Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I can't see an app runner, with this set up...I don't post much but this just doesn't look right to me that low should be in central GA with dual 1032 H's in SD and just north of NY i don't see the 1027 H off the coast winning this battle I might be clueless but that's my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The pattern is really good...I'm gonna go ahead and say we won't have a 984mb low over Scranton next Monday I def admit I thought those H's in Canada wouldn't let the GFS bring an Apps runner, but I guess I was wrong. Was there just not enough confluence and too much SE Ridge for this run? ETA: I see Bob answered it already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm sticking to extrapolating the NAM runs until I see something better from the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm sticking to extrapolating the NAM runs until I see something better from the gfs. Extrapolating the NAM can lead to nothing but success every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 i also recall wanting a ridge over Boise ID i can def see it getting there with the H off the Pac coast....I see this run as a positive for DC on north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Extrapolating the NAM can lead to nothing but success every time. correct, if not actually, then virtually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How does a 1036 high at hour 120 not drive a wedge into the Carolinas at this time of the year. I think the pattern supports a winter storm. Not to mention look at the crazy qpf total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How does a 1036 high at hour 120 not drive a wedge into the Carolinas at this time of the year. I think the pattern supports a winter storm. Not to mention look at the crazy qpf total. Boston thumps and then goes to 2"+ rain winter would never do that to Boston, so it must be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How does a 1036 high at hour 120 not drive a wedge into the Carolinas at this time of