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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Bluewave, thought you would find this interesting, here is a map comparing this year to 1997 and 1982 up until this point of the year. It shows where the main Nino tropical convective forcing cell is. This year is almost identical to 1997, in fact it's maybe even a tad further east. Link: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/643916292446158849

 

 

Realize, however, that the intersection of analog years at a particular point does not necessarily portend the maintenance of a close relationship. I would agree in that the maintenance of similarly oriented tropical forcing through the cold season likely would not be conducive [for the East's winter]; however, this is often a changeable period, so we'll have to see how it progresses. Recent tropical forcing has shifted wwd compared to the mean pattern of late spring / early summer.

 

 

2eaugb6.gif

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Would like to see the NEPAC pattern change in October and November to have more 

confidence in the winter forecast. The current Aleutian ridge...West Coast trough

is the reverse of what the colder winter guidance has for the fall. Even the JMA

September outlook had the Aleutian trough...West Coast ridge pattern for

September and SON.

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

 

attachicon.gifY201508.D0900_gl0.png

 

attachicon.gifSON.png

 

attachicon.gifcahgt_anom.1.gif

 

attachicon.gifcahgt_anom.3.gif

 

 

Like we said yesterday the CFS has to have it`s nose pressed up against the glass to see the pattern.

 

These are the latest runs on the CFS for OCT and NOV, it too sees the backing of the ridge .

 

( At least it does on this run ) . 

post-7472-0-17416600-1442499240_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-85989600-1442499247_thumb.pn

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the AO and NAO continue to be negative on average...the forecast is more of the same...I hope it continues on the negative side for both...If they are both negative this winter the chances for a cold and snowy winter will increase...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

2006 was like that....then it flipped in November and essentially stayed that was until Feb.

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2006 was like that....then it flipped in November and essentially stayed that was until Feb.

the ao has been lower this year...it was pretty negative in October 2006 only...the nao was quite negative from Aug-Oct...

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the ao has been lower this year...it was pretty negative in October 2006 only...the nao was quite negative from Aug-Oct...

I thought WSI's findings only suggested a negative phase in July can correlate to a negative phase in DJF; nothing to do with the "strength" of the negativity

 

(for the record, July 2006 AO/NAO was slightly positive)

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There's actually an inverse correlation between the NAO modality in October and the ensuing DJF NAO modality (coefficient of about 0.64), so statistically speaking, I'd actually prefer that we took a temporary break from the NAO domain blocking in the month of October.

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Yeah. It probably did. Doesn't look like anymore notable spikes in Niño 1+2 anytime soon.

Do you actually go and look at the data to see what is actually going on or do you just say what you hope? Look at this, the Kelvin Wave is beginning to emerge in Nino 1+2 as we speak and it is undergoing very rapid warming. Here is the latest SSTS in case you think I'm lying to you. Link 1: inhttps://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/644526240397926400 Link 2: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/644525639257694208 Anomalies of over +4, near +5 showing up as of today's update...

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Do you actually go and look at the data to see what is actually going on or do you just say what you hope? Look at this, the Kelvin Wave is beginning to emerge in Nino 1+2 as we speak and it is undergoing very rapid warming. Here is the latest SSTS in case you think I'm lying to you. Link 1: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/644526240397926400. Link 2: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/644525639257694208 Anomalies of over +4, near +5 showing up as of today's update...

It's all based on OBS. That spike could last for less than a week and then weaken. All I'm seeing is the warm spikes propagating westward and the feed coming from Niño 1+2.

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Do you actually go and look at the data to see what is actually going on or do you just say what you hope? Look at this, the Kelvin Wave is beginning to emerge in Nino 1+2 as we speak and it is undergoing very rapid warming. Here is the latest SSTS in case you think I'm lying to you. Link 1: inhttps://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/644526240397926400 Link 2: https://twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/644525639257694208 Anomalies of over +4, near +5 showing up as of today's update...

