Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[jhamps10]

that cell was looking quite ugly on both the dyess and FTW radars for a while there. kinds surprised nothing did drop out of it except some hail and wind gusts.

Agreed, had the look of something for sure

[Quixotic1]

The storms look to be fairly discrete but they have a very positive tilt to them. Kinda unusual looking.

[cstrunk]

Looks like a 3rd straight day of disappointment for North/East TX. I suppose it's still possible for something significant since it's so early, but I'm not counting on it.  What a bummer.

 

One thing to watch will be what happens when the main cell reaches the warm front, will it latch on and strengthen?

[Wmsptwx]

I agree, only thing left is to see how it interacts with the front, then we can call this a day.

[jm1220]

Finally some sunny breaks in Austin. Too little too late? Man, it feels like a sauna outside.

[Roy]

Lots of swirling clouds with the storm just exiting Keller. Pretty cool-looking but luckily nothing serious.

[radarman]

Lots of swirling clouds with the storm just exiting Keller. Pretty cool-looking but luckily nothing serious.

 

this

 

lots of shear evident on that cell, but not well organized, nor strong.  Several small embedded updrafts, characteristic of exactly what it produced: non-severe hail.

[yoda]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0440.html

[jhamps10]

wehhhhhh maybe I spoke too soon about that dodging a bullet.... 80MPH winds possible coming in to SW ft worth

[jhamps10]

That's nearly 100MPH winds detected by radar... and the blue dot is my apartment complex.. Yeah I probably won't be on much longer lol

[Roy]

The roll cloud on CBS 11 is bad-looking. Reminds me of growing up and a roll cloud brought 80-90 mph winds. Was like our neighborhood was hit by a weak tornado.

[radarman]

Cleburne just took an absolute pounding.  Looked like tropical storm images.  Will post in a second.

[Minnesota Meso]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

[bubba hotep]

[jhamps10]

The roll cloud on CBS 11 is bad-looking. Reminds me of growing up and a roll cloud brought 80-90 mph winds. Was like our neighborhood was hit by a weak tornado.

 

we had at least 80-85MPH winds here I'd say... 

[Roy]

Wow. That's bad. 

[jhamps10]

Wow. That's bad. 

 

yeah I haven't ventured out to look to see for damage, I saw a picture on twitter that Oakmont was flooded just north of my apartment so I'm staying in

[jm1220]

Wow-nasty post-rush hour for DFW to say the least. 

 

Down here it's looking like our chance will come tonight with the storms and S/W running NE out of Mexico. Several warnings now over the Rio Grande Valley. It could just as easily though do what this setup usually does which is run south of here and consolidate into a MCS in time for Victoria/Houston. 

 

Maybe the tail end of the line of storms in N/C TX can clip us again. 

[bubba hotep]

Well, it was mostly just a lot of heavy rain up this way, lakes continue to cash in. Now it's on to Sunday

 

[Roy]

Any good sites for lake levels around here? Knew where to look for Midland, but not so sure here...

[cheese007]

Absolutely massive rainbow east of Richardson

[Quixotic1]

Well that one delivered. I'll take a bow echo over a tornado any day.

[bubba hotep]

Absolutely massive rainbow east of Richardson

Amazing sunset to the west and rainbow to the east, kids were thrilled.

[bubba hotep]

Any good sites for lake levels around here? Knew where to look for Midland, but not so sure here...

 

I use this site here.

[aggiegeog]

My backyard, it is pretty sheltered, got a 5 mph gust from this. I bet Gilmer has gotten bad though.

[jm1220]

Too bad those storms south of San Antonio are going for Rich Get Richer country in SE TX-those are nasty. One has a tornado warning and tennis ball size hail south of San Antonio now. 

[bubba hotep]

It looks like Texas could be under the gun again tomorrow and Monday.  The Euro depicts a scenario that would also bring another round of beneficial rainfall to much of Texas. 

 

 

 

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

[NTXYankee]

It looks like Texas could be under the gun again tomorrow and Monday.  The Euro depicts a scenario that would also bring another round of beneficial rainfall to much of Texas. 

 

 

 

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED

BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE

GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE

NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACECYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT

ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVELFLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE

WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE

FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR

SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY

RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF

MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40

METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL

OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED

TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON

HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLEDYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE

/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50

KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL

APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVELJET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON

MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO

THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR

NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL

REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY

OVERSPREADING THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING.

Eh, at least we'll see rain I suppose.

[bubba hotep]

Eh, at least we'll see rain I suppose.

 

I'll take it! This does look like a decent rain maker.  As with everything this spring, timing of the through ejection and Sunday night/Monday morning convection will determine what Monday afternoon looks like.

 

[Chinook]

A storm that looks like it nearly has rotation, has been dropping large hail offshore from Grand Chenier, Louisiana. I saw a "marine hail report" in GRLevel3. Never seen a marine hail report before.