GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How hard is it for PHL to get [significant] snow in a -PNA/+AO/+NAO environment? I'm curious what the largest snowfall is in an environment like that. I know PDII was during a +NAO phase, but what were the other phases at that time? PDII was an archimbault event i believe (switch from negative to positive phase where often times a big snow can occur). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree with this but the models have shown this before and at the Airport winds up getting less than an inch go just 13 miles west where I am at and we are the ones that get your 2-3".. hence... Media has like 7" total on the year and the Airport is struggling to get to 3" .... That 7-13 miles has made a huge difference just shows you how bad its been from the City South and East for this Winter... clearly a snow drought. yeah, sometimes it does work the other way, i think the airport did better than most other locations last year. This year with the lack of blocking the NW areas are going to d a little better. With that being said, im still pretty confident that PHL gets over an inch with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For now I'm gonna leave a rather large range of 2-6 for back home and then try to narrow that a bit tomorrow. Timing that changeover is a nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For now I'm gonna leave a rather large range of 2-6 for back home and then try to narrow that a bit tomorrow. Timing that changeover is a nailbiter. You're more ambitious than me. I say 1-3 which will be a pain to shovel. Similar to what I shoveled last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 With the GFS showing close to 2 inches of prep. and most storm drains blocked, would;t be surprised to see a flood watch soon south of Lambertville. Not sure, the snow at PHL is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Final call. Philly airport - 3 inches Plymouth Meeting - 5 inches Quakertown - 7 inches Allentown - 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Final call. Philly airport - 3 inches Plymouth Meeting - 5 inches Quakertown - 7 inches Allentown - 8 inches You are issuing a final call on Saturday afternoon? For a sunday into Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are issuing a final call on Saturday afternoon? For a sunday into Monday storm? Yes. I am not going screw around with all this non sense. Nothing matters if I fail. I don't have to report to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes. I am not going screw around with all this non sense. Nothing matters if I fail. I don't have to report to anyone. then maybe consider not making calls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure, the snow at PHL is gone. what snow lol, there was never enough here to be a flooding issue to begin with. i actually got more snow from the squalls yesterday than the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Final call. Philly airport - 3 inches Plymouth Meeting - 5 inches Quakertown - 7 inches Allentown - 8 inches even though i agree it is too early to make a final call, i actually think this will end up being a decent, maybe a touch high at quakertown and ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like a WSW went up for Upper Bucks/Western Mont County: Areas Affected:Upper Bucks - Western Montgomery Updated: Sat 2:58 pm Urgency: Future Expires: Mon 1:00 pm Severity: Moderate Details: ...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAYAFTERNOON.* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW, SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW, AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF ANINCH OF ICE POSSIBLE.* TIMING... SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING ANDSHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTOMONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET ANDSOME FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNINGCOMMUTE.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,THEN DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 what snow lol, there was never enough here to be a flooding issue to begin with. i actually got more snow from the squalls yesterday than the storm Enough here to cause problems. Never really mentioned down to Philly, but whatever. What is left - snow, sleet, rain ponding will freeze like a brick shortly after the storm passes. So if you don't clean up the slop, it'll be there a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is pretty much worst case scenario for any real snowfall for a lot of the reason, ice may be a big problem the farther you go N and W. With the WAA being so weak, we lose the front end thump and it warms up by the time the real precip arises. At this point, i think it is fair to say trends are not in our favor for a significant snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nam is total different storm now, something is a miss. i put nam on ignore mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nam is total different storm now, something is a miss. i put nam on ignore mode I'm not sure i agree completely the NAM has some support in terms of the synoptics and the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is unpossible No CAD? From our hires guidance? Even the cras is showing the CAD signature. While not strong its there. The Nam has the opposite and shows nothing of the sort. Chances are it is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is unpossible No CAD? From our hires guidance? Even the cras is showing the CAD signature. While not strong its there. The Nam has the opposite and shows nothing of the sort. Chances are it is wrong. it is the delay in the onset of the precip that is lessening the CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Crippling ice for us probably and power out just in time for -3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Crippling ice for us probably and power out just in time for -3F That would be extremely bad. I think we all had better hope for some good surface warming to prevent that from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mt Holly new snowmap out is slicing totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mt Holly new snowmap out is slicing totals i dropped a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i dropped a lot to be expected is there any model out there showing more than an inch or so for PHL at this point? maybe the Euro, barely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 it is the delay in the onset of the precip that is lessening the CAD signature.Yup, you can't discount the nam just because you don't like its solution. It's definitely possible and it has nailed this storm. May be ahead of the game again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yup, you can't discount the nam just because you don't like its solution. It's definitely possible and it has nailed this storm. May be ahead of the game again. It hasn't nailed anything til it happens. That said, the Euro seems to again be the last to see the light. If this storm is like last one, we can expect a random couple runs of the NAM to have some wacky southward cold push tomorrow and then suddenly reverse back to warm as the storm begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 wow guys, check out 39 hours on the GFS. 850 temps are colder than 10m's. In this type of setup, you'd expect the opposite. precip types should be interesting...for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 upper montco WSWatch lower montco not even a WWA up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 upper montco WSW lower montco not even a WWA up? I think a WWA up will go up for lower montco soon enough, probably everywhere but PHL south (maybe even the city) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS a little better if you want the front end thump snow although it gets toasty as the storm progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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