 

 

You keep using words like EXPLOSIVE AND RAPID , yet the verified anomalies in this region has fallen since early Aug  You have been yelling east based since MAY and we explained why that was going to be the case .  Yes there is some plus 4C water in the region but it`s small and its tucked in and has not expanded like the basin has . 

 

post-7472-0-99222800-1441648972.png

 

 

We explained how this region is volatile and you have seen the region go from 2.7 - 2.4 -1.8- 2 - 2.2 - 1.9 and the vast majority of the warming has headed and remains in the 3 and 3.4 region .

sstaanim.gif

 

We have been over this , there is more warm water in the EPO region than the 1.2 region and non of us are screaming about it . 

 

I think you are hung on this region and you are missing the bigger picture . The idea of an east based EL Nino died in July and somehow you are the last to know .

 

This is continuing to expand west and is very close to being at it`s peak , then guess what ? Come D , we slide and force in the 3 and 3.4 region on westward . 

 

This is what a true 1.2 region inferno looks like , we look nothing like this now . 

post-322-0-47001900-1442342779.gif

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You keep using words like EXPLOSIVE AND RAPID , yet the verified anomalies in this region has fallen since early Aug You have been yelling east based since MAY and we explained why that was going to be the case . Yes there is some plus 4C water in the region but it`s small and its tucked in and has not expanded like the basin has .

post-7472-0-99222800-1441648972.png

We explained how this region is volatile and you have seen the region go from 2.7 - 2.4 -1.8- 2 - 2.2 - 1.9 and the vast majority of the warming has headed and remains in the 3 and 3.4 region .

sstaanim.gif

We have been over this , there is more warm water in the EPO region than the 1.2 region and non of us are screaming about it .

I think you are hung on this region and you are missing the bigger picture . The idea of an east based EL Nino died in July and somehow you are the last to know .

This is continuing to expand west and is very close to being at it`s peak , then guess what ? Come D , we slide and force in the 3 and 3.4 region on westward .

This is what a true 1.2 region inferno looks like , we look nothing like this now .

post-322-0-47001900-1442342779.gif

Did you look at the animation? Lol You wouldn't call what happened in that region in the last day rapid? And for the 100th time it's a basin wide Nino basin wide, basin wide, basin wide. Just because I pointed out what is going on in region 1+2 does not, repeat again, does not equate to me saying this is east based. From what I see it is not expanding into region 4, the models have been saying region 4 is going to warm for months now, it's the boy who cried wolf at this point, in fact, do me a favor, take a look at the latest TAO, region 4 appears to have started cooling, not warming. And we are not close to the peak, the models clearly have a November/December peak

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Did you look at the animation? Lol You wouldn't call what happened in that region in the last day rapid? And for the 100th time it's a basin wide Nino basin wide, basin wide, basin wide. Just because I pointed out what is going on in region 1+2 does not, repeat again, does not equate to me saying this is east based. From what I see it is not expanding into region 4, the models have been saying region 4 is going to warm for months now, it's the boy who cried wolf at this point, in fact, do me a favor, take a look at the latest TAO, region 4 appears to have started cooling, not warming.

 

You realize Region 4 being close to + 1C  and to date  is close to being a record correct ? 

I think Chris Tom and I have all said the plus 2C never materialized ( and will not ) in R4 . But that will not stop the forcing west of 120 this winter .

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Ripped from Bluewave , 

 

 

 

Nino 4 August temps and warmest November-February monthly readings

 

................A.........N-F

57-58...-0.03....+0.98

68-69...-0.17....+0.90

94-95..+0.76....+0.93

02-03..+0.71....+0.96

04-05..+0.60....+0.93

09-10..+0.57....+1.15..record

14-15..+0.79......???

 

So we will have to wait and see how this look come next month , but R4 @ +1C is really warm for that region .

 

We are all aware it never warmed to what the models thought , bu the models did pick up the near record warmth .

