jamesnichols89 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wow, RGEM has jackpot the whole eastern MA coastline and as far west as Springfield, MA in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Man oh man if the RGEM is right I mean just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 NAM has been indicating the potential for the coastal low once it gets south of the benchmark to come up close to the benchmark once again as it passes to the southeast. Now the 18z NAM run backed off the closing off of the H5 trough so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And thats straight up 10-1 for you qpf queens who are nervous about not getting that extra 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nice little finger out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Would be nice but tossed. This is looking more and more meso enhancement dependent. High terrain and CF areas will do well. There's just not enough synoptic forcing for my area. I'm leaning under the GYX totals...more like 8-10". Yeah, I hear that. I do like the ESE flow up here, albeit light, that can usually help along the east slope of the Spine. I was never on the huge storm train, just a nice 2-4"/3-5" for a couple days up here. I'm sort of with you, and Tip in a way that the synoptic forcing seems so weak to produce these prolific widespread totals when you see these forecast maps with 2/3rds of New England in 12"+ like from the media. Could be a lot more spot totals of 12"+ amid a more general 4-10" totals. Ratios will be the kicker though. Half inch of QPF that produces 13" of snow would certainly help everyone's cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This system now has huge bust potential with those inflated snow totals. If it happens ... awesome, and we'll peer back at the data in hindsight and it will be all fun to pick it apart and put it back to together...etc. But it's easier to fail 18" than it is to achieve that... much less 24", both of which strain climatology. Try really hard to come down out of the psychotropic head rush that's fevered the forum since last night, and think about this in a conservative approach. Those snow totals ...gosh, just estimating they must be on the order of +3 SD, and would be the third time inside of 2-weeks at that! I guess to be honest, that ending statement means less to me. Usually when I hear others defend a position with that sort of reasoning, I immediately think, "...Until it happens; you can't limit the possibility just because it hasn't happened before in a previous sample set..." There were some spectacular winters in the 1800's... 1717, wasn't that the year of the big snow and the 5' snow pack? I also saw a 15' snow pack in interior NS in photographs taken as recently as 2001 or so. Maybe this is one of those years. Just not sure this is one of those storms... The trough is weak... The low deepens but swings wide right on all the guidance I have seen. All we have is overrunning, super-imposed on some OE enhancement. Perhaps those two collocated events will push totals up; and of course, LE does huge totals too, so borrowing from other knowledge/experiences ... I'm not sure I see objectively why 12-18" occurs all the way up Rt 2 west of 495. I dunno, I'm preparing for the under at this point, and will be pleasantly surprised if more materializes. Well, we shall see. But lets keep in mind that that possibility might play out that it ends very much like the NYC scenario during the "blizzard" two weeks ago. We should temper our expectations, particularly as it affects human freedom. If one is inclined to believe that 2 feet might fall within a particular area, and that one suggests freedom-inhibiting proposals vis-a-vis road closures, curfews, and so forth, it is better to err on human freedom, with the assumption that the individual is talented with self-preservation upon HIS empirical experience; no freedom should be denied based on a "forecast." The often arrogance of newscasters necessarily sullies the right of the individual to make his own choices. The FACT that we rely so much on "others" to guide our actions is a direct relation to ho much of our own freedom we decide to hand them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The op euro did that as well. Qpf axis narrowed. I think that's what'll happen in the end. The real heavy stuff will be more localized than the models are showing now. Take a line from ART to BOS and there ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 we can only hope! http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Now THAT's a map. Nice little finger out this way Sometimes it nice to get the finger, isnt' it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And thats straight up 10-1 for you qpf queens who are nervous about not getting that extra 2 inches What's the point of a 10:1 snow map? Just take QPF and move the decimal, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So close for down here. But I think it stops just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well, we shall see. But lets keep in mind that that possibility might play out that it ends very much like the NYC scenario during the "blizzard" two weeks ago. We should temper our expectations, particularly as it affects human freedom. If one is inclined to believe that 2 feet might fall within a particular area, and that one suggests freedom-inhibiting proposals vis-a-vis road closures, curfews, and so forth, it is better to err on human freedom, with the assumption that the individual is talented with self-preservation upon HIS empirical experience; no freedom should be denied based on a "forecast." The often arrogance of newscasters necessarily sullies the right of the individual to make his own choices. The FACT that we rely so much on "others" to guide our actions is a direct relation to ho much of our own freedom we decide to hand them. Is this satire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Is this satire? Of course. I'm stuck in a physics/philosophy symposium at NYU tonight. And not getting anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Just did a core sample 20 inches depth 3.52" w/e yea rake your roofs 6" will be locked up by end of feb. Gonna be a great spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well, we shall see. But lets keep in mind that that possibility might play out that it ends very much like the NYC scenario during the "blizzard" two weeks ago. We should temper our expectations, particularly as it affects human freedom. If one is inclined to believe that 2 feet might fall within a particular area, and that one suggests freedom-inhibiting proposals vis-a-vis road closures, curfews, and so forth, it is better to err on human freedom, with the assumption that the individual is talented with self-preservation upon HIS empirical experience; no freedom should be denied based on a "forecast." The often arrogance of newscasters necessarily sullies the right of the individual to make his own choices. The FACT that we rely so much on "others" to guide our actions is a direct relation to ho much of our own freedom we decide to hand them. But for NYC, only Euro was showing a hit. We were already prepared for the bust here. We weren't as excited as you guys are. But this storm does have Major bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Didn't see the latest from box posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Would be nice but tossed. This is looking more and more meso enhancement dependent. High terrain and CF areas will do well. There's just not enough synoptic forcing for my area. I'm leaning under the GYX totals...more like 8-10".Yeah, I don't get GYX totals. I'm thinking 6-9" up here, not 12-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think the bust potential is for this storm to come southward more than anticipated, not northward. So those 18-24" amounts could actually end up in the BOS area with the south shore seeing 6-12" instead of 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think the bust potential is for this storm to come southward more than anticipated, not northward. So those 18-24" amounts could actually end up in the BOS area with the south shore seeing 6-12" instead of 3-6" I honestly think the the JP will be around and south of BOS. This is trending South. But its weather so anything could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think the bust potential is for this storm to come southward more than anticipated, not northward. So those 18-24" amounts could actually end up in the BOS area with the south shore seeing 6-12" instead of 3-6" I think you needs to look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I honestly think the the JP will be around and south of BOS. This is trending South. But its weather so anything could happen That's what I am thinking, plus OE Snows look like a potential for Tuesday over Eastern half of Cape Cod, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think you needs to look again. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Same here as Tolland. Cool.Actually no. But enjoy 8-12. I'll enjoy 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Why? BOS already is 18-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Man, there is going to be a bog gradient over this town. N Reading ftw, Billerica ftl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Actually no. But enjoy 8-12. I'll enjoy 12-18 There was a time on Eastern when we all were celebrating and having fun at the prospects of snowstorms, riding busses, having sermons, tossing them high and wide, don"t understand the competition aspect. Whats great this year is however caution flags keep getting picked up and Debbies are in the closet with their dolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 But for NYC, only Euro was showing a hit. We were already prepared for the bust here. We weren't as excited as you guys are. But this storm does have Major bust potential. Yes, it's either meaningless jibberish or it's true by definition. But what we get is somewhere in between. And because of that, we need to relax and follow experience as it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS pounds Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 BOS already is 18-24. Oh yeah, I forgot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS pounds Boston.how about here? I have a bad feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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