Yeoman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 it's gotta be a bit off but still. cities further north could learn a lot about busts from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've been complaining about the Euro and saying it can be a real pos too it's living on old times when the gfs and other models were much worse and I, like most humans living on the surface of this planet, do not care about 500mb scores, rather about the weather on this earth As I'm sure you've read in my excessive 17k posts on amwx, I rarely bash the gfs. Heck, i loved the old gfs because I understood it. It pissed me off with the big Feb storm last year but it's quite useful regardless. The euro is amp happy at times but tough to bet against when it doesn't jump around like other guidance. The last 2 days and tomorrow are gonna be bad ones for euro huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As I'm sure you've read in my excessive 17k posts on amwx, I rarely bash the gfs. Heck, i loved the old gfs because I understood it. It pissed me off with the big Feb storm last year but it's quite useful regardless. The euro is amp happy at times but tough to bet against when it doesn't jump around like other guidance. The last 2 days and tomorrow are gonna be bad ones for euro huggers. yes...we have to wait for verification, but at this point we know the euro was too far west. Count me among the euro huggers when it comes to coastals...I gave the GFS no consideration...maybe xbox is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 28, big fat fluffies still falling....looks to be shutting off in bit per radar, but who knows. could still pick up a bit more as the band continues to sink south slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wesleyhtswx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Weather Channel explanation for the NYC/NJ bust over the last couple of hours has been to throw the Euro under the bus. Very Washingtonian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Miller Bs are risky to go big on even for the more favored Phil-NYC corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Weather Channel explanation for the NYC/NJ bust over the last couple of hours has been to throw the Euro under the bus. Very Washingtonian. pretty simple, there is no wx information on TWC that is superior to that provided on this Board...PERIOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wesleyhtswx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Miller Bs are risky to go big on even for the more favored Phil-NYC corridor True, although I can think of at least 3 Miller Bs that nailed NYC pretty well in recent memory: December 30? 2000, January 22? 2005, and Dec 26-27, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It is a pretty storm though it seems a bit off the way it looks -- almost like it wants to be double barreled or something. maybe just random as it comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 yes...we have to wait for verification, but at this point we know the euro was too far west. Count me among the euro huggers when it comes to coastals...I gave the GFS no consideration...maybe xbox is better It probably just dangled a carrot...lol If anything, it's just a reminder to blend all guidance and think big picture. No model is even close to perfect. The trend today was obvious Even with the euro. It was still big but still east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Cashing in pretty well here in Fairfax County (W Springfield area)... will go measure in a few... decent banding still going strong for us per radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikes923 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some more juicy stuff pulsing in from above the Carroll county border filing its way down it seems It doesn't want to quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I may start just blending Euro/GFS forecasts twice a day for a number of cities and test it against all the fancy methods and short range models and stuff. Perhaps a little water vapor loop for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It is a pretty storm though it seems a bit off the way it looks -- almost like it wants to be double barreled or something. maybe just random as it comes together. 0Z GFS spit out .33" for BOS from 7PM-1AM http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBOS as of midnight, .10" has fallen http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html crazy models are for kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 just measured 2 on the deck, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit higher amounts in the close vicinity. didn't see the misty moon through the clouds, was kind of bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 26, -SN continues, 1.25" storm total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 weird the board won't let me post my thoughts about the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just measured under 3 inches... that make sense for those who live around Fairfax County? I see needbiggerboat has 2 in Centerville... so I think my ob makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Still coming down in Rockville. Closing in on 19 hours of precip falling. My expectations were surpassed hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Up to a little over 1 inch here. HRRR says there will be some more light snow around 6 am, with some support from the GFS / RGEM. GFS did well on this storm. The idea of going with the Euro and NAM when they agree did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1221 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-271330-/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-150127T1500Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG1221 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES IN EASTERN LOUDOUN AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1221 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 MDZ004>006-011-503>508-VAZ505-506-271330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-150127T1500Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON... REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE... GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA... ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...PURCELLVILLE... LEESBURG...ASHBURN 1221 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This band just seems to keep on redeveloping... pretty nice out, took a quick walk. Closing in on 3"... might be able to get 4-5 depending on how long that band stays around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's snowing again! I just looked out and its STILL coming down. There is this north south stripe of blue/green that is pummeling the east part of Prince William County! I have over an inch now! Reflectivities are HIGH from the lawns! I can't believe this! I am still getting snow, right when I thought it was all over! WOOOT! WOOOT! I love this storm with all my heart. It just does not want to stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 through midnight DCA - 0.5" IAD - 1.7" BWI - 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wow, Boat, you got more than me. I had less than an inch when i last measured around 11:15pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1221 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-271330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-150127T1500Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES- ST. MARYS-CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG 1221 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES IN EASTERN LOUDOUN AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. Are they expecting more wrap around? Western Fairfax and Loudoun looks done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Are they expecting more wrap around? Western Fairfax and Loudoun looks done. Looking at radar, def for the eastern parts of FFX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It is hard to measure because of the phases and drifting 2pm - 0.3" of garbage which melted 7pm - 0.4" sn/sleet in heavy band which then flash froze into a rock 12:30 - 0.6" of sweepable powder... Hard to get a storm total just from sticking a ruler in the ground. I have 6"+ drifts...which are wimpy, but it is damn windy out... ETA - I swept at 12:30 so I can get a decent measurement next time I go out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like the band that is entering N Montgomery/N Howard has its sights set on DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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