PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Were you a Gopher? Cougar here.... 2002 graduate No I went to a private school, unfortunately. Graduated in 2000. If I had been in public school I would've been in North County though, not Glen Burnie High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 No I went to a private school, unfortunately. Graduated in 2000. If I had been in public school I would've been in North County though, not Glen Burnie High. where did you go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Okay, RR I will control myself for your sake . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 For me growing up in Glen Burnie I only remember one big storm in Feb. - "The storm of '95" was all over the news. Don't ever remember it being cold or anything. That year was sandwiched between the two epic winters of my childhood- '94 and '96. Looking at the BWI records there was 7.2" on 2/4/95 (a daily record)- that was basically the only snow the entire winter other than a few cartoppers. Edit: I should probably add that I'd be very happy with a '95 type winter- give me one good 5+" event and I consider it a win in this region. It was 5 degrees at BWI a couple days after the big snow. Feb averaged 2.7 below the 1981-2010 norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It was 5 degrees at BWI a couple days after the big snow. Feb averaged 2.7 below the 1981-2010 norm. You got me curious so I pulled the month in more detail. We had some good negative departures and snowcover (8 days) in the first half of the month- nothing record-breaking but fairly good. Guess it got overshadowed in my mind by the much more extreme cold in the years before and after. Dec. was +5.9 (12th hottest) and Jan. was +6.1 though.... guess winter didn't start until Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Getting the feeling that this is going to be a one month winter (February). I think most of, if not all of January is above normal warmth and below average snow. February is probably the "coldest" and "snowiest" month, although nothing like the cold we have been used to seeing. Based on history, I think March goes right back to sucking and we go into spring quickly, given strong and very strong Nino climo for that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Getting the feeling that this is going to be a one month winter (February). I think most of, if not all of January is above normal warmth and below average snow. February is probably the "coldest" and "snowiest" month, although nothing like the cold we have been used to seeing. Based on history, I think March goes right back to sucking and we go into spring quickly, given strong and very strong Nino climo for that month. Maybe you could back up this post with something? Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 +5.9 in December isn't "hot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Maybe you could back up this post with something? Anything?Zero evidence of a weakening stratospheric vortex and any warming, horrible long wave pattern to begin January being projected, climo of past super Ninos. It is going to take a long time to get the pattern "wintry" in the east, something this bad doesn't just change over night, it's gonna take awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Maybe you could back up this post with something? Anything?Read some tweets today from people that know a lot more about the stratosphere than me, that made me even more confident of my call. They are seeing signs that attacks on the vortex and possible warmings will happen during January. Given the incredible strength of the vortex the process of weakening it and elongating it will take some time. They said it will be a long process, which makes sense. They also said that a total breakdown of the vortex is very unlikely given its strength and that an elongation is much more likely. If the process starts once into January, I would not expect a meaningful change to wintry until the end of January at the very earliest and much more likely the changes come in February. As far as March, given what I've seen looking at past strong Ninos it's a lost cause until proven otherwise IMO. Not to say I won't change that idea once into February and I see where the pattern is going, but I don't have confidence at all in that month producing as far as cold and snowy weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 SSW/PV dislodging is the new chase it all winter weenie habit. Most don't even know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 SSW/PV dislodging is the new chase it all winter weenie habit. Most don't even know what they are talking about. I get a sense I know you are referring to (cough cough Twitter cough cough @_NEweather). That being said, Steve DiMartino seems to be in the same boat and he's pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 SSW/PV dislodging is the new chase it all winter weenie habit. Most don't even know what they are talking about. As long as it may get me my 4"+ storm in 1-12 weeks, I'll chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Jamstec updated. Hard to believe how cold temps are, but I have no problem believing it's not that wet. Plus, looks like a +NAO. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I get a sense I know you are referring to (cough cough Twitter cough cough @_NEweather). That being said, Steve DiMartino seems to be in the same boat and he's pretty goodNo words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 No words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Getting the feeling that this is going to be a one month winter (February). I think most of, if not all of January is above normal warmth and below average snow. February is probably the "coldest" and "snowiest" month, although nothing like the cold we have been used to seeing. Based on history, I think March goes right back to sucking and we go into spring quickly, given strong and very strong Nino climo for that month. Probably for your location and south March will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Probably for your location and south March will suck. Yours too is my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 SSW/PV dislodging is the new chase it all winter weenie habit. Most don't even know what they are talking about. I've always said when the threads fill up with ssw chatter it means we are in big trouble. Last year was an exception because we did well in the face of the typical futile chase. I thought last night's ens run looked pretty crappy. Not that I was expecting an abrupt way out of this mess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I've always said when the threads fill up with ssw chatter it means we are in big trouble. Last year was an exception because we did well in the face of the typical futile chase. I thought last night's ens run looked pretty crappy. Not that I was expecting an abrupt way out of this mess though. It did look crappy and though the vortex looked pretty robust so I'm not sure what all the chatter is about. I'll be doing my 2 week outlook today that no one will read because I won't be mentioning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 d16-30 EPS analogs from last night.. All years then just Nino. If this is close we might be toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 d16-30 EPS analogs from last night.. All years then just Nino. If this is close we might be toast. What is a day 16-30? Is that a forecast and the analogs to match? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What is a day 16-30? Is that a forecast and the analogs to match? It's just a rollover of the pattern from d 11-15 I believe. Not sure it really means anything but still interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It's just a rollover of the pattern from d 11-15 I believe. Not sure it really means anything but still interesting to see. Interesting to see 77 on that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Something I made since bored. This is based off this list: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/678052113390415873 larger: http://imgur.com/JNDAlyx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Nice chart, Ian. Who would have thought that a moderate El Nino was the sweet spot. I would have leaned toward a weak El Nino or maybe neutral being the sweet spot, or even weak La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 82-83 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 3.4 back up to +2.9.. no nino death yet https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/679342974602338305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 3.4 back up to +2.9.. no nino death yet https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/679342974602338305 I was kinda surprised at how strong it looked when I checked noaa site yesterday. PDO has improved since the beginning of Dec. It has relaxed quite a bit this fall but seems to be going back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 What is it called when the entire planet's oceans north of 40S are above normal? El grande nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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