The 4 Seasons Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Exactly snow88. The overall look is still as good or better, getting hung up or worried about QPF right now is not important. All good trends tonight for NYC and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yep ggem cut back big time. Still has the vort going south just everything is shunted east...2-4 type deal Yup and the IVT was further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol GFS may be right You have to go with seasonal trends and this storm Is no different. We snow 2-5 inches and Boston gets 12-20. There were improvements on all the models at H5 today but it's not enough to Give our area any major snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Exactly snow88. The overall look is still as good or better, getting hung up or worried about QPF right now is not important. All good trends tonight for NYC and CT. QPF should be the least of worries right now. Lets get the track of the H5 first and then worry about precip totals. Yup and the IVT was further south this run. Barely south You have to go with seasonal trends and this storm Is no different. We snow 2-5 inches and Boston gets 12-20. There were improvements on all the models at H5 today but it's not enough to Give our area any major snows. Not enough today but who knows what tomorrow will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All season in general there are improvements in the upper levels but not snow.....great for maps to look at, but not enough to get snow on the ground. Sounds great but just doesn't cut it. Still a 2-4" snow event, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No reason to. These troughs are really tricky. GGEM still shows several inches for the area. H5 still looks great so not a bad run at all despite the precip. What exactly are you expecting? I think it's been pretty clear for awhile now that a big solution is off the table for most of this region. The storm just can't develop in time to really hit us hard. Take your 2-4" and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You have to go with seasonal trends and this storm Is no different. We snow 2-5 inches and Boston gets 12-20. There were improvements on all the models at H5 today but it's not enough to Give our area any major snows. Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 so now that the ivt is SOUTH of the area there's no concern of it "always going north",right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nearly every model run for the last 4 or so storms has consistently shown a great solution for them (SNE). No waivering, no borderline scenarios, no "please move further south/north/whatever, just incredible! The last 3 storms have been a redeveloping bombing clipper, an I-90 jackpot SWFE, and an arctic front with overrunning. If you could tailor-make storms for New England, those are it. And this would be another one. Classic Nina-like pattern with no southern stream to speak of, also +NAO and +AO. That's why it's been a non-winter south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eastern LI is now .50+ on every model, I think they are a lock for a 5-10 snowstorm. 5-10+ I think rather close to 12+ possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What exactly are you expecting? I think it's been pretty clear for awhile now that a big solution is off the table for most of this region. The storm just can't develop in time to really hit us hard. Take your 2-4" and be happy with it. I'm expecting several inches but the position of the trough will be the tough part. The models may not have a handle of this until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 5-10+ I think rather close to 12+ possibly The UKIE hits your area pretty nicely with the IVT. I think you're too bullish at this point. Start low and go higher if necessary as confidence grows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The last 3 storms have been a redeveloping bombing clipper, an I-90 jackpot SWFE, and an arctic front with overrunning. If you could tailor-make storms for New England, those are it. And this would be another one. Classic Nina-like pattern with no southern stream to speak of, also +NAO and +AO. That's why it's been a non-winter south of NYC. Non winter in terms of snow but not cold which is why so many snow lovers (espec south and west of NYC) are edgy. Cold without snow is frustrating to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Non winter in terms of snow but not cold which is why so many snow lovers (espec south and west of NYC) are edgy. Cold without snow is frustrating to say the least! Ninas are also known for cold to rain to cold patterns in the Mid-Atlantic. So much for the STJ and blocking this winter, unlike what most thought would happen this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ninas are also known for cold to rain to cold patterns in the Mid-Atlantic. So much for the STJ and blocking this winter, unlike what most thought would happen this fall. Many people predicted a good winter for the mid atlantic because they were banking on a weak El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How's the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Many people predicted a good winter for the mid atlantic because they were banking on a weak El Nino. NAO was predicted to be overall neg which has huge impacts further south you go.. MA, SE . Has barely been neg this winter unfortunately, would of been a historic winter for a lot of the NE and MA and maybe SE. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAO was predicted to be overall neg which has huge impacts further south you go.. MA, SE . Has barely been neg this winter unfortunately, would of been a historic winter for a lot of the NE and MA and maybe SE. IMO. If the NAO was negative for Juno, we would have been buried. I think we would have close to Boston's totals if we did have a -NAO. Good chance we could have beaten 96 this winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If the NAO was negative for Juno, we would have been buried. I think we would have close to Boston's totals if we did have a -NAO. Good chance we could have beaten 9 6 this winter . No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No No what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think a -NAO would have helped with the "blizzard". It closed off too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 .4 nyc with ratios is more than 2-4 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Posted Today, 10:33 PM 2/13 00z Summary Sat PM (2/14) - Sun AM (2/15) QPF NYC region (CNJ- NYC) SREF: 0.10 - 0.20 NAM: 0.15 - 0.40 RGEM: (0.50+ likely) GFS: 0.10 - 0.25 GGEM: 0.30 - 0.50 GEFS: 0.15 - 0.25 UKMET: 0.05 - 0.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think a -NAO would have helped with the "blizzard". It closed off too late. We would need some type of blocking or -AO to help us...similar to last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There are certainly trends that favor certain areas. But just because other storms have evolved a certain way does not mean that this one will. In '09-'10, DC and Baltimore got rocked while NYC largely missed out. But in mid-late February, storms started to bust through, and NYC had a couple of big storms thereafter. With this storm, things are trending better for us. The mets constantly say ignore the QPF, look at the models. Each model has gotten better aloft so far this run. We still have 48 hours until this storm hits. If the blizzard bust taught you guys anything, it's that things can still change in a big way between now and event time. Just amazing that when one model cuts QPF people go jumping off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 .4 nyc with ratios is more than 2-4 no?But if you blend all models 2-4 looks like a reasonable call but I can see 3-6 for our area. Also, since I'm sure you'll ask, the winds look very impressive, gusts over 50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKIE looks all kinds of awful for our area, wasters LI still sees about .50 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 .4 nyc with ratios is more than 2-4 no? That GGEM snow map that was posted shows 4 to 6 for most people on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Number 1 analog by CIPS is 1/22/05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.