Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I don't think we whiff, but I could easily envision just SW getting clocked by the NORLUN, then the Midcoast Mauler developing to the east. I do think the inverted trough gets caught in the upper flow and progresses northeast up the coast. While it does that it could lay down a quick 3-6 just about everywhere. Kinda hurts when places left and right of my hood might get clocked and we're left with scraps. Just dealt with that last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kinda hurts when places left and right of my hood might get clocked and we're left with scraps. Just dealt with that last storm. Or it could just as easily set up over the PWM area. That's the tough part about these features. I normally would have warnings up now, but I would rather see the whites of its eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gutner seems confident in 6-10 minimum for most of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gutner seems confident in 6-10 minimum for most of ME I think that's fair, I'm confident in a 4-8 or 6-9 with a band of higher amounts in the NORLUN and another jackpot for the Midcoast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Brian has some hope yet, the latest RAP is pretty far SW with the initial stages of the NORLUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gutner seems confident in 6-10 minimum for most of ME Maninix will be wearing his sweater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Brian has some hope yet, the latest RAP is pretty far SW with the initial stages of the NORLUN.all eggs are in the NSSL WRF. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 all eggs are in the NSSL WRF. lol Hey, why not? If there is a snow event where it should perform okay it would be an unstable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 all eggs are in the NSSL WRF. lol Saw that. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 6z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rockland FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Brian has some hope yet, the latest RAP is pretty far SW with the initial stages of the NORLUN. This is a nightmare for you. No two models are really similar. 6z RGEM is warning criteria in the arm of the cape and advisory elsewhere. Nam is flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm trying to understand what the rgem is doing down here. Seems very aggressive would love for it to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rockland FTW? Midcoast/Downeast winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is a nightmare for you. No two models are really similar. 6z RGEM is warning criteria in the arm of the cape and advisory elsewhere. Nam is flurries! I believe that would be more than that just based on the QPF output and potential ratios. Wow, that's like 6-12"+ for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rockland FTW? RGEM has me concerned. Bumped up QPF at RKD based on 06z run. Ride the hot hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is a nightmare for you. No two models are really similar. 6z RGEM is warning criteria in the arm of the cape and advisory elsewhere. Nam is flurries! NAM seems to be the biggest outlier on the Miller B type set up, but at least focuses the NORLUN in the same general area up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro Ens is a PWM smoke show. Impressive odds for >0.5" liquid for such a small scale feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro Ens is a PWM smoke show. Impressive odds for >0.5" liquid for such a small scale feature. I half expect to wake up to a condo collapser this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM seems to be the biggest outlier on the Miller B type set up, but at least focuses the NORLUN in the same general area up here. I just don't know what you guys do up there. Rgem was pretty poor here last event missing by 50 miles with the banding even at game time. Obviously you've got to wait for 12z and hope for consenus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tickling 1" qpf (25.4mm) on the 06z RGEM here, Little leaary of it after this past weekends bustorama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tickling 1" qpf (25.4mm) on the 06z RGEM here, Little leaary of it after this past weekends bustorama Glad I'm not responsible for a public forecast. At this point it feels like a coin flip. Wake me when it's time to start watching radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I just don't know what you guys do up there. Rgem was pretty poor here last event missing by 50 miles with the banding even at game time. Obviously you've got to wait for 12z and hope for consenus. I think we're in pretty good shape on our two areas of potentially higher snowfall. That upper end could be impressive, but I can't really go with those totals just yet. All I can really do is tell people that a significant snowfall is probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Maybe the 09z SREFS will give us a clue.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BOX .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...7 AM UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF TRUROWITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED MOVEMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTSUPPER SHORT WAVE TROF ADVERTISED BY MODELS DIGGING THROUGH THEGREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER VERYLATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MAIN NEAR TERM ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES.RATHER LARGE DEPARTURES SEEN BETWEEN FORECAST AND OBSERVEDTEMPERATURES...BUT THERE IS ALSO GREAT SPATIAL VARIABILITY ACROSSSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW ZEROIN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH CEF AT -14 AND ORE AT -12. YET ORH IS13 ABOVE AS IS SFZ. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES IN NEARTERM TO REFLECT REALITY BUT THIS MAY PROVE CHALLENGING ASTEMPERATURE RECOVERY TAKES PLACE AT DIFFERENT RATES AND FROM VERYDIFFERENT STARTING POINTS.TODAY...OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPERJET. INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW NORTH TO MASSACHUSETTSCOAST. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LIGHT PCPN AREA ACROSS OUTER CAPECOD TO NEAR CAPE ANN. WRF-NMM ALSO PICKS UP ON THIS BUT KEEPSMOST LIFT/MOISTURE JUST OFF CAPE ANN. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAINCHANCE POPS ALONG THE MASS COAST FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CAPE ANN.ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THEGREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT REACHES THECATSKILLS/POCONOS TOWARD EVENING AND THE UPPER COLD POOL AXIS ISTO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT PCPN CHANCES LOOKLIMITED UNTIL THE FEATURES SHIFT FARTHER EAST.TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO 850 MB TEMPS OF -15CTO -18C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Glad I'm not responsible for a public forecast. At this point it feels like a coin flip. Wake me when it's time to start watching radar. It will be cool though just watching how this evolve as the day goes on from a weather enthusiast's view with nothing on the line.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Glad I'm not responsible for a public forecast. At this point it feels like a coin flip. Wake me when it's time to start watching radar.Can't be any worse than forecasting 18" and waking up to 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 RGEM is close to clocking Cape Ann to Cape Cod Better yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Can't be any worse than forecasting 18" and waking up to 2" The whole dynamic with this one is different. While there were certainly some x-factors with that last storm, it looked like much more of a slam-dunk for a generalized heavy synoptic snowfall. With an inverted trough, you know going into it that it's a bit of a crapshoot and that it'll be a much smaller bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro seems to be a hybrid norlun/miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.