BxEngine Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lmao whatever u say dude Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 .3-.4 already in jersey Precip Water Values Critical Thickness --Not even in the same room -atm moisture transport http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/tran/tran_sf.gif?1424537163190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 By the looks of the radar, we are in for a nice thumping.That is a hell of a wall of white entering jersey.How are everyone's winds? It's been a howling here for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So far clear no winds no snow. But that will soon change for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So posting what tv mets are saying are not allowed here and deleted but amateur weenies posting their inflated totals are allowed...got it. Its rude that my post was deleted because it seems selective when banter is allowed here all time Because this isnt the vendor thread. Stop whining and post in the correct thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temperatures at ground level deft will determine what happens around tge time of change to rain etc..grounds depth of frozen stuff, fairly deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Right but then why is banter allowed and weenie forecasts...just be fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I noticed the nam 12z never changes nyc to rain. It changes to freezing rain at 6z tonight and moves out a couple of hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Right but then why is banter allowed and weenie forecasts...just be fair Because i cant be on here 24/7. If a post is wrong, dispute THE POST with science, if its banter, report it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 VIS echo tops http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-EET-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nothing out here yet. Under heavy virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest HRRR Is this for the total storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Is this for the total storm? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yes3-4 for my area, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 after the initial batch comes through, there looks to be quite few dry slots...should still reach advisory level snowfalls around NYC, but for once I whole-heatedly agree with Upton - 2-4 was the correct call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 after the initial batch comes through, there looks to be quite few dry slots...should still reach advisory level snowfalls around NYC, but for once I whole-heatedly agree with Upton - 2-4 was the correct call The dry slots could easily fill in between now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 SNow into Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 after the initial batch comes through, there looks to be quite few dry slots...should still reach advisory level snowfalls around NYC, but for once I whole-heatedly agree with Upton - 2-4 was the correct call The dry areas will all go well to the north and west the heavy echoes near DC will turn up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The dry areas will all go well to the north and west the heavy echoes near DC will turn up the coast fair enough - still like the 2-4 call, conservative has been the way to go this year in the immediate NYC area... I could see western NJ pulling some 4-7 numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The dry areas will all go well to the north and west the heavy echoes near DC will turn up the coastYeah, towards NE PA and Southern NY. Nice shaft zone from the BGM CWA and spreading East to Orange and Ulster Counties I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Someone always get unexpectedly dry slotted...good point...these things tend to come in quicker then leave a heavy thump...would not be shocked to see it over for most of nj before midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 fair enough - still like the 2-4 call, conservative has been the way to go this year in the immediate NYC area... I could see western NJ pulling some 4-7 numbers hmmm. Mt Holly is going 6-8 in my area. Large area too in the 6-8 band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Upton update at about 10 something this morning NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- SNOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE ENTERING AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW FAST DOES A LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE FROM AROUND 875-975 HPA MOVE IN AND DEGREE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR GETTING LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE AS COASTAL FRONT/WARM FRONT APPROACH TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND SBU/ALY WRF INDICATING A WEAK MESO- LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF LI...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE TRAPPING OF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR DOWN INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LI AND NYC METRO AND POINTS N AND W TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLDS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE...A BIT MORE FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUM MAY BE NEEDED AND FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. ANOTHER MODEL TREND IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY FROM NW TO SE...BASED ON A FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. ANOTHER TREND IS REDUCE SLIGHTLY THE OVERALL QPF...AND TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL RUN FROM NE NJ INTO SW CT. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF TO THE EAST... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AS FOR SNOW...GENERAL EXPECTATION IS A 1 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND...AND A 3-7 INCH SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE...HEAVIEST ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT. AS FOR ICE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF A TENTH...POSSIBLY 2 TENTHS...OF AN INCH OF ICE IN A CORRIDOR RUNNING FROM NE NJ...NORTHEN PORTIONS OF NYC METRO/LI INTO SW CT...AND UP TO A GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ICE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WERE BASED ON THE WET BULB OF AN AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND THEIR DEW POINTS. HIGHS SUNDAY WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THESE SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Before anyone goes cliff diving because of the radar...models don't bring the thump in until 4-5pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That radar in pa is sort of sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That radar in pa is sort of sketchy It is? How so? Looks pretty good to me. Look at Philly for what is heading this way... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Before anyone goes cliff diving because of the radar...models don't bring the thump in until 4-5pm...Yeah the HRRR clearly showed this band hitting the philly area and EPA pretty hard before weakening as it works its way into NJ. More snow will be coming through to follow, and although EPA will see higher totals, we will still get our few inches or so in the NYC area. Again, I still think it's a 2-4" snowfall for the NYC/NENJ area with the 5-6" amounts further S and W. The forecasts of 4-8" for our areas are overdone (just in my opinion), unless we're factoring in EPA/WNJ. If it looks like a 3 or 4 inch snowfall, no reason to spread it out into the 4-8" range (because if I doubt we'd ever call for 1-3" if we were expecting 4-6") . Upton's call looks perfectly fine for what is expected and modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It is? How so? Looks pretty good to me. Look at Philly for what is heading this way... Sent from my iPhone Yeah, I don't think anyone east of the Pa/NJ border has to worry much about dry slotting, the snow is going to move more NNE vs NE or ENE so the dry area should not get close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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