Tropical Atlantic 2015 speculation/action

[Roger Smith]

It seems too weak to qualify but it will continue to move counter-clockwise and drift west today off the Florida panhandle. There has been a persistent eye feature but no circulation above 20 knots so far. I guess it's just a reflection of an upper level low that shows up on the 500 mb charts.

 

(2 p.m. edit) _ This now has a 10% chance marker on it. Probably too close to the coast now for anything but heavy rainfall.

[wxmx]

Globals have been hinting at BOC development for a few days now.

A disturbance at the tail end of an early season cold front interacting with a TW. Initial development is pretty close to the Mexican coast (around Tampico) and still 5+ days out, which makes any prognosis highly uncertain.

[Cheeznado]

3 runs in a row now of the Euro having a GOM system....

 

[oldlogin]

Two other views

 

[Roger Smith]

TD 8 -- this Henn just may lay an egg, I mean this egg may turn into a Henn. Another big mixing of the Gulf Stream special.

 

Well that explains it, what I read as H e n n was actually H e n r i.

 

Thought it was an odd name but hey, didn't want to make a fuss.

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro back to showing Western Gulf development early next week.

[billgwx]

12z Euro back to showing Western Gulf development early next week.

 

The 12Z Euro ensemble mean also showed a weakness off the SE coast where something might develop.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I'm not used to the Euro giving us fantasy storms very often, but looks like if anything forms in the Gulf now it will be very minor and short lived near coast of Tamaulipas.

[wxmx]

I'm not used to the Euro giving us fantasy storms very often, but looks like if anything forms in the Gulf now it will be very minor and short lived near coast of Tamaulipas.

Yep, all models have dropped any significant development, it appears that the Nern MX ridge will build east and catch any disturbance underneath and send it west, back to land before any significant development (and upper level conditions are marginal as well). Grace remnants may enter the NE GoM, but it appears that conditions will be unfavorable for development.

[Quincy]

The 12Z Euro ensemble mean also showed a weakness off the SE coast where something might develop.

The interesting thing is none of the individual members looked all that impressive. In a recent run, I believe on the 9th, only one member showed anything developing to a sub 1000mb low over there. None were even close to some of the operational scenarios.

[Coach McGuirk]

Just look at how cluttered everything is.

[Amped]

Just look at how cluttered everything is.

The eastern half of the basin seems to be doing okay. The GFS shows another big Cape Verde fish storm.

The western half of the basin is very depressing.

[wxmx]

The low near Tampico is a little better organized, but shear remains pretty high, and time over water will be limited, so no more than a minimal TS is what I would expect...in a nutshell, a potential namewaster

[Derecho!]

NAM and GFS now beginning to vaguely do something with what is apparently remnants of Grace in the central GOM; even UKMET a little bit.

[wxmx]

The Tampico low appears to have reformed a bit to the NE, back over water.  Shear decreased overnight from the 20s (kts) to around 10 kts and some strong convection is in place currently. Inland interaction is the greatest inhibitor of development right now, but if it really reformed back over water and can stay there for the next 6-12 hours, we may get a TD.

 

Not the most exciting news, I know, especially being peak season, but we can only grasp as what's there now.

[Amped]

NHC published an informal review on Erika Forecasts.

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/after-further-review-tropical-storm-erika/

[Ground Scouring]

NHC published an informal review on Erika Forecasts.

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/09/10/after-further-review-tropical-storm-erika/

I really feel that the NHC is too nonchalant about how its forecasts are communicated. In the NHC’s view, consumers, media, and government are responsible for their own behavior. While technically true, taking such a hands-off approach and making incremental, relatively modest changes to the forecast products seems an underwhelming response to a significant problem. The NHC should cater to consumers, not vice versa. Additionally, the media and governments should be held accountable for their own incompetence and/or misinformation.

 

If I were the NHC, I would set up a group of specialists with broad interdisciplinary experience, including in behavioral psychology, communication, and maybe even neurology. This group, located within the NHC but separate from forecasting duties, would aggressively use social media and other levers of communication and direct how the media and government communicate official forecasts to the public. The group would call out, correct, and advise media and government on how to present official forecast products.

