Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[cstrunk]

LCL's are marginal at this point in the target area from 1250-2000m, in a corridor near the surface low east towards an area south of DFW.  Temperature/dewpoint spreads don't seem that bad (<20) in most places.  

 

Storms are already firing along the dryline.  Watch for them to intensify through the afternoon.

 

I'm in Tyler and I'm really having a personal battle with myself as to whether I should hop in my truck and book it west or just be content with armchair chasing this evening....

[bubba hotep]

Yeah there is some dry air up there and Andy mentioned on the other thread on here that this should help keep moisture from mixing out but also think will help moisten upper levels too. Clearing noted behind this and low still needs to as they said rapidly develop back west. Already humid out and here just east of airport sun goes in and out.

 

Yea, this is a case that we would want to see those cells with the first impulse mature a bit more to beat down the potential for later.

[andyhb]

LCL's are marginal at this point in the target area from 1250-2000m, in a corridor near the surface low east towards an area south of DFW.  Temperature/dewpoint spreads don't seem that bad (<20) in most places.  

 

Storms are already firing along the dryline.  Watch for them to intensify through the afternoon.

 

I'm in Tyler and I'm really having a personal battle with myself as to whether I should hop in my truck and book it west or just be content with armchair chasing this evening....

 

Note that the RAP is currently mixing out moisture too much and creating unrealistic T/Td spreads and LCL heights. This will impact mesoanalysis as well.

[bubba hotep]

LCL's are marginal at this point in the target area from 1250-2000m, in a corridor near the surface low east towards an area south of DFW.  Temperature/dewpoint spreads don't seem that bad (<20) in most places.  

 

Storms are already firing along the dryline.  Watch for them to intensify through the afternoon.

 

I'm in Tyler and I'm really having a personal battle with myself as to whether I should hop in my truck and book it west or just be content with armchair chasing this evening....

 

I would think we won't see LCLs start to really drop until later on this afternoon and into the evening.

[NTXYankee]

Yea, this is a case that we would want to see those cells with the first impulse mature a bit more to beat down the potential for later.

I am certainly impressed by the way Texas weather can change in an instant. Who would have thought these discussions would have come up today...

[cstrunk]

Note that the RAP is currently mixing out moisture too much and creating unrealistic T/Td spreads and LCL heights. This will impact mesoanalysis as well.

 

Thanks for the info!  I wasn't expecting to see them that high with the level of moisture we have.

[andyhb]

Tornado warning for the Anson area in Jones County, that was fast.

 

Note, can we move this discussion to the dedicated severe thread for this?

[bubba hotep]

Wild day coming up

 

[Jim Marusak]

looking at the dfw discussion and just doing an 18Z sfc analysis, it looks like it's already 998hPa for the sfc low in west Tx (dryline from Del Rio to Aspermont). if they're estimating that it goes to 992-993 by 00z, I wonder if the estimate on the sfc low might have to be deepened more to say 990 or 989, with strengthening of any sfc convergence and severe threat along with it.

[NTXYankee]

Tornado warning for the Anson area in Jones County, that was fast.

 

Note, can we move this discussion to the dedicated severe thread for this?

Second that and leave this for misc stuff like the cell trying to make some headway over my house

[bubba hotep]

Tornado warning for the Anson area in Jones County, that was fast.

 

Note, can we move this discussion to the dedicated severe thread for this?

 

I typically stay out of those threads b/c my post are almost exclusively focused on just the DFW area, but I guess today might be appropriate.

 

Anyway, back to full sun here in Collin County.  

[bubba hotep]

Cell has finally busted through here in the DFW area, but small stuff like this shouldn't be able to work the atmosphere over

 

[bubba hotep]

That little cell the fired up got choked off with the quickness

 

 

and now we have this across NE DFW area

 

[Roy]

Really bizarre long rolling thunder just in north Fort Worth/Keller. Nothing on radar. I swear it lasted 15 seconds. 

[jhamps10]

Really bizarre long rolling thunder just in north Fort Worth/Keller. Nothing on radar. I swear it lasted 15 seconds. 

 

I know I heard the same thing in SW Ft Worth while I was standing outside taking pictures of the mammatus clouds 

 

https://twitter.com/jhcards/status/592428986317348866/photo/1has the photos I took from my iPhone

[bubba hotep]

Really bizarre long rolling thunder just in north Fort Worth/Keller. Nothing on radar. I swear it lasted 15 seconds. 

 

From the warned cell near Comanche, have seen that in the past with thunder and lightning way out ahead of the cell associated with the mammatus clouds and canopy 

[bubba hotep]

LCLs are still high across the DFW area, probably limiting the threat from that Comanche cell as it moves east. However, we should see them start to lower over the next few hours. 

[Roy]

Yeah apparently anvil lightning. Learned something new.

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm... was thinking that we would've seen a MD or maybe even a watch for DFW by this point from SPC 

 

ETA: was about a min too fast with that post 

[radarman]

Hmmm... was thinking that we would've seen a MD or maybe even a watch for DFW by this point from SPC 

 

ETA: was about a min too fast with that post 

 

Nice timing

 

WWUS40 KWNS 262152

WWP1

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0121

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0450 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WT 0121

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  70%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  40%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  40%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  10%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  70%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  70%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 550

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27020

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU1.

$$

 

[bubba hotep]

Storm going up N of Brownwood could be trouble for DFW later, depending how far north it can get before making the right turn (if it makes the right turn)

[Roy]

It seems like the CAPE is diving per SPC mesoanalysis and CIN is increasing. Is this an issue?

[bubba hotep]

It seems like the CAPE is diving per SPC mesoanalysis and CIN is increasing. Is this an issue?

 

Kind of a trade off, LCLs should start lowering, forcing will increase and maybe shear as well.

[Wmsptwx]

Waiting to see if any storms get that look

[bubba hotep]

Storm going up N of Brownwood could be trouble for DFW later, depending how far north it can get before making the right turn (if it makes the right turn)

 

Made the right turn pretty soon after this post, still moving kind of NE and may approach southern parts of DFW. Conditions across DFW don't appear overly favorable for a tornado at this time but that could change as that cell approaches. 

[Wmsptwx]

Am I seeing something or is that cell looking really promising?

[jhamps10]

Made the right turn pretty soon after this post, still moving kind of NE and may approach southern parts of DFW. Conditions across DFW don't appear overly favorable for a tornado at this time but that could change as that cell approaches. 

 

IDK, I see it skirting Johnson county and the exburbs.. i don't see it making it into DFW proper, however the cell coming into NW Erath county might be a watcher.. don't see it turning into a tornadic cell but it is developing quickly

[bubba hotep]

IDK, I see it skirting Johnson county and the exburbs.. i don't see it making it into DFW proper, however the cell coming into NW Erath county might be a watcher.. don't see it turning into a tornadic cell but it is developing quickly

 

It has started to take on more of a due east component here in the past 15 min, it seems. The cell up north of Breckenridge looks interesting but probably has enough junk to the south of it right now to keep it from being long lived. 

[radarman]

IDK, I see it skirting Johnson county and the exburbs.. i don't see it making it into DFW proper, however the cell coming into NW Erath county might be a watcher.. don't see it turning into a tornadic cell but it is developing quickly

 

Looks like a nasty storm... this pic about 3 mins old from Cleburne:

 

[Quixotic1]

Nice shot.