see what happens in coming weeks and beyond.

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In any event, you can see how strong the forcing is around 130W right now.

The Aleutian low is displaced pretty far east over the Pacific Northwest

pumping the ridge over the Northeast now. So the key to the winter

forecast will be getting the forcing to shift far enough west so

the other models win out over the CFS.

VP.gif

500.gif

f120.gif

As long as by the time winter comes and the low shifts back to the Aleutians I'll be fine with AN temps for most of the fall

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In any event, you can see how strong the forcing is around 130W right now.

The Aleutian low is displaced pretty far east over the Pacific Northwest

pumping the ridge over the Northeast now. So the key to the winter

forecast will be getting the forcing to shift far enough west so

the other models win out over the CFS.

VP.gif

500.gif

f120.gif

As has been the case all summer and still is right now, we have very strong east-based forcing. You definitely don't want to still have this same look 8 weeks from now (November)

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soi minimums ...

day.....1997...2015 soi minimums...

086...-38.04..........076...-35.90

101...-38.78..........098...-31.15

124...-37.85..........129...-46.94

143...-41.87..........135...-33.15

151...-85.72..........143...-17.75

162...-49.99..........156...-04.71

168...-61.70..........166....10.75

180...-21.54..........177...-48.73

188....02.84..........188....13.48

197...-09.84..........197...-31.46

204...-34.78..........204...-11.39

215...-15.82..........215...-37.87

233...-33.88..........233...-21.85

254...-17.27..........254...-33.75

260...-26.63..........260...-04.93

278...-32.98..........276...-49.77

308...-56.59..........308...-11.65

331...-44.58..........321....11.51

032...-77.60

093...-52.94

120...-53.83

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Our patterns have been known to lock into place for a very long time. I wonder if this new pattern sticks around through winter.

I was thinking more along the lines of the next 10 years.

As a matter of fact , throw your shovel out , It may never snow again.

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I was thinking more along the lines of the next 10 years.

As a matter of fact , throw your shovel out , It may never snow again.

Sounds good no more shoveling. However Snowgoose mentioned the AMO shift which could revert our winters back to the 80s early 90s era.

Obviously our hot streak of snowy winters will have to end at some point. I don't think it'll be this year though, probably next year.

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Sounds good no more shoveling. However Snowgoose mentioned the AMO shift which could revert our winters back to the 80s early 90s era.

Obviously our hot streak of snowy winters will have to end at some point. I don't think it'll be this year though, probably next year.

Nothing will last forever. Chris and I speak about the 80s thru early 90s period all the time , I've seen stretches of duds .

Will sck when we flip . The bigger point however is we are not locking this pattern in through March .

The entire evolution of this pattern retrogrades west once past N

And that will pull the trough west in the GOA and the ridge west in Canada .

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Sounds good no more shoveling. However Snowgoose mentioned the AMO shift which could revert our winters back to the 80s early 90s era.

 

 

 

Can you (or anyone) provide statistical evidence of a robust AMO-NAO correlation, or scientific paper(s) demonstrating that relationship? Because I've seen this idea tossed around quite a bit on the boards, yet there's not much support for the hypothesis. If one regionalizes the Atlantic SST's, there's a much stronger relationship; however, the AMO modality overall (+/-) doesn't have much correlation to NAO variance.

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As has been the case all summer and still is right now, we have very strong east-based forcing. You definitely don't want to still have this same look 8 weeks from now (November)

 

The tropical convection pattern in August was further west than July (centered closer to 140W rather than 130W); however, I agree that the maintenance of that regime would not be favorable. The next several weeks will be quite telling in terms of the direction we head.

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