 

I would also make significant changes to the products themselves. Personally, I have long inveighed against having the five-day cone as a publicly visible product. Although five-day errors, both with the track and intensity, have diminished in recent years, uncertainty is quite high even two or three days out, especially with weaker systems like Erika. I think that the NHC should continue to use the five-day cone as an experimental product, but use the three-day cone as its sole public product. Prepared residents and competent officials need only a few days to get ready.

 

On the NHC site, the first product that viewers should see is not the three-day cone, but the various wind probabilities charts (34-, 50-, and 64-kt), which should only extend out to day three. Maybe the probabilities legend should also be modified so that only the ≥ 50% (high probability) areas are highlighted. Viewers would then have a higher degree of confidence in the forecast and have a better idea as to what impacts could be expected. More specific, area-relevant rainfall, wind, tide, and other impacts could then be given out with greater certainty. (In addition to the main probabilities charts, I might also consider adding a separate but analogous product for major hurricane winds in severe storms.)

 

Finally, I think that Erika and other storms have shown that the global models, while not perfect, have improved sufficiently as to be preferred over the statistical and other dynamical guidance in many cases. The ECMWF ensembles and ensemble mean have proven, time after time, to be the most reliable track and intensity guidance, overall, within 72 hours. To use this season as an example, they did a better job with Danny, Erika, and Grace than any of the other global models (including even the ECMWF deterministic run!) and had fewer phantom storms for cyclone genesis. Had the NHC given greater weight to these global models with Erika, its track and intensity forecasts would have likely been much more accurate, if not perfect.

[eurojosh]

I really feel that the NHC is too nonchalant about how its forecasts are communicated. In the NHC’s view, consumers, media, and government are responsible for their own behavior. While technically true, taking such a hands-off approach and making incremental, relatively modest changes to the forecast products seems an underwhelming response to a significant problem. The NHC should cater to consumers, not vice versa. Additionally, the media and governments should be held accountable for their own incompetence and/or misinformation.

 

If I were the NHC, I would set up a group of specialists with broad interdisciplinary experience, including in behavioral psychology, communication, and maybe even neurology. This group, located within the NHC but separate from forecasting duties, would aggressively use social media and other levers of communication and direct how the media and government communicate official forecasts to the public. The group would call out, correct, and advise media and government on how to present official forecast products.

 

I would also make significant changes to the products themselves. Personally, I have long inveighed against having the five-day cone as a publicly visible product. Although five-day errors, both with the track and intensity, have diminished in recent years, uncertainty is quite high even two or three days out, especially with weaker systems like Erika. I think that the NHC should continue to use the five-day cone as an experimental product, but use the three-day cone as its sole public product. Prepared residents and competent officials need only a few days to get ready.

 

On the NHC site, the first product that viewers should see is not the three-day cone, but the various wind probabilities charts (34-, 50-, and 64-kt), which should only extend out to day three. Maybe the probabilities legend should also be modified so that only the ≥ 50% (high probability) areas are highlighted. Viewers would then have a higher degree of confidence in the forecast and have a better idea as to what impacts could be expected. More specific, area-relevant rainfall, wind, tide, and other impacts could then be given out with greater certainty. (In addition to the main probabilities charts, I might also consider adding a separate but analogous product for major hurricane winds in severe storms.)

 

Finally, I think that Erika and other storms have shown that the global models, while not perfect, have improved sufficiently as to be preferred over the statistical and other dynamical guidance in many cases. The ECMWF ensembles and ensemble mean have proven, time after time, to be the most reliable track and intensity guidance, overall, within 72 hours. To use this season as an example, they did a better job with Danny, Erika, and Grace than any of the other global models (including even the ECMWF deterministic run!) and had fewer phantom storms for cyclone genesis. Had the NHC given greater weight to these global models with Erika, its track and intensity forecasts would have likely been much more accurate, if not perfect.

 

This is all very logical, but can you imagine the headlines and Congressional inquiries after a major impact hurricane for which NHC had a 5-day cone, but only released the 3-day version?

[IsentropicLift]

We have TD 9 out in the Central Atlantic. The poor thing is already being badly sheared and isn't expected to last more than three days, but could waste another name.

