Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Roy]

Clouds building back in based on satellite now with less cloudless areas to the west. But, may be enough. 

[cheese007]

Clouds building back in based on satellite now with less cloudless areas to the west.

Fine by me. Don't exactly want any Tors in the DFW metro

[jhamps10]

Fine by me. Don't exactly want any Tors in the DFW metro

Agreed there...still can't help but think something is going to happen today, I really do, I thbink between 4 and 7 everyone needs to be on high guard across the metroplex, and hope im wrong on my feeling here

[bubba hotep]

Was starting to think SPC would leave DFW out but I guess not.

[radarman]

WWUS40 KWNS 241909
WWP0

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WT 0100
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  60%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU0.

$$
 

[Roy]

Yeah, don't want tornadoes here. It's one thing when it's in open country. It's another when it's wall-to-wall concrete where it will destroy a lot of people's homes.

[jhamps10]

Yeah, don't want tornadoes here. It's one thing when it's in open country. It's another when it's wall-to-wall concrete where it will destroy a lot of people's homes.

Agreed there.. So is the actual dry line still all the way out by San Angelo??? If so then this thing really slowed down

[bubba hotep]

Don't really like the fact that the boundary has hung around all day. Was thinking the clouds associated with it might keep things stable (may still do that) but it could also cause us some real issues if any discrete storms interact with it later.

[jhamps10]

Don't really like the fact that the boundary has hung around all day. Was thinking the clouds associated with it might keep things stable (may still do that) but it could also cause us some real issues if any discrete storms interact with it later.

Agreed, the fact that the boundary set up over us will probably do more harm than good I think

[jm1220]

Our window is closing down here in Austin I think. CAPE, shear values and LI look great but the clouds just don't want to break. I'll say this, it's disgustingly humid today, currently 80/73 dewpoint. If the sun does come out, we'll be set to detonate.

[cheese007]

Don't really like:Phe fact that the boundary has hung around all day. Was thinking the clouds associated with it might keep things stable (may still do that) but it could also cause us some real issues if any discrete storms interact with it later.

So am I gonna be storm chasing from a dorm room later tonight?

[bubba hotep]

Cell trying to go down by Glen Rose could be the first problem for DFW

[jojo762]

The Storm southwest of Abilene, TX has my attention... Developing a good radar presentation, and rotation. On it current track to the northeast it could also impact the DFW metro potentially if it sticks together that long... Which given the environment its in seems plausible.

[jm1220]

Let's see how far south this line can build- the wind and hail event on Saturday here was at the tail end of one of these lines.

[cstrunk]

Seems like a lot of crapvection.  Hope the trend doesn't continue.  I don't like that the clouds filled back in after it seems like we'd have more sunshine earlier.

[NTXYankee]

Eh, not really feeling this one now either, had more hope this morning. We have been socked in with clouds all day, not even above 70, heating time is almost gone to do anything.

[Wmsptwx]

Will clouds pretty much put a damper on much organized severe today? Dews look good but it's only been muted sun for a lot of areas in the ENH region.

[Wmsptwx]

More showers hanging around, about to go over DFW area.

[jm1220]

There might be a smaller sliver near Waco where there has been enough clearing with heating and favorable CAPE, LI and shear for a higher threat, but the favorable indices seem to want to stop just south of the Metroplex.

[Wmsptwx]

I agree, was checking out obs, Waco area and nearby seem to have recovered somewhat. Just a waiting game I guess to see what goes in the next few hours.

[jhamps10]

The Storm southwest of Abilene, TX has my attention... Developing a good radar presentation, and rotation. On it current track to the northeast it could also impact the DFW metro potentially if it sticks together that long... Which given the environment its in seems plausible.

I don't see any reason why it won't hold together... It's on a bee line for the metro right now

[bubba hotep]

Stubborn boundary looks like it is still hung up along I-20, still think it starts lifting N at some point

[jhamps10]

Might wanna keep an eye on what's developing over Parker county....

[cstrunk]

New development west of Fort Worth needs to be watched. If the cell farther southwest can stay isolated it will have major potential.

[bubba hotep]

New development west of Fort Worth needs to be watched. If the cell farther southwest can stay isolated it will have major potential.

Yep, that 1st that tried near Glen Rose died but that cell looks a lot better

[Quixotic1]

Storm NE of Brownwood warned.

[bubba hotep]

Hmm... everything on radar starting to get that look

[Roy]

Pouring in Keller now, but grateful no baseball hail or something crazy here.

[jhamps10]

Looks like the cell near stephenville has really strung apart now... Another bullet missed for dfw I think looking at it right now imo

[Jim Marusak]

Looks like the cell near stephenville has really strung apart now... Another bullet missed for dfw I think looking at it right now imo

that cell was looking quite ugly on both the dyess and FTW radars for a while there. kinds surprised nothing did drop out of it except some hail and wind gusts.