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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Models start developing convection over the western Hill Country soon and shift it east into Austin/San Antonio by midnight or so. Hopefully this works out, seems like the divergence aloft just hasn't been in place here yet like it was for N/C TX. I would think a watch would be issued given how far south the SPC has enhanced risk. 

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

LCLs are still high across DFW but are coming down and EHI is going up, DFW might not be out of the woods yet

 

I think the storm mode will keep DFW mostly out of the woods, but it's possible that something could spin up if any storms can stay out ahead of the line that is forming. The Glen Rose storm is either reorganizing or falling apart, and it's on a track to stay south anyways.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I think the storm mode will keep DFW mostly out of the woods, but it's possible that something could spin up if any storms can stay out ahead of the line that is forming. The Glen Rose storm is either reorganizing or falling apart, and it's on a track to stay south anyways.

 

Yea, tornado risk is probably decreasing based on storm mode but straight line wind threat looks to be going up. 

 

CDkKielWAAEn9v6.png

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 270229Z - 270400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO

INCREASE WITH AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE

DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 03-05Z. A DISCRETE SUPERCELL

MAY ALSO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY

SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED

DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO...PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF

THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE

FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSE MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY

SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE

APPEARS TO BE STRONG WITHIN A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE ONGOING

CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS MAY PROVIDE

SUPPORT FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE FOCUS FOR

EASTWARD ACCELERATION AS THIS OCCURS.

GIVEN THE SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE DEW POINT

SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 27/00Z FTW RAOB...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING

AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED

FURTHER BY THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT....ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR

SURFACE EASTERLIES VEERING TO STRONG WESTERLIES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.

IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL...NOW EAST OF

STEPHENVILLE...WILL PERSIST. BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO

GENERALLY PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BULK OF THE

METROPLEX...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Cell SW of Reno might be splitting? If it does and can get some separation from the southern portion then it could cause some issues.  

 

I noticed that, seems like all of the storms coming in from the SW seem to be shifting SE to train over Hood and Johnson counties, possibly leaving us in SW Ft Worth high and dry here

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I am getting very light rain now, but unbelievably, that nice strong storm is getting killed now. Metro will get squat unless an overnight complex comes through like they keep talking about, but I frankly highly doubt that will happen.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Guess we could hope for some sort of miracle tomorrow and end up actually getting something, but I'm not holding my breath

I wouldn't hold your breath. Nuclear cap will be coming soon, honestly I wish is would setup shop south of I-20 now to see if we can possibly get something in May but I'm exhausted from these misses, if it's too good to be true then it probably is. Though Oklahoma has been dealt the same crap we have this year, we've had a couple decent storms at least.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't hold your breath. Nuclear cap will be coming soon, honestly I wish is would setup shop south of I-20 now to see if we can possibly get something in May but I'm exhausted from these misses, if it's too good to be true then it probably is. Though Oklahoma has been dealt the same crap we have this year, we've had a couple decent storms at least.

 

at this rate I just want the rain! I mean seriously it's pouring in NW Ft Worth, we all know how it is south of Tarrant County... Southern Tarrant county is getting all the noise and NONE of the rain... that's ticking me off cuz if it'll keep me up all night from the thunder at least give rain please

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cheese007

cheese007

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't throw in the towel on the cell to the NW of Ft. Worth just yet, lightning has picked up with it. Maybe it just needs to get some separation from the southern super cell train. 

 

Saw a little while ago what looks like a bolt of lightening travel across the sky and land to the east of Richardson

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't hold your breath. Nuclear cap will be coming soon, honestly I wish is would setup shop south of I-20 now to see if we can possibly get something in May but I'm exhausted from these misses, if it's too good to be true then it probably is. Though Oklahoma has been dealt the same crap we have this year, we've had a couple decent storms at least.

 

Yeah I mean we had 70-80 MPH winds, even greater, twice this week really.  Plus a boatload of rain... >10" more than this time last year.  It's been a good stretch unless you actually want an EF3 ripping through your living room.

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