• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Wow

Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp

Recommended Posts

NAM even warms up a lot of NC. I don't love seeing this look after the SREF came in with a lot of warm members.

 

What a nightmare to forecast so close to the event.  If a forecast busts in either direction for ATL, it's going to be quite chaotic around there.  That's the biggest problem area I see now of course.  Areas of NC do try to warm..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NAM another crush job for RDU.

 

Not worried about thickness on this run? Looked like a lot of sleet...but I guess that will be overcome with cooling. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM is not the run RDU wants to see. Raging sleet storm...yikes.

I don't know what to believe. 00z Euro with 1-2" and NAM with piles of sleet. WTF?

At least the 06z GFS was beefier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not worried about thickness on this run? Looked like a lot of sleet...but I guess that will be overcome with cooling.

The verbatim skew-Ts look okay there, though the warm nose around 750 mb will have to be monitored. Not far from disaster for them, but that's where you have to be to score the jackpot.

Of course, our warm noses are always served piping hot, so it would not be surprising to see the warm nose underdone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is when meteorology outweighs modelology...

 

Having experience in this area gives you a lot of insider knowledge into what is actually going to happen..

 

That's why I'm going with more rain than snow for RDU.  Rain to begin with, changing to some snow...1-2 inches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the upstate of sc has a good chance of seeing thunder snow Wednesday night.

I've wondered myself if someone could, especially if you look at the nam. It pretty much brings an axis of convection through ga/sc. probably over done though

 

NAM is warm for north GA

the nam and it's sref are sort of by themselves right now with the rest of the guidance. euro and gfs ensembles, canadian, uk, etc all are south of the nam/sref and much more reasonable with it's waa pattern as the nam is probably overdoing it. If there was other model support besides the nam and it's ensembles/sref then it would be a cause for concern for sure for north ga/sc and parts of nc..but if the rest of the 12z models come in similar to last night, i'm not taking anything it's showing seriously.

 

I just turned on the tv to see what WSB was saying.  Minton showed a series of rough maps for tomorrow afternoon that clearly showed a frozen mix falling in the north ATL metro counties (Cobb, North Fulton, Gwinnett, etc.) by 5pm.   I'm not sure where you got the impression she was calling it a rain only event for ATL.  I mean her map did show rain, but that rain was generally south of I-20 at 5pm, which I don't think anyone here would argue vehemently against right now.

 

Anyway.  Smart people need to get off the roads in N ATL tomorrow by midafternoon.  Hopefully that gets communicated really well as today and tomorrow progress.

I didn't say she did, i was talking about the dude on nbc/channel 11. He flat out said he thought atlanta would see mainly rain with it being dry north and west of town. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not worried about thickness on this run? Looked like a lot of sleet...but I guess that will be overcome with cooling. 

 

Yeah, it was very close verbatim for RDU.   Bummer for CLT though, a lot of rain...yikes..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not worried about thickness on this run? Looked like a lot of sleet...but I guess that will be overcome with cooling. 

 

You always worry about something with winter weather  down here :) I looked at soundings for my house in Youngsvile, and we stay all snow. The 850/925 lines hang just south/east of RDU, so i assume they are mostly snow, maybe some sleet at height of storm.

 

Of course any more NW trend we would worry about sleet.

 

But I do think the NAM/SREF members are too amped so probably overdoing it,, therefore this is the warmest/most NW outlier at the moment in my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

I didn't say she did, i was talking about the dude on nbc/channel 11. He flat out said he thought atlanta would see mainly rain with it being dry north and west of town. 

 

Someone else posted about WSB earlier, not you - I was replying to them re: Minton. :)  I haven't watched channel 11.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ol' Chester...yeah...Really made no sense at all based on what FFC has said and also what numerous other model suites have shown.

That's alarming. The fear of busting a forecast should not supersede the responsibility to the public. One would think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it was very close verbatim for RDU.   Bummer for CLT though, a lot of rain...yikes..

 

CLT looks fine to me. During the bulk of the precip 850's are cool enough and thickness looks better than RDU. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know what to believe. 00z Euro with 1-2" and NAM with piles of sleet. WTF?

At least the 06z GFS was beefier.

 

Doubt it is piles of sleet. The warmest mid-level NAM sounding at RDU it gets to 0.2C at 800mb at FHOUR 45. Now perhaps it is greater in between hours, but I think heavy snow rates would overcome that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's alarming. The fear of busting a forecast should not supersede the responsibility to the public. One would think.

 

I guess there's a reason he's on in the AM & not prime-time.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You always worry about something with winter weather  down here :) I looked at soundings for my house in Youngsvile, and we stay all snow. The 850/925 lines hang just south/east of RDU, so i assume they are mostly snow, maybe some sleet at height of storm.

 

Of course any more NW trend we would worry about sleet.

 

But I do think the NAM/SREF members are too amped so probably overdoing it,, therefore this is the warmest/most NW outlier at the moment in my opinion.

 

Yea just looked at the output and it looks like RDU is gonna jackpot this one. That will be a raging heavy snow...hell CLT can probably pull out 8-10. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've wondered myself if someone could, especially if you look at the nam. It pretty much brings an axis of convection through ga/sc. probably over done though

 

the nam and it's sref are sort of by themselves right now with the rest of the guidance. euro and gfs ensembles, canadian, uk, etc all are south of the nam/sref and much more reasonable with it's waa pattern as the nam is probably overdoing it. If there was other model support besides the nam and it's ensembles/sref then it would be a cause for concern for sure for north ga/sc and parts of nc..but if the rest of the 12z models come in similar to last night, i'm not taking anything it's showing seriously.

 

I didn't say she did, i was talking about the dude on nbc/channel 11. He flat out said he thought atlanta would see mainly rain with it being dry north and west of town. 

 

No worries, Chris. Glenn Burns said there would be a pop-up snow storm in your neck of the woods at exactly 4:43PM Wednesday. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will not be established until the system begins to fire tomorrow. 

Alright, I'll go ahead and throw these dirty words out there.  I'm a little worried about convection along the gulf coast robbing our moisture.  Should I be?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the first time we've seen model trends going into the "warm" area....  we will have to see if it continues.  Another 24 hours of model runs like that and most of the area will be more liquid than frozen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi-Res NAM cut down on totals for much of NC....looks more realistic now. .50 - .75 for most of WNC. CLT east is .75 - 1. RDU is still just over 1. of QPF. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CLT looks fine to me. During the bulk of the precip 850's are cool enough and thickness looks better than RDU. 

 

No they don't.  CLT has a huge warm nose, would be rain/sleet as 2m's are above freezing.  Sorry bud.

post-2311-0-56335800-1424789121_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-96305600-1424789128_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alright, I'll go ahead and throw these dirty words out there.  I'm a little worried about convection along the gulf coast robbing our moisture.  Should I be?

 

This is the very last thing to worry about. Remember it can also enhance the storm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.