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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Add the UKMET @ 500 to the Euro seasonal , NMME , NASA , SST analog , JAMSTEC @500 D-F. remember J- M look even better on all but the CFS .

Notice how the neg is pulled west near the Aleutians along with the highest heights to the WEST of Hudson bay .

yB2a3I1.png

Thank you PB GFI. Things may be looking up at this rate.

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It's looking good for us! CFS blows. It looks like the vortex in the goa will shift west eventually

It's way too early to know what will happen. We'll have a much better idea what will happen and who will be right next month.

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It's looking good for us! CFS blows. It looks like the vortex in the goa will shift west eventually

I don't put stock into any of those forecasts. Maybe the CFS will be right, maybe it won't. Fact is by the 1st week of November we should have a real good idea of where we are headed by watching where the niño tropical convective forcing cell sets up and if we have a big GOA/AK vortex at that point. The north PAC ssta evolution needs to be watched as well. It's all wait and see now

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Positive PDO still in place, cold pool of water off of greenland, blocking occured during July correlates to blocking the following winter. Yes we have a strong el nino, nothing like 97-98 .. El nino is ONE factor but there are others that go into the equation. I like our chances right now.. 

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Here is the new SEPT JAMSTEC , it is in line with the UKMET -NASA-NMME - EURO seasonal and SST analog .

All vs the CFS .

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

tprep.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

ssta.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

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Here is the new SEPT JAMSTEC , is in line with the UKMET -NASA-NMME - EURO seasonal and SST analog .

All vs the CFS .

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

tprep.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

ssta.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

This could mean that the CFS has once again overlooked something. Most likely the possible retrograding trough from the PNW.

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The CFS has ZERO support and that should be a red flag to those who have sided with it . 

 

I am not saying it has to be wrong , but right now  there is just overwhelming guidance against it .

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The CFS has ZERO support and that should be a red flag to those who have sided with it .

I am not saying it has to be wrong , but right now there is just overwhelming guidance against it .

Yup. The CFS never did well with October anyway. You can check the past two October's and see that it performed horridly.

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Model interpretation - not a forecast:

 

The cold temperature anomalies in Western Europe / UK implicate a strong west based -NAO verbatim, with the warmest temperature departures over the Davis Straights, extending as far south as New England. However, most of the Nation being normal to cooler than normal seems to suggest something beyond the rain-chilled / STJ induced airmasses as seen in the 82-83/97-98 temperature anomaly maps. The warmth depicted over Alaska implies a fairly far SW oriented Aleutian trough inducing a -EPO ridge. My interpretation is that the JAMSTEC indicates a fairly robust winter when considering the temps and pcpn.

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Model interpretation - not a forecast:

The cold temperature anomalies in Western Europe / UK implicate a strong west based -NAO verbatim, with the warmest temperature departures over the Davis Straights, extending as far south as New England. However, most of the Nation being normal to cooler than normal seems to suggest something beyond the rain-chilled / STJ induced airmasses as seen in the 82-83/97-98 temperature anomaly maps. The warmth depicted over Alaska implies a fairly far SW oriented Aleutian trough inducing a -EPO ridge. My interpretation is that the JAMSTEC indicates a fairly robust winter when considering the temps and pcpn.

Wouldn't a west based -NAO cause suppression?

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The latest JAMSTEC is actually a compromise between the warmer CFS and some of the other 

colder guidance. Notice how in the latest run it tries to show the ridging nosing down toward

the East Coast from Canada. The run last month had the ridge further back in Western Canada

west of Hudson Bay. This run you can make out that ridge extending a little further into the

Northeast. But it's still shaded more to the colder guidance.

 

 

 

 

The difference appears to be that it's strengthening the -NAO height anomaly as compared to the previous run, which naturally will cause New England to warm slightly, similar to 09-10's robust blocking. Usually the coldest departures are further south in very potent high latitude blocking patterns.

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Wouldn't a west based -NAO cause suppression?

 

 

Difficult to determine at this juncture, and based only upon temperature projection maps. It all depends on the magnitude and orientation of high-latitude blocking features. A suppression pattern for one/more cities on the East Coast could be a very active pattern for other locations.

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The other thing we'll need to monitor is if Nino 4 can catch up to some of the forecasts that have been made.

So far, NINO 4 is lagging the forecasts made several months ago. We'll have to wait and see how things verify 

the next few months to get a handle on where the strongest winter Nino forcing will set up. It will make

a big difference whether the strongest winter forcing is in Nino 3.4 or 4. So far Nino 3.4 OISSTv2 forecasts

have been closer than 4.

 

attachicon.gifget_legacy_plot-atls16-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zdaeE9.gif

 

attachicon.gifget_legacy_plot-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-S_zdLo.gif

I'm surprised it warmed Nino 4 even more when it's been so defiant to warm at all. It's the JAMSTEC though so I'm not gonna throw it away.

 

I wish JAMSTEC had 500mb height anomalies.

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FWIW, below are scenarios were the current ENSO event to evolve along the lines of the past strong El Niño events since 1950:

 

ENSO09162015.jpg

 

The mean peak tri-monthly ONI anomaly would come to +2.1°C. If one removes the lowest and highest cases, the mean peak tri-monthly anomaly would come out to just under +1.9°C. This outcome would be reasonably close to the dynamical model consensus when one statistically adjusts it for ERSSTv4 (such forecasts are still based on the OISSTv2 dataset).

