Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rgem is really not that bad: RGEM steady as she goes for 5-7" from Cape May to High Point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 For areas north of Phl our best shot is the first wave tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM steady as she goes for 5-7" from Cape May to High Point...Looks like less than that around immediate nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think thats all she wrote folks.. id aim for about 3" in Newark/NYC, less north, more south Agree. Go with the seasonal trend 2-4 inch event....been that way all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 rgem puts some nw areas in the bullseye , great run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like less than that around immediate nyc metro Nyc gets skunked in a way as its late to change over tonight and too far north for the last wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 50 miles is a lot to ask for inside of 48 hours, especially considering the RGEM is on the northern end of most guidanceNormally I would tend to agree but this map gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nyc gets skunked in a way as its late to change over tonight and too far north for the last wave Karma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Agree. Go with the seasonal trend 2-4 inch event....been that way all year. rgem puts some nw areas in the bullseye , great run for us Looks like less than that around immediate nyc metro Bingo as Allsnow explains in the 2 posts below. For areas north of Phl our best shot is the first wave tonight... Nyc gets skunked in a way as its late to change over tonight and too far north for the last wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks by 3am nyc is sleet and by 7am light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The first part being stronger may nudge the next wave which would be colder south. Something to keep in mind, since much of the first part of this will be wasted on rain and slop in the city and coast, and NW of there doesn't have much precip. If it breaks down this way, I don't see anyone besides maybe a part of Ocean County or near ACY exceeding 8". The NAM just shears everything out and wastes too much on non snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Still a whole day of model runs. Looks like a 3-6 inch storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think thats all she wrote folks.. id aim for about 3" in Newark/NYC, less north, more southThis looks like 2-3 for nyc and 1-2 north of the city imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not a bad run of the gfs...snow continues after 7am looks like 3-5 so far nyc. More south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Numbers for Northern Suffolk and Southern Suffolk are off. I don't see a 3" gradient over 15 miles or less happening. I think 5-7 for most of Suffolk county is a better call. JMO. It makes whatever sense I want it to make, I created it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Still a whole day of model runs. Looks like a 3-6 inch storm right now.3 yes, 6? Very Seriously doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z light snow continues...costal sections mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-8" areawide on the 12z GFS. Nice to see it not shift South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 rgem puts some nw areas in the bullseye , great run for us that can't be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Again how quickly you can change over tonight north of Ttn will make or break this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I stand by these numbers Well I'm going to go: 1-3" for Sullivan, Ulster and Dutchess Counties. 2-4" for Orange, Northern Rockland, Northern Westchester and Fairfield Counties 3-5" for Northern Warren, Sussex, Northern Morris, Western Passaic, Northern Bergen, Southern Rockland, Southern Westchester, Northern Nassau and Northern Suffolk Counties. 4-6" for Southern Warren, Southern Morris, Eastern Passaic, Southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Bronx, New York, Queens Counties 5-8" for Hunterdon, Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Union, Northern Monmouth, Richmond, Kings, Southern Nassau and Southern Suffolk Counties. 6-10" for Mercer, Southern Monmouth, Northern Burlington and Northern Ocean Counties. I think I covered the entire NYC metropolitan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 that can't be right It's perfectly correct, the RGEM flips those areas over to snow faster, then precip is starting to taper by the time the coast flips over, and the second wave glances them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-8" areawide on the 12z GFS. Nice to see it not shift South. Looks to have shifted North a bit...definitely throws more precip up here...probably close to 0.4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-8 area wide on the gfs. More on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This looks exactly like the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RAPs last 4-5 hrs of its run are almost identical to HRRR...way north of GFS and most other guidance...looks similar to RGEM... Sharp cutoff but roclans county/ NYC/long island and NNJ looks to be in heavy snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is a very nice 4"-8" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Do you think Monmouth county still receives warning criteria? I see maps of 6-8 8-10 but with all these runs this morning do you think it will be knocked down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rap and HRRR drop 3" for nyc and long island in less than 3hrs between 1am and 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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