jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Number 1 analog by CIPS is 1/22/05 It actually fits well besides the fact that the vort on 1/22/05 tracked a couple hundred miles south of where this one should. It was able to tap into the Gulf some which made for a heavy snow shield well into the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It actually fits well besides the fact that the vort on 1/22/05 tracked a couple hundred miles south of where this one should. It was able to tap into the Gulf some which made for a heavy snow shield well into the Midwest. There was blocking for the 2005 storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS Bufkit showing potential for 60-70mph gusts in the area on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We'll definitely get a wind advisory with this possibly a high wind warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS Bufkit showing potential for 60-70mph gusts in the area on Sunday morning. holy... with fresh snow? that would call for whiteouts/blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Those qpf numbers indicate 2-4 Nyc and nnj..maybe 1-3 central jersey and 3-6 LI The trend posts are wishcasting...its not changing..this is not going to be a big storm...take what you are getting..it aint bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 holy... with fresh snow? that would call for whiteouts/blizzard conditionsI'll give u a prediction by tomrw this time NYC is under a blizzard watch for 4-8 inches with 35 mph gusting to 50 late Sat. Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Let's see what our "king" euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 According to the ne forum as of now the Euro is the sane as 12z but it's early in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro continues to track the 500mb low to the southwest of NYC. Decent run from NYC West, good run for LI and an epic run for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro continues to track the 500mb low to the southwest of NYC. Decent run from NYC West, good run for LI and an epic run for NNEQpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro continues to track the 500mb low to the southwest of NYC. Decent run from NYC West, good run for LI and an epic run for NNE Seriously Maine gets destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 at least 2 TV mets, including Lee Goldberg who is #2 in metro area upped forcast to 3-6 based on the tretrends.smile n sit back n watch it evolve.4 once we r on right side of trend. Give euro few minutes n ull see more I honestly doubt the Euro will look any better for us. This one is not going to be a big snowstorm for our area. 2-4" take it or leave it, in the NNJ/NYC area and more out on long island of course, especially east end. This one is for Boston and North of there with another heavier (though not nearly as heavy as up there) band of snow setting up over CT and SNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Those qpf numbers indicate 2-4 Nyc and nnj..maybe 1-3 central jersey and 3-6 LI The trend posts are wishcasting...its not changing..this is not going to be a big storm...take what you are getting..it aint bad 5- 10 eastern long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Qpf? general .20" northern 1/2 of NJ into western LI. Higher as you go east .40-.60 central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-5" and be happy. euro basically is holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro weenie, 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro held srv.Fair nuf , was wrong. tomorrow decides all when wave is sampled. Good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-5" and be happy. euro basically is holding steady. Agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I honestly doubt the Euro will look any better for us. This one is not going to be a big snowstorm for our area. 2-4" take it or leave it, in the NNJ/NYC area and more out on long island of course, especially east end. This one is for Boston and North of there with another heavier (though not nearly as heavy as up there) band of snow setting up over CT and SNY It is very consistent with prior runs for metro NYC. 2-4" is a good forecast to have out there at this time. I think it has more of a chance to be a 1-3" event than a 4-6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Winter grasps,stop being a Debbie downer.nj has had snow this year.... NYC above average,long island decently above average.. you make it sound like end of world lol Clearly not end of world ! However, anticipating models trending towards a big snowstorm for our area (NYC area) when there are no signs of it, is just bound to lead many to insanity. Obviously this winter has not been terrible by any stretch. People especially hammered on the east end around Orient, NY should have lots to feel great about this winter so far and will probably make more "positive", hopeful posts....Oh, wait..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Someone was saying someplace, multiply by 18 whatever the qfp, and that would give you snow amounts... What ratio they using 18:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Someone was saying someplace, multiply by 18 whatever the qfp, and that would give you snow amounts... What ratio they using18:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Clearly not end of world ! However, anticipating models trending towards a big snowstorm for our area (NYC area) when there are no signs of it, is just bound to lead many to insanity. Obviously this winter has not been terrible by any stretch. People especially hammered on the east end around Orient, NY should have lots to feel great about this winter so far and will probably make more "positive", hopeful posts....Oh, wait..... hey I love winter, I enjoy what mother nature brings, I don't get why puerile get bent out of shape over a storm sometimes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And all of Suffolk you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18:1 good ratio to go with for this storm? roughly that's about 10.3 out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18:1 good ratio to go with for this storm? roughly that's about 10.3 out this way. With winds 18:1 is doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18:1 good ratio to go with for this storm? roughly that's about 10.3 out this way. Temps in the snow growth region support good ratios but the winds could kill it. I honestly don't know the answer to this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18:1 good ratio to go with for this storm? roughly that's about 10.3 out this way.I'd say 12:1. Anything higher is a gift. Winds are screaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18:1 good ratio to go with for this storm? roughly that's about 10.3 out this way. Remember wind is terrible for good snow ratios. You will see good precip amounts out there but I highly doubt you see 18:1 there. Always be careful when using potential ratios to predict snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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