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E PA/NJ/DE/Oak Hill Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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Massively disappointing tornado watch list gets another check

 

I can do you one better. I was directly in the path of a warned cell that weakend sigifcantly just prior to arival in my backyard. A few rumbles of thunder and very little wind was the result. If it wasn't for the intense rainfall, I'd have called it a dud as well.

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Massively disappointing tornado watch list gets another check

Really didn't see the need for the TOR watch in the first place. There really wasn't anything that signaled significant or even moderate potential tornado event yesterday for the area. Always looked like wind would be the main threat in the event imo. I think spc needs to do a better job of issuing tornado watches around here because a lot of time they are issued on the chance of one or two tornados while the predominant threat is usually wind. I think a strongly worded SVR watch that brings up the potential for one or two tornados is the better call for the public. The public's opinion around here is that TOR watches are a complete joke because of how often they yield just little to no tornadoes. Some serious cry wolf is beginning to set in and I fear that if this region ever does see a significant tornado threat(though rare), the watches would largely be either ignored or not heeded.

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Really didn't see the need for the TOR watch in the first place. There really wasn't anything that signaled significant or even moderate potential tornado event yesterday for the area. Always looked like wind would be the main threat in the event imo. I think spc needs to do a better job of issuing tornado watches around here because a lot of time they are issued on the chance of one or two tornados while the predominant threat is usually wind. I think a strongly worded SVR watch that brings up the potential for one or two tornados is the better call for the public. The public's opinion around here is that TOR watches are a complete joke because of how often they yield just little to no tornadoes. Some serious cry wolf is beginning to set in and I fear that if this region ever does see a significant tornado threat(though rare), the watches would largely be either ignored or not heeded.

 

Exactly, I basically ignore tornado watches around here (Horsham) because they never pan out. The public in general ignore them....people take Severe TS warnings more seriously because they do happen quite often and they do pan out somewhere in the warning area.

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Warmest reading of the year here in NW Chesco with the current temp now up to 84.9

Down at my place in Sea Isle City NJ the seabreeze kicked in with a 11:24am high temp of 84.6 which dropped to 73.7 by 11:39am - now down to 71.7. Heading down there for most of the next week looking forward to cooling breezes!

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Warmest reading of the year here in NW Chesco with the current temp now up to 84.9

Down at my place in Sea Isle City NJ the seabreeze kicked in with a 11:24am high temp of 84.6 which dropped to 73.7 by 11:39am - now down to 71.7. Heading down there for most of the next week looking forward to cooling breezes!

 

 

I wanna be down the shore.  How nice!

post-10347-0-05717400-1434044998_thumb.p

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Just hit 90....DPs in the 69-70F range and you can feel it. A slight breeze is helping though...expect to see a high around 93F. 

 

Temps haven't really budged here...in the 90.XXX? range...really don't I'll hit 92 unless non-cloudy skies break out (haze is out) but the DPs are a disaster...71-73F-ish.

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Got mauled yesterday evening in highland lakes.

first true thunderstorm of the year.

On the fence if I consider it severe, but the cloud to ground  strikes were impressive.

Thunder was amazing in sound. Scared the heck out my dogs.

0.65 of rain is 15 minutes.

pea size hail. wind was decent.

All those iron and zinc deposits at over 1200' elevation probably help the CG action.

 Great for storm lovers, but not for the poor dogs.  :lmao:   

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This could be a fun week.

 

MONDAY...ONGOING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF I-78, PROBABLY QUITS FOR A WHILE DURING
FORENOON BEFORE REFIRING LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY MORE IN THE
SOUTH FROM KPHL LATITUDE SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE STORMS MONDAY
COULD BE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING IN NARROW SWATHS OF REAL ESTATE AND
ALSO YIELD POCKETS OF WET MICROBURST WIND DAMAGE. BEST CHC FOR FF
IN THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. PLEASE SEE
SWODY2 AND WPC D2 AVG QPF. WIDESPREAD 1400J MLCAPE. RATHER LARGE
BULK SHEAR DURING THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. SREF PWAT 2.15 INCHES,
2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. AGAIN 1200J MLCAPE BUT LESS EXTENSIVE
AND SOUTH OF I-78. SREF PWAT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL (STILL AROUND 2 INCHES)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS WITH A WINDSHIFT TO NW LATE IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE: WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY DRY MOST OF THE DAY WITH WAA SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING DELMARVA AND S CENTRAL PA LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERSPREADING
OUR AREA AT NIGHT. PWAT 1SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DELMARVA DAYTIME
OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AT NIGHT. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...MODELED MLCAPE INCREASED BY TWO TIMES TO 1200J NOW FOR
THE DELMARVA. LOOKS RATHER UNSTABLE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LARGE.
PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR.

500MB WINDS 50 KT SOUTHERN PA. PWAT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. WEST WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 20 MPH OR LESS. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRY WITH THE ESSENTIALLY QSTRY FRONT IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR FOR A SHORT TIME. CONFIDENCE:
ONLY AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...GFS BUILDS QUITE A BIT OF MLCAPE IN CENTRAL PA AND THE
EMCWF IS ROBUST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY QPF AND POSSIBLE SVR
STORMS. OUR POPS MAY BE 30 PCT TOO LOW. CONFIDENCE: BELOW
AVERAGE SINCE AM THINKING A WETTER SCENARIO THAN WHAT HAVE FCST.


THIS IS A PATTERN WHEN THE FORECAST HAS RAIN PROBABILITIES ALMOST
EVERY PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION THE MAJORITY OF HOURS WILL BE RAINFREE ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES HERE REGARDING WHAT
YOU MIGHT ENCOUNTER IN TERMS OF SHORT DURATION DELUGES AND A FEW
POCKETS OF WET MICROBURST DAMAGE. IT WONT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE
"ISOLATED" STORM TOTALS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES BY THE END OF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS THIS WEEK OF 1 INCH OR GREATER.

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