 

The lameness in the Atlantic continues.

[AvantHiatus]

We have TD 9 out in the Central Atlantic. The poor thing is already being badly sheared and isn't expected to last more than three days, but could waste another name.

 

The lameness in the Atlantic continues.

Did you see the nutty setup on the long-range GFS? Looks like it involves TD9 or its remnants.

[friedmators]

Did you see the nutty setup on the long-range GFS? Looks like it involves TD9 or its remnants.

I feel like an idiot but where in the heck do I find anything past 240 hours for the GFS on Weatherbell? 

[IsentropicLift]

TD #10 has formed in the E Atlantic and the forecast is not nearly as grim as the last few cyclones. Conditions are expected to be favorable for the next few days and the cyclone is forecasted to become a TD on Saturday. Furthermore, the official NHC forecast brings the cyclone up to 50kts in 96hrs. 

 

The cyclone should remain on a WNW heading the next several days in tandem with strong ridging overhead. 

 

The 00z Euro maintains an organized system through the end of the forecast period with a general track North of the Islands.

 

[wxmx]

TD 10 should become a TS, but the probabilities of affecting land are pretty low.

 

The invest currently east of Florida has some probabilities of being left behind with a ridge developing over the NE US. This one has some chances of slowly moving towards the Carolinas, though upper level conditions are forecasted to be detrimental for any significant development.

 

Models have been hinting at a disturbance that may develop in the NE Caribbean late in the period (days 8+). It's too far out in the future to take any model forecast seriously, other than pointing out the potential.

[Jonathan]

Not adding much to the conversation as I'm a total amateur when it comes to the tropics, but how on earth can the GFS swing this far between one run?

 

The 00z/06z/12z/18z were very similar overall for the east coast with high pressure dominating and zero action off the coast, but all of a sudden tonight's 00z run has a tropical cyclone on the OBX.

 

I know it's still a long ways out, but the drastic changes are just crazy.

 

00z

 

18z

 

Of course, the only reason why I have any interest whatsoever in the tropics is because I'll be in the OBX 9/27-10/3 and I'm just hoping there won't be a system affecting the coast while I'm there. But man, staying up til 1:30am only to be let down with a TS ruining my vacation that's still 8 days out is stressing me out.

 

Anywho, I'll get out of the hurricane season thread and wait on winter now! Feel free to chime in if anyone has any thoughts as to why these runs are so wildly inconsistent.

[wxmx]

It's hour 300, that's why. Variability at such long time periods is expected.

[Ground Scouring]

Even with the MJO inducing upper-level divergence over the western Caribbean in a week, the strong vertical shear lurking just to the north would kill anything tracking out of the Caribbean. Plus, there's land interaction to contend with. I'm leaning toward no development.

[yoda]

Got to like the 5 day track for Ida

[Amped]

Got to like the 5 day track for Ida

Euro makes it the second major hurricane, 942mb at hr 192.  99% chance of it being a fish storm given the location.

[Jonathan]

Does anyone have any thoughts in regards to the D7-10 or so range southeast tropical/sub-tropical threat?

The GFS has been so inconsistent on how it handles the big canadian HP system and how it interacts with the Great Lakes low pressure system and the tropical/sub-tropical disturbance(s) rotating clockwise around the Outer Banks of NC. I've never seen anything like that. It just rotates for 3-5 days before finally coming inland and soaking E VA/NC/SC/etc.

Also, it looks like it tries to "transfer" the energy from the tropical system in the GOM across Florida, then move it up the east coast. Does that make any sort of sense given the setup? The EURO keeps that system in the GOM and keeps that HP system around longer next week, thus squashing that tropical low into the meat grinder.

Which model(s) have been performing the best overall and especially in regards to overall pattern recognition and the tropics during hurricane season so far?

Thanks in advance for any info, guys! I'm trying to plan my vacation in the Outer Banks without getting flooded away!

[Amped]

Just for giggles, 18z GFS ensemble member O000 gets an award for funniest solution of the year with the Gulf of Mexico system.

 

All models have been hinting at some slopgyre in the gulf day 9-10. In the outside chance it stays over water long enough to encounter favorable conditions it might turn into something significant.