Unusual circumstances in progged teleconnections "might" also portent a relatively rare late season snow potential...

[CoastalWx]

Well I know .. But with those warm sst over the gulf stream the possibility is real it transitions to some sort of warm core hybrid

 

 

It's not that easy. Some SSTs a few above normal aren't going to transform it into a warm core system. 

[Ginx snewx]

It's not that easy. Some SSTs a few above normal aren't going to transform it into a warm core system. 

Right, still too far offshore but we could still evolve this into something very interesting.

[Ginx snewx]

A slight stall south of New England for a while would really crank this up and make some very very miserable because of snow

[Damage In Tolland]

A slight stall south of New England for a while would really crank this up and make some very very miserable because of snow

???

[Ginx snewx]

???

????

[Damage In Tolland]

????

You mentioned some would be miserable because of snow with a stall..Stall or no stall..this wouldn't be snow..which is why i was asking why you thought that?

[ORH_wxman]

You mentioned some would be miserable because of snow with a stall..Stall or no stall..this wouldn't be snow..which is why i was asking why you thought that?

 

 

850 temps were like -2C to -3C on the Euro depiction...if it backed west another tick to get better precip in here, that would almost certainly be snow...esp in the more favored terrain spots.

[powderfreak]

850 temps were like -2C to -3C on the Euro depiction...if it backed west another tick to get better precip in here, that would almost certainly be snow...esp in the more favored terrain spots.

Some probably didn't look at models.

[Damage In Tolland]

850 temps were like -2C to -3C on the Euro depiction...if it backed west another tick to get better precip in here, that would almost certainly be snow...esp in the more favored terrain spots.

I think that would be a cold miserable rain except maybe for someone like Peru in the Berks.. We'd really need it to be -4C or colder to realistically entertain snow ideas during the day in early May

[ORH_wxman]

I think that would be a cold miserable rain except maybe for someone like Peru in the Berks.. We'd really need it to be -4C or colder to realistically entertain snow ideas during the day in early May

 

Half of the storm looks like it would be at night.

 

 

It doesn't matter anyway, I agree is very unlikely to snow...but the Euro showed that it definitely was plausible.

[Ginx snewx]

Half of the storm looks like it would be at night.

 

 

It doesn't matter anyway, I agree is very unlikely to snow...but the Euro showed that it definitely was plausible.

wouldn't take much imagination for this to evolve into something memorable for elevations above 996 feet

[Typhoon Tip]

i don't think much is going to come of this in the end... 

The cold pattern, as offered/advertized by the tele's is half over actually... my feeling is that we are in the worst of it, right now.  

 

Yes, it was progged to really be now through May 1, 2...3, but it appears the balance of the guidance sources are really muting the layout under Maritime blocking in tiny seasonal-affliction amounts on every run.  Now, the 28th deal is correcting progressive ...not helping, and what we're left with is an exhausted cold source under a neutralized NAO domain... Everyone back above 850 0 isotherm by D5 on this 12z Euro.  It never sets well with me when the Euro "the dig happy" on D 5 can't even abide its own bias.  Maybe it comes back, but the GFS has scooted that thing for several cycles -- hell, even the GGEM can't get it done.

 

It snowed a couple inches across the lower Lakes two days ago...and we saw one vestigial core of cold air passing through over the last 24 hours... In a sense, there's a lot of success here.  The original discussion, we did point out "Lake/OV/NE" ...  so maybe the epitaph on this era of weather will be all about the butt bang.  Would have been nice to see it snow one last time ...given that the alternative would be...well, what we are getting right now.  

 

There may be one or two more cool plumes, but the trend to not do anything with it is unavoidable.  

[IsentropicLift]

If this would have closed off a few hours sooner the surface low would have rotated right up the coast.

 

[Ginx snewx]

may 77 still on that analog list

[Ginx snewx]

i don't think much is going to come of this in the end... 

The cold pattern, as offered/advertized by the tele's is half over actually... my feeling is that we are in the worst of it, right now.  

 

Yes, it was progged to really be now through May 1, 2...3, but it appears the balance of the guidance sources are really muting the layout under Maritime blocking in tiny seasonal-affliction amounts on every run.  Now, the 28th deal is correcting progressive ...not helping, and what we're left with is an exhausted cold source under a neutralized NAO domain... Everyone back above 850 0 isotherm by D5 on this 12z Euro.  It never sets well with me when the Euro "the dig happy" on D 5 can't even abide its own bias.  Maybe it comes back, but the GFS has scooted that thing for several cycles -- hell, even the GGEM can't get it done.

 

It snowed a couple inches across the lower Lakes two days ago...and we saw one vestigial core of cold air passing through over the last 24 hours... In a sense, there's a lot of success here.  The original discussion, we did point out "Lake/OV/NE" ...  so maybe the epitaph on this era of weather will be all about the butt bang.  Would have been nice to see it snow one last time ...given that the alternative would be...well, what we are getting right now.  

 

There may be one or two more cool plumes, but the trend to not do anything with it is unavoidable.  

there was accumulating snow across VT NH MA ME CT yesterday

[Cold Miser]

wouldn't take much imagination for this to evolve into something memorable for elevations above 996 feet

What about those at 990 feet?

[Ginx snewx]

What about those at 990 feet?

torched, hopefully you didn't miss the reference 

[Typhoon Tip]

Then the 18z GFS comes out as though deliberately to mock me     

[Typhoon Tip]

If this would have closed off a few hours sooner the surface low would have rotated right up the coast.

 

 

 

As is that's actually a fun romp of vengeance against the MA, where always boasts such beautiful weather at this time of year comparable to our rectum up this way...  

 

That narrow ridge spine and low 700mb RH along with COL sfc pp would suggest 73F in high sun, low cloud, no wind gem while it's 46 F and drilling rain in DC.  

[Amped]

The GFS still hows a Manitoba Mauler,  too bad it's not really that cold.. 850mb temps are below 0c however, so that is probably snow on MT Washington.