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You realize Region 4 being close to + 1C and to date is close to being a record correct ?

I think Chris Tom and I have all said the plus 2C never materialized ( and will not ) in R4 . But that will not stop the forcing west of 120 this winter .

You know for fact where the forcing will be this winter? With all due respect and I'm not arguing with you, there are no absolutes or guarantees in weather, ever. That said, look at this: lhttps://twitter.com/griteater/status/643916292446158849 Look at where the main Nino forcing is today and the general location it's been in for months now, the same area that the 1997 Nino forcing was in up until this point, in fact, this year it's even a tad further east than 1997. Can it change? Sure, but if we get to November and the forcing looks the same, well you know....

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You know for fact where the forcing will be this winter? With all due respect and I'm not arguing with you, there are no absolutes or guarantees in weather, ever. That said, look at this: lhttps://twitter.com/griteater/status/643916292446158849 Look at where the main Nino forcing is today and the general location it's been in for months now, the same area that the 1997 Nino forcing was in up until this point, in fact, this year it's even a tad further east than 1997. Can it change? Sure, but if we get to November and the forcing looks the same, well you know....

I have not seen any guidance to the contrary.

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There's actually an inverse correlation between the NAO modality in October and the ensuing DJF NAO modality (coefficient of about 0.64), so statistically speaking, I'd actually prefer that we took a temporary break from the NAO domain blocking in the month of October.

Yeah the last 2-3 years it's worked like a charm the NAO I think was negative in October each year then flipped if my memory is right. I seem to recall the NAO being negative in October being a bad thing is more a recent deal in the last 20-25 years or so, prior to that many winters in the 50s-70s had a negative NAO in October

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Yeah the last 2-3 years it's worked like a charm the NAO I think was negative in October each year then flipped if my memory is right. I seem to recall the NAO being negative in October being a bad thing is more a recent deal in the last 20-25 years or so, prior to that many winters in the 50s-70s had a negative NAO in October

Stormchaser Chuck was the first person I recall to suggest the correlation back at Eastern some years ago...06' or 07 I think.

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Yeah the last 2-3 years it's worked like a charm the NAO I think was negative in October each year then flipped if my memory is right. I seem to recall the NAO being negative in October being a bad thing is more a recent deal in the last 20-25 years or so, prior to that many winters in the 50s-70s had a negative NAO in October

I think Novie has a positive correlation.

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You know for fact where the forcing will be this winter? With all due respect and I'm not arguing with you, there are no absolutes or guarantees in weather, ever. That said, look at this: lhttps://twitter.com/griteater/status/643916292446158849 Look at where the main Nino forcing is today and the general location it's been in for months now, the same area that the 1997 Nino forcing was in up until this point, in fact, this year it's even a tad further east than 1997. Can it change? Sure, but if we get to November and the forcing looks the same, well you know....

Dude, I'm sorry....but when one piece of guidance is all alone, we have to assume that the consensus will prevail.

No one should be questioned for adhering to that methodology.

 

I no that you aren't arguing, but no one should be questioned for assuming that the forcing will shift.

But I agree that November is time to worry.

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The latest September IRI runs have increased the maximum intensity of the El Nino: [A] Dynamical mean is now 2.5C peak in region 3.4, and Statistical mean forecasts a peak of 2.2C. The peak is projected to occur in the OND/NDJ trimonthly periods. There's quite a bit of variance within the group which comprises the mean, for example, the KMA suggests a peak of 1.9c in SON, with decline to 1.5c by DJA. On the stronger end of spectrum, the GMAO surges to 3.0c. Believe it or not, the CFS V2 is now one of the cooler dynamical models, relatively, forecasting a 1.8c value for DJF (after a November peak of 2.3c).

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the ao/nao was mostly positive during the 1972-73 winter...I think twice it went negative and helped push a southern storm out to sea...monthly ao/nao averages were positive that winter...

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