40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I have brothers in both Concord (MA) and Harvard. Both areas look to do really well again. They are going to smoke exhaust imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Woburn, Winchester, Reading. We are going to see amounts range from 1' of ennui over 4 days that measures 8", to 24" in about a 5-8 mi span. burlington on the woburn line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol, just sitting back waiting for it to take shape. Given model performance even at this range this year I'm not too worried and expect the slink to continue I like you better when you're on my team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 burlington on the woburn line. You're good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I like you better when you're on my team. Jack Mode Engaged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nice. Hope he gets nailed. I think topography will play a bigger role than normal without the deeper synoptic lift. Or at least enhance the seeder feeder processes...from up here all the way down there. The flow looks pretty blocked with a good deal of veering in the lower level soundings and what will likely be a stout inversion with surface cold air locked in with warming above. You'll get moist maritime air coming off the Atlantic but gets stuck below the inversion and wrung out from low level terrain and boundary locations. That set up is one that screams meso-scale nuances like coastal fronts and topography. "weenie ridge" in Princeton . E slope of Wa Wa looks primed in "ORH county hills" that area that juts up to about 1400' on mountain road facing East looks good. Depending on location of CF , Blue hills could be absolutely EPIC with CF enhancement and "upslope" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I have brothers in both Concord (MA) and Harvard. Both areas look to do really well again. You look better than them. They will be sucking coastal front exhaust IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This general 12-24" should cover it....just nw of that cf induced convergence will get the 12" that measures 8". Fascinating to watch, yet nerve wracking. The totals with this will be all over the place depending on how and when it's measured. These are 3-4 day totals, so all the forecasts could say something like 12-24" storm totals, but if you don't shovel till Tuesday morning, expect 8-15" in your driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well, shot at history. When you make it to the SB and lose, are you spoiled because it depresses you?? Great season, right?? Good analogy. Some of us are just happy to be playing as a wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Jack Mode Engaged! Stakes are higher here than usual, though. i'm sure you wouldn't care if you measured 8", while friends 7 miles aways measured over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 i'm sure you wouldn't care if you measured 8", while friends 7 miles aways measured over 20". Happens regularly up here, lol. Win some ya lose some. Probably on a tighter scale than that even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Happens regularly up here, lol. Win some ya lose some. Probably on a tighter scale than that even. Well, you know where you stand up there......it's all terrain driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Stakes are higher here than usual, though. i'm sure you wouldn't care if you measured 8", while friends 7 miles aways measured over 20". Models are very consistent for at least 10" for me. Whatever comes on top of that is a bonus in my book. All this long duration event is doing is shoring up the pack to at least 20" before the next big one for my area. This stuff will settle so even if you get 2' you might only gain like at most 8" to the pack because it will come out to be 15 to 1 fluff at least maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 They are going to smoke exhaust imo. You think? I really don't get a good sense of where the CF sets up and the nuances of the role it plays just above/below it (other than p-type issues). I know Harvard is east of the ORH hills, but I got the sense that they'd do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Hey who has RGEM 54 hr, I know will said they put it out offhour edit...for some reason these maps always save at a ****ty quality for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Stations out here don't like going out on a limb for a long-duration event. We'll just take it 12 hours at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 rgemqpf54.gif edit...for some reason these maps always save at a ****ty quality for me. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well, you know where you stand up there......it's all terrain driven. Yeah that's very true... but sounds like you have a good idea of your local climo and the meso-scale there. Its all about expectations, but forecasts don't always come true. Like those nights I expect the west slope to get bombed and it ends up over here on the east. If that coastal front is further west, you're golden. But I agree, forecast with what you know and if a surprise happens, its a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 From BOX's Winter Storm Warning: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A LOCALIZED BAND OF 18 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOSTON...TO BEDFORD...TO BEVERLY AND LAWRENCE CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. Boston's comeback is nothing short of extraordinary. Boston's October-December snowfall was just 2.9". Previously, the snowiest winter when Boston < 3" snowfall during the October-December period was winter 1891-92 when 46.8". To increase the sample size, the snowiest winters when < 4" snow fell during October-December were: 1919-20 73.4" 1892-93 66.0" 2012-13 63.4" The snowiest winters when < 6" snow fell during October-December were: 1977-78 85.1" 1919-20 73.4" 1892-93 66.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 13km res GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 From BOX's Winter Storm Warning: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A LOCALIZED BAND OF 18 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOSTON...TO BEDFORD...TO BEVERLY AND LAWRENCE CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. Boston's comeback is nothing short of extraordinary. Boston's October-December snowfall was just 2.9". Previously, the snowiest winter when Boston < 3" snowfall during the October-December period was winter 1891-92 when 46.8". To increase the sample size, the snowiest winters when < 4" snow fell during October-December were: 1919-20 73.4" 1892-93 66.0" 2012-13 63.4" The snowiest winters when < 6" snow fell during October-December were: 1977-78 85.1" 1919-20 73.4" 1892-93 66.0" Thanks For those stats Don, any stats where with a cut off half way into Jan or like the 20'th , I think Boston had 7 or so thru Jan 23'rd or so Which makes this come back even MORE impressive since it happened all within 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 13km res GFS gfs13kqpf.PNG IF ole Pony O was around, he is gonna see nice enhancement on the E Slope I think MPM if we really want to look at it will be a bit too far east to get in the meat of that E slope enhancement....he is not that far from 1-91 (I think like 8 miles west of greenfield/I 91) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Question... Why the qpf max in Berks.. Is that all orographic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 BOS had 5.5 midnight 1/23, 10.7 midnight 1/24, 35.5 midnight 1/28, 53.7 midnight 2/4, 54.5 mdnight 2/7. Could easily be in the 70s midnight 2/11. Where do we go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 13km res GFS gfs13kqpf.PNG I like this idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Alot here in Northern half of CT are thinking 12 plus inches with this(Kevin thinking 12-18 inches in his hood), NBC 30 not giving any of us more than 10 inches. 6-10 inches is their call. NWS has 8-14 for the same area. Wonder how this shakes out with regard to those ideas???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I like you better when you're on my team. You're in a great spot all of ema is. I just like the cold tuck in this case. OE enhancement should rock on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Someone just nw of it really going to get porked. These events that don't have a great deal of mid level lift always do that. i'm right on the line, I don't care how many times the GFS jacks me. That will be me. Too far northwest. Subsidence city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 13km res GFS gfs13kqpf.PNG LOL---2.52" right on top of Pete's head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 IF ole Pony O was around, he is gonna see nice enhancement on the E Slope I think MPM if we really want to look at it will be a bit too far east to get in the meat of that E slope enhancement....he is not that far from 1-91 (I think like 8 miles west of greenfield/I 91) Yeah--I'm in the 1.5" color. Pete gets rocked on that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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