MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ggem is north with both waves. Good hit, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The reality of the situation though with the two waves being so close is that if wave 1 goes north so should wave two, the first wave isn't a dynamic system that would pull the boundary south, if anything it slows it up and keeps it north, it's possible the models are having trouble again because of two different features following so closely. I agree. The hi-res models might pick up on that idea later on today and this evening. Its almost nowcast time folks. Start to look at radars, latest upper air maps, and water vapor loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GEM is N and everyone does well. Ratios N will make up for lack of precip . The NAM is now alone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I stand by these numbers 2-4" seems to be a good call for anyone north of the city.. 3-5" is a good call for NYC right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GEM is N and everyone does well. Ratios N will make up for lack of precip . The NAM is now alone . Good north trends today thus far. We have a ways to go in order for something more substantial, but at least its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 High res GFS snowmap agrees with a general screw zone near the city Your "screwzone" is downsloping off the Hudson Highlands (its western edge corresponds exactly with the mountain front). I assure you that has a 0.0% chance of verifying, as it's never verifying in any storm that I've observed or reviewed records for. It probably is an artifact of the DEM used in the model. Can't black box models, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 2-4" seems to be a good call for anyone north of the city.. 3-5" is a good call for NYC right now Want to put a pair of tix on it for the upcoming season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think this is what happened with the overnight snow 2 weeks ago, every model was 50-75 miles too far south with it at 6-12 hours out because a system had preceded it. Models always seem to struggle when multiple systems are in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Your "screwzone" is downsloping off the Hudson Highlands (its western edge corresponds exactly with the mountain front). I assure you that has a 0.0% chance of verifying, as it's never verifying in any storm that I've observed or reviewed records for. It probably is an artifact of the DEM used in the model. Can't black box models, folks. Except that it takes longer to changever at the coast and then the second wave hits CNJ/SNJ and LI, but whatevs. I think it's too far South anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 As of 11:33 am, the NWS has posted a weenie suicide warning for AmericanWx posters from NYC, LI, North Jersey, and the Hudson Valley, while posters in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are now under a weenie suicide watch. :>) As I said yesterday I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI). Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one. If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote yesterday afternoon. I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ggem shows a decent event for nyc 3-6 seems like a lock for us... Anything over that is a bonus Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The UKMET is very odd, its mostly south of NYC and vicinity 12-18Z with the 2nd wave (not AS south as the NAM or GFS) and then it bumps it north 18-00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Want to put a pair of tix on it for the upcoming season? We have similar thinking on totals. Why would I bet. Now if you thought NYC was getting 8-12" then I would bet the house lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 3-6 should be the call for trenton north to nyc and 4-8 south jersey and philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We have similar thinking on totals. Why would I bet. Now if you thought NYC was getting 8-12" then I would bet the house lol I think this one is coming North. I'm cautiously optimistic. 3-6" may end up being too low for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE is 25mm total at KNYC . Not sure how much is snow yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE is 25mm total at KNYC . Not sure how much is snow yet .Yes, it's also north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukie and gefs are north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-8 on gefs and Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-8 on gefs and Ukie IMO, the Ukmet is 6"-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 De blasio just announced "from what we know now, NYC could see up to 8". " I am sure everyone heard 8" and missed the "up to" part. RGEM looks good for NENJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think this one is coming North. I'm cautiously optimistic. 3-6" may end up being too low for a lot of the area. Latest guidance all has it coming north but right now its best to be cautiously optimistic. Cant complain regardless. 22" snowpack on March 4th & 63" for the season is good enough for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukie and gefs are north Seems like the GEFS has been consistently north of the op last couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can someone post the UKMET totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can someone post the UKMET totals? Total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can someone post the UKMET totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A lot of precip on the UKIE. Some is rain tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The RPM just took a monster leap North, god that model is cracked out. 12Z it wiffed completely south of NYC now it has 2-4 to the Mass PIke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The RPM just took a monster leap North, god that model is cracked out. 12Z it wiffed completely south of NYC now it has 2-4 to the Mass PIke.You have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.