Unusual circumstances in progged teleconnections "might" also portent a relatively rare late season snow potential...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, good.

At least my winter wrap up wasn't premature.

 

Better off, anyway because it most likely would have been a 37* rain here.

I'd rather take my chances in a milder regime.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is awfully close to something more interesting early next week.

[Randy4Confluence]

GFS is awfully close to something more interesting early next week.

Yeah, the tilt on that cyclone is ridiculous.

[Damage In Tolland]

Almost April 82.. Almost

[Amped]

Models didn't see the April 2007 setup until about 4 days out. This pattern looks somewhat similar.

[dendrite]

Almost April 82.. Almost

Stevie Wonder agrees.

[nzucker]

GFS is awfully close to something more interesting early next week.

Not sure I agree with Tip...the 4/28 threat has been showing up consistently on modeling. 12z GFS has a 992mb low off OBX at Day 8.

[ma blizzard]

Models didn't see the April 2007 setup until about 4 days out. This pattern looks somewhat similar.

IIRC at 3-4 days out the mid April 2007 storm looked kinda like 12/92 or at least I remember people discussing it 

[ORH_wxman]

IIRC at 3-4 days out the mid April 2007 storm looked kinda like 12/92 or at least I remember people discussing it 

 

 

Yeah it did...more like 5 days out IIRC...but there were a couple runs that were somewhat similar.

 

GGEM is also a very close call on 4/28...

[Typhoon Tip]

Yes yes... some 12z runs still hinting at that date... 

 

It's simply a matter if things break positive or negative... depending on one's point of view.  

 

If by positive, people long to experience one last gasp of winter before the final curtain falls on the show, I just cannot deny the last 24 hours of "trend," which unfortunately for your cause is somewhat against.  Sure it can come back -

 

People tend to take every post as absolute -- not sure why that is... It just doesn't look "AS" interesting in that regard as when the thread went up, is all I was saying.   I think people need to consider the qualification words, like "might" and "could be" more fairly.

 

The snap shot teleconnectors still have a strong -NAO nadior/spike/interval... The fact that it has lessened in length of total time, is true however.  So has the PNA.  I factually demonstrated that; compare recent post with thread start?

 

Just some things to consider...

By the way...how about that GFS 588 dm height node starting to show up in the extended.   I noticed also some tendency to burgeon heights too - though not to this extreme.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Do admit the Euro arriving interesting looking for the 28th... But the stuff about the medium warming appears to be f this up right on schedule.

 

You know...if nothing else, it really underscores how remarkable some of those snow anomalies of the past must have been, as we extract wisdom teeth here to [maybe] no avail ...

[Ginx snewx]

Yea Euro LR is interesting

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro snows

[MarkO]

Looking forward to next Tuesday/Wednesday. Climo wise going to be tough here in Lowell, but I could easily see accumulating snow in the cabin. As a matter of fact, it's snowing up there now above about 1500'.

[Randy4Confluence]

This all makes April go faster....even if it's illusory...which it probably is.

[Typhoon Tip]

This all makes April go faster....even if it's illusory...which it probably is.

 

Hehhh, not sure that's fair really.. 

 

We've been pretty clear all along where the probabilities were sloped with this chill'ish pattern.   People can choose to filter their consumption of the information, and of course there is no stopping those biases.  But no one bringing this stuff to the table led anyone astray in black and white.  

[Randy4Confluence]

Hehhh, not sure that's fair really..

We've been pretty clear all along where the probabilities were sloped with this chill'ish pattern. People can choose to filter their consumption of the information, and of course there is no stopping those biases. But no one bringing this stuff to the table led anyone astray in black and white.

I wasn't referring to yours or any other met's analysis certainly,but the overall chance of it happening. The analysis is always top notch.

[Randy4Confluence]

Did the overnight runs show anything interesting? Or did yesterday's Euro run prove to be another fantastical illusion?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Did the overnight runs show anything interesting? Or did yesterday's Euro run prove to be another fantastical illusion?

Randy, find another hobby. Don't do this to yourself for the next six months.

[Randy4Confluence]

Randy, find another hobby. Don't do this to yourself for the next six months.

lol .... I can handle the twists and turns my friend. I was just following up which is not unreasonable I don't think.

[Amped]

Not snow but gfs and euro agree on a big noreaster.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not snow but gfs and euro agree on a big noreaster.

 

Not for not ... it fits...  

 

Thing is, this period of storminess has been flagged since before this thread even went up... I know that folks don't really interest much in just nor'easter events, when sans snow, but it is what it is..

 

Could still trend cooler as it gets near ...

 

Assuming it holds in the models ... 

 

But as discussed the teleconnectors offer support for this sort of scenario ... 

 

Could also be dramatic for other reasons if some of those intensities are achieved, given to time of year, duration and spring tidal concerns... 

 

Personally I think a good ole stem-wound nor'easter is interesting no matter when it happens.  The GGEM also offers a big wound up durational event ...it looks a tick or two cooler, and thus perhaps snows on the Berks and Monadnocks just estimating off the synoptic charts..   Lot of QPF in that run though...wow... Would be a blue history in the elevations, and a flooder in the valleys... 

[Typhoon Tip]

These models keep flipping all over the place as to whether the 27th - 2nd five days will avail of circumstance.  

 

I suspect the sun and having to integrate daily doses of huge insolation into the medium lower troposphere is playing havoc with things... In mid winter, the type of leading teleconnector spread really would have been closer to a slam dunk with this... 

 

The 00z GGEM went from a ludicrous blue bomb to temps nearing 80 F, ...now, back to one snow chance and a damaging nor'easter.   The GFS and Euro ...while not as wild, are not very useful either.  

 

I guess this means it's spring -

[Damage In Tolland]

We are in big trouble later next week..This looks just like that 3 day May pounder in 2005..frigid, wet, windy

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  2m

2 minutes ago

negative height anomaly aimed at warm eddy nr mid atlantic coast. I'm worried about big noreaster late nxt week

[Ginx snewx]

May 77?

[Damage In Tolland]

May 77?

This looks warmer than that with rain.That was cold core .

[codfishsnowman]

lol the hype train has begun

[ORH_wxman]

This looks warmer than that with rain.That was cold core .

 

 

So is the Euro depiction. This isn't a tropical storm, lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

So is the Euro depiction. This isn't a tropical storm, lol.

Well I know .. But with those warm sst over the gulf stream the possibility is real it transitions to some sort of warm core hybrid

[Ginx snewx]

So is the Euro depiction. This isn't a tropical storm, lol.

Certainly not