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Norlun Trough Discussion - Feb. 19


NorEastermass128

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Nice little mesolow on the BTV WRF...clocks DAW/SFM hard.

 

There is definitely a trough out there already. The NAM and RGEM actually have it fairly well located upon initialization it looks like

 

post-44-0-46798500-1424234802_thumb.png

 

Easterly flow increasing should help this drift west later Wednesday, so that tells me places north of PWM are probably out of the NORLUN game. The transition to Miller B is a different story though.

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Models are really backing off my area with this...looks OK through DAW/IZG though. SREFs never really bit on my area yesteray so I'll give them credit. We'll see how it plays out though.

 

Yeah I went with the cut off at Merrimack County. Consensus starting to look like you'll just miss out on the goods.

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Wonder if Portland, Maine pulls the 7/10 Split

 

I don't think we whiff, but I could easily envision just SW getting clocked by the NORLUN, then the Midcoast Mauler developing to the east.

 

I do think the inverted trough gets caught in the upper flow and progresses northeast up the coast. While it does that it could lay down a quick 3-6 just about everywhere.

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