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February 28th-March 2nd possibly significant overrunning event/winter storm

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

If it is going to be cold outside lets keep the glacier, at least you can still have fun outside doing winter stuff. There is no enjoyment with cold and brown period. As for spring like weather after April 17th bring it and keep it coming. Till then a mixed bag of weather can always be expected.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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If it is going to be cold outside lets keep the glacier, at least you can still have fun outside doing winter stuff. There is no enjoyment with cold and brown period. As for spring like weather after April 17th bring it and keep it coming. Till then a mixed bag of weather can always be expected.

thats the main reason I want to keep it too lol, but id be lying if i didnt admit I was eying another consecutive snowcover streak on the heals of last year. See if we can get two years in a row for among the longest stretches of continuous snowcover in record. January 5 was the start date.
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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

GFS looks good for LAF - a good 6-8" of overrunning.

 

Only problem is surface temps get a bit dicey for a time...but nice slug of precip for sure.

 

0z Ukie was sorta interesting with a death band a couple of counties to our south. 

 

Anyways, still a ways out. I trust no models. :D

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Only problem is surface temps get a bit dicey for a time...but nice slug of precip for sure.

 

0z Ukie was sorta interesting with a death band a couple of counties to our south. 

 

Anyways, still a ways out. I trust no models. :D

 

 

Really no organized low pressure with this thing.

 

I would think that if we can keep 850 mb temps a few degrees below 0C with steady precip, as the GFS suggests, it would probably be good enough.  But we'll see.  Plenty of time for something to change.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Really no organized low pressure with this thing.

 

I would think that if we can keep 850 mb temps a few degrees below 0C with steady precip, as the GFS suggests, it would probably be good enough.  But we'll see.  Plenty of time for something to change.

 

Right, 850 and 925 temps are solidly cold on the GFS...so I agree. 12z GGEM is even colder, though a bit south. 

 

But yes, they always change as it gets closer. I'm not going to sweat the details too much right now. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Right, 850 and 925 temps are solidly cold on the GFS...so I agree. 12z GGEM is even colder, though a bit south. 

 

But yes, they always change as it gets closer. I'm not going to sweat the details too much right now. 

 

 

The way I see it, better pull out something good as we're probably in trouble with the next one.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Rare is the time when you're more optimistic than me.  :lol:

 

I'm not locking anything in for that one yet...that would be dumb.  But just not feeling it.

 

Optimistic would be a stretch. Trust me, I'm not even thinking all snow for us with that one...but a mixed bag of something might be on the table. I guess my feeling is I don't see a torching cutter over the QC or ORD. Not with this one anyway. Eh, we'll see.

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rdahlem

rdahlem

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I'm convinced I'm not going to get a big snowfall in the upper Ohio Valley. Our best chance at that was last week and we got a heavy 5" with some freezing rain mixed in at the end. It was a fun storm to track though.

Our snowpack is rapidly melting due to the sun angle, we even made it to freezing today. If this one misses or gets warm, I'm ready to torch so I can get out the golf clubs.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
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Where this should of been. 

 

storm is still 84hrs out and you're already writing it off as usual 

 

I'm not completely ruling it out, but 80-90% chance this is a non-event.  Alek's prediction for this (2.5" of snow) is pretty much the threshold for an 'event' for me.  Would be thrilled with 3-4" of snow with this one, then move on to what looks like a bigger storm potential Tuesday or Wednesday.  If this was seven years ago, with NW trend and all, I sure wouldn't be writing this off, but only the major February 1st storm had a notable NW trend with it.

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