downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Does anyone have the SPC outlook for tomorrow? Sent from my iPhone http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Durham, Granville, and Person Counties under a severe thunderstorm warning now. Getting closer. Line is weakening rapidly. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Winding down, SPC says. Mesoscale Discussion 1403 [an error occurred while processing this directive] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...415...418... VALID 140234Z - 140400Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...415...418...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A MARGINAL STRONG-WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROGRESSING E/SE. WITH A FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE LINE WITH EWD EXTENT...NO FURTHER WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION...AS OF 0215Z...AN MCS WAS ADVANCING E/SEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. WHILE A SMALL WINDOW OF RELATIVELY HIGHER THETA-E LINGERS ACROSS S-CNTRL VA/CNTRL NC/N-CNTRL SC...AND IS YIELDING SOME MAINTENANCE OF THE LINE...MODEST BL DECOUPLING/INCREASING CINH WILL LIKELY FAVOR QUICKER WEAKENING OF THE LINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...WHILE A MARGINAL STRONG WIND POTENTIAL PERSISTS THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS AND CELL MERGERS/...THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH 04-05Z. ..PICCA.. 07/14/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Line is weakening rapidly. Sorry man. Tomorrow is our day, if we can get some sun all hell will break loose in NC I think, cape over 4K and shear usually produce..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 RAH Disco....... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHOPPED AWAY FROM THE NW AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THE LINE HAD REACHED HENDERSON... RDU... AND SOUTHERN PINES... AND HAS GREATLY WEAKENED. ONLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 200 AM)...CONVECTIVE UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER... CINH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING THAT HAS OCCURRED SHOULD KEEP IT QUIET OVER CENTRAL NC. LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH POP REDUCING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AFTER THE LINE PASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Tomorrow is our day, if we can get some sun all hell will break loose in NC I think, cape over 4K and shear usually produce..... Yeah, tomorrow is looking pretty good for sure. As you say, we'll want to see the sun come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Tomorrow is our day, if we can get some sun all hell will break loose in NC I think, cape over 4K and shear usually produce..... Heck yeah too bad i will be in the server room all day !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 HRRR is being pretty aggressive with that 2nd MCS that's supposed to roll through in the early morning hours. Kind of have my doubts about it reaching here since we got worked over pretty good and there isn't much instability. Just hope whatever rolls through doesn't leave too many clouds lingering so we can max out our potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Second line inbound. Looking almost as potent as last nights event. Flight already delayed this AM. Gonna be a long day in the airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 The current ongoing MCS entering NC could kill the chances of widespread severe in central and eastern NC, debris clouds and such from it could really temper instability. Got to just wait and see how much and how long any debris clouds etc from it affect our warming/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Haven't heard the "Carolina Split" in an AFD for a while For tonight: IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MINIMUM OF MEAN RH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH DRY AIR SPREADING EAST AND OVERTAKING THE AREA. THE DRYING ALOFT COULD GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A CLASSIC "CAROLINA SPLIT" OVER THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL KINEMATICS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE ALOFT...SPCS ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IS WELL WARRANTED. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR AND STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Haven't heard the "Carolina Split" in an AFD for a while For tonight: IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MINIMUM OF MEAN RH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH DRY AIR SPREADING EAST AND OVERTAKING THE AREA. THE DRYING ALOFT COULD GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A CLASSIC "CAROLINA SPLIT" OVER THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL KINEMATICS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE ALOFT...SPCS ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IS WELL WARRANTED. ALL RESIDENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR AND STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. Latest HRRR run shows this split well....there is a cluster that forms over the Triangle and heads due east later tonight but the majority of the day is dry for everyone and west of the triangle gets blanked after the morning MCS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 The SPC still bullish, with the height falls this afternoon plus lots of sun and instability I suspect they are right about a locally forming line of storms forming along the foothills and heading east....timing seems to be a issue though with it perhaps happening to late to take advantage of peak heating....would need it to form and head east no later than say 1-2 and with the current MCS out west it might be tough to get that lee side trough established in time. From the latest SPC update ...SRN PA/MD/VA/CAROLINAS/GA... TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH NWD EXTENT FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS INTO MD/VA/SRN PA REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MORNING MCS IN ERN TN/SRN APPALACHIANS SUGGEST THESE STORMS MAY PROCEED SEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS /STRONG-SEVERE/ WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE FULL EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT IN THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Instability is 100 J/KG and LIs are running around +2. Off to a great start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Second line inbound. Looking almost as potent as last nights event. Flight already delayed this AM. Gonna be a long day in the airports. Line looks to be falling apart. Will wait and see if it can strengthen once again with day time heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 From my view of downtown Charlotte....pretty wild. I actually tried to run down three flights of stairs to get outside for a better pic. Needless to say it was moving faster than I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 It just jumped me. And breaking up quick around me. Got 0.01" in the bucket. Took a miracle to miss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 all this crap moving through now is going to really screw our chances of a good outbreak for the WNC later today... shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Brick, I think you'd better get prepared for a big bustola today. Cape is up to a staggering 250 j/kg over the area with LI's around +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sun here down at the coast, I hope that cloud deck stays west of 95, does look like the complex is rapidly decaying so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Completely cloudy! Bustola, in full effect! Another day, another drought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 Wow what a look on that cell headed towards Franklin, NC. That is the best looking cell I have seen in the mountains in a while. Wouldn't be surprised if it produced a little spin up. Strong winds nontheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Wow what a look on that cell headed towards Franklin, NC. That is the best looking cell I have seen in the mountains in a while. Wouldn't be surprised if it produced a little spin up. Strong winds nontheless. Ward we had some wicked lightning this morning with some wind. Not much since then but a few storms here and there. Steady moderate rain all day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 CAPE nearly up to 500 j/kg and LI's almost at 0! Temp at a balmy 77 at RDU at 11:00 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 Ward we had some wicked lightning this morning with some wind. Not much since then but a few storms here and there. Steady moderate rain all day though. I am waiting on this cell up on sunset mountain in Highlands.. Looks pretty wicked but also appears to be dying somewhat. Glad you got some much needes rain though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I am waiting on this cell up on sunset mountain in Highlands.. Looks pretty wicked but also appears to be dying somewhat. Glad you got some much needes rain though!Yeah its been putting it down all morning with a comfortable temp of 59 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Yeah its been putting it down all morning with a comfortable temp of 59 degrees. Congrats on the rain sir. Should make for a nice mountain weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Had a pretty decent storm last night. Some good thunder and lightning at least. Would not be surprised if today is a bust since it has been talked up a lot the past couple of days. That's the way it had been around here the last couple of years when the threat is hyped a head of time. Probably end up not having any storms at all. Ridiculous how many times the last two years this has happened when there has been a lot of talk of severe weather. And when we do get severe weather there isn't even a watch for places that have tornado warnings. Not sure what it going on, but the severe storm forecasting has been really off. And it is really cloudy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 LOL --- "Stay tuned". WITH THAT NOTED...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THAT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO CENTRAL NC. SOME RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO A BIT BUT RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS PAST HOUR IN EASTERN IN AND WESTERN OH...THE ANTICIPATED BREEDING GROUND FOR TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 LOL --- "Stay tuned". WITH THAT NOTED...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THAT SURVIVES A TRIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO CENTRAL NC. SOME RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO A BIT BUT RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS PAST HOUR IN EASTERN IN AND WESTERN OH...THE ANTICIPATED BREEDING GROUND FOR TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. STAY TUNED.Sounds like a snow forecast ! Lot of ifs and butts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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