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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Today could be interesting around DFW (posting this here and  not in the main thread since it is so IMBY focused) 

 

CEZp-qqUUAAN6SX.png

 

From the morning AFD issues by FWD:

 

IF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAINTAINS ITSELF THIS
AFTERNOON...IT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS BOUNDARY HOLDING TOGETHER AND NOT
WASHING OUT IS SOMEWHAT LOW...HOWEVER IF IT`S THERE...IT WILL
SERVE TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL VORTICITY GENERATION FOR
UPDRAFTS TO INGEST THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS BOUNDARY MAINTAINS
ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE NEAR IT...SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE
WILL TRACK CAREFULLY TODAY IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ASIDE FROM THE
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS PRESENT...BUT IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AWAY FROM
A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Today could be interesting around DFW (posting this here and  not in the main thread since it is so IMBY focused) 

 

CEZp-qqUUAAN6SX.png

 

From the morning AFD issues by FWD:

 

IF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAINTAINS ITSELF THIS

AFTERNOON...IT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT.

AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS BOUNDARY HOLDING TOGETHER AND NOT

WASHING OUT IS SOMEWHAT LOW...HOWEVER IF IT`S THERE...IT WILL

SERVE TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL VORTICITY GENERATION FOR

UPDRAFTS TO INGEST THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS BOUNDARY MAINTAINS

ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT FOR

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE NEAR IT...SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE

WILL TRACK CAREFULLY TODAY IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ASIDE FROM THE

POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...THE

TORNADO THREAT REMAINS PRESENT...BUT IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AWAY FROM

A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY.

Not a whole lot of confidence in anything interesting around here.  Outflows have not worked in our favor, maybe this one will have different results but not banking on it.  Shoot I'm not even really that excited about this weekend.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

It seems fairly far north to have any impact on DFW and the NWS said it may wash out before any real impact anyway. The weekend looks good, but models really aren't giving us much in terms of radar presentations. A safe bet would be OK getting it as usual.

 

This weekend could be rough, but again, probably mostly in OK and KS. It does look to be a high-impact event somewhere for sure.

 

Tomorrow's latest outlook from SPC pushed the enhanced well west of DFW.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

I'm focusing this to DFW but a lot of people were saying oh the storms may not get into DFW tonight.... Go take a look at what's forming just north of Abilene, and oh yeah that line as a whole is moving due east if not a bit ESE.... may not be severe when it gets in but something to track for sure

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Yeah looks like DFW will probably get something after all if it can sustain. Had some little brief showers come through around 4-5 in my little area of North Fort Worth, but nothing significant. Those are much more substantial. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

Great light show this evening and we are getting hammered with heavy rain again! Now to see what tomorrow brings...

The back end of the storm had some very intense lightning, I swear it was like my house got hit and you could hear the sizzle of the lightning at least 10-15 times when I thought the more intense piece moved on.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Stuff already firing early. Probably will need to remove enhanced risk over North Texas.

 

It will depend a lot on coverage and how fast those cells move through, a few transit showers aren't really going to alter the environment that much.  FWD didn't really say much about their thinking for today in the morning AFD but did put out this graphic:

 

CEe1CzJWgAAoIvm.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Hopefully, they can get the special launched today

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. 12Z FWD SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED BUT
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE AND WE EXPECT THE
CAP TO BREAK MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE SENDING UP AN 18Z
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE CAP STRENGTH.

OUR CURRENT FOCUS IS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS ONGOING LATE THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST BUT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS/OUTFLOWS WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT IS
CONCERNING IS THE BACKED WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WEST OF WICHITA FALLS. SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. FARTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...STORMS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALES REMAIN VERY HIGH SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROWS OF COUNTIES WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY AND
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WE HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Environment is actually kind of interesting across DFW based on the latest SPC Meso analysis 

 

14ni9gz.png

 

the 11:30 spc update threw down 10% tornado risk for the metroplex NE (don't tell that to scouring storms in the main thread, he's like ehh who cares HP stuff that's non-chasable.. ugh) 

 

I agree interesting setup for the metroplex, still think flooding is our biggest threat

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

018
FXUS64 KFWD 091702
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING STORMS HAVE STAYED MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT HAVE
BEEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND HAVE RESULTED IN FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE
LARGEST AREA OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL THIS MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS REALLY NOT STABILIZED MUCH AND THEREFORE IS
PRIMED FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY INTERESTED IN THE SURGING DRYLINE IN THE
WEST AND THE CLEARING OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THIS
AREA MAY BE THE FIRST STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OR THE
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

79

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