 

The mean peak on the historical data would occur in the November-January tri-monthly period, but that period would be little changed from the preceding October-December tri-monthly period. Both the statistical and dynamical guidance show essentially identical October-December and November-January tri-monthly figures when the current event is forecast to peak.

 

The June-August tri-monthly figure was +1.22°C. Using the same data, the July-September figure would come in at around +1.45°C (+1.46°C if one excludes the lowest and highest individual cases).

 

All figures are ERSSTv4 figures.

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The difference appears to be that it's strengthening the -NAO height anomaly as compared to the previous run, which naturally will cause New England to warm slightly, similar to 09-10's robust blocking. Usually the coldest departures are further south in very potent high latitude blocking patterns.

I'd take that set up again.

 

No way we would fare as poorly.

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I think what happens the next several months in regard to how much Nino 4 warming we get will be key

to where the best winter forcing sets up. Not sure what the reason is for the models doing better

with Nino 3.4  than Nino 4 to date. The near record forcing that we are getting makes the

distinction important between 3 to 3.4 and 4.

Completely agreed. Although they're fun to look at, sometimes you gotta step away from the models and just watch and wait what happens in the relative short-term.

 

 

I'd take that set up again.

 

No way we would fare as poorly.

 

It's funny how y'all talk about 09-10 differently from what I'm used to, being from the Midwest. 09-10 is synonymous with legendary here... to you guys, it's a "what could've been". :lol:

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Completely agreed. Although they're fun to look at, sometimes you gotta step away from the models and just watch and wait what happens in the relative short-term.

 

 
 

It's funny how y'all talk about 09-10 differently from what I'm used to, being from the Midwest. 09-10 is synonymous with legendary here... to you guys, it's a "what could've been". :lol:

MA is where it was extraordinary.

 

E NE it was essentially a clinic in how to achieve normal in the most excruciating manner imaginable.

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MA is where it was extraordinary.

E NE it was essentially a clinic in how to achieve normal in the most excruciating manner imaginable.

We missed out alot here in February as well until the retrograde storm. Snowicane as it is called.

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The other thing we'll need to monitor is if Nino 4 can catch up to some of the forecasts that have been made.

So far, NINO 4 is lagging the forecasts made several months ago. We'll have to wait and see how things verify

the next few months to get a handle on where the strongest winter Nino forcing will set up. It will make

a big difference whether the strongest winter forcing is in Nino 3.4 or 4. So far Nino 3.4 OISSTv2 forecasts

have been closer than 4.

get_legacy_plot-atls16-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zdaeE9.gif

get_legacy_plot-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-S_zdLo.gif

Quite the opposite, based on the latest TAO, Nino region 4 appears to have cooled even more right now

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I think what happens the next several months in regard to how much Nino 4 warming we get will be key

to where the best winter forcing sets up. Not sure what the reason is for the models doing better

with Nino 3.4  than Nino 4 to date. The near record forcing that we are getting makes the

distinction important between 3 to 3.4 and 4.

It's a little soon, but I'm beginning to wonder whether the warmest anomalies will be centered in Regions 3 and 3.4 rather than Regions 3.4 and 4. The coming weeks will provide insight, but the delayed warming in Region 4 bears watching.

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It's a little soon, but I'm beginning to wonder whether the warmest anomalies will be centered in Regions 3 and 3.4 rather than Regions 3.4 and 4. The coming weeks will provide insight, but the delayed warming in Region 4 bears watching.

Yes , the warmest waters are between 100 and 140 - that`s all 3 and 3.4 region .

 

But R 4 is plus 1C and that is close to record warmth 

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Model interpretation - not a forecast:

 

The cold temperature anomalies in Western Europe / UK implicate a strong west based -NAO verbatim, with the warmest temperature departures over the Davis Straights, extending as far south as New England. However, most of the Nation being normal to cooler than normal seems to suggest something beyond the rain-chilled / STJ induced airmasses as seen in the 82-83/97-98 temperature anomaly maps. The warmth depicted over Alaska implies a fairly far SW oriented Aleutian trough inducing a -EPO ridge. My interpretation is that the JAMSTEC indicates a fairly robust winter when considering the temps and pcpn.

 

Unfortunately a strong -NAO with a GOA vortex does nothing really.  ORH over in the SNE forum often has to bring people down to earth on that idea and uses late December 01 as an example where the NAO tanked but we were still above normal.

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Yes , the warmest waters are between 100 and 140 - that`s all 3 and 3.4 region .

But R 4 is plus 1C and that is close to record warmth

Look at the latest TAO, it looks below +1 now and continuing to cool. You are right though, the greatest warmth is regions 3 and 3.4

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Unfortunately a strong -NAO with a GOA vortex does nothing really.  ORH over in the SNE forum often has to bring people down to earth on that idea and uses late December 01 as an example where the NAO tanked but we were still above normal.

 

 

I hope this one works , in this case a - NAO coupled with a -EPO/+PNA ( just look at 500 ) .

You will sink cold air to the base of the trough in the SE. 

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Wasn't this always supposed to be a basin-wide, non modoki?

 

Why the surprise?

 

After last year's debacle with the Nino that never formed I don't think anyone wanted to take any guesses.  I'm still not sure how this thing evolves in the next 2-3 months although confidence is at least higher now it would not surprise me if this weakens faster than some models think, that has been the tendency the last few years where El Ninos find ways to not be as strong as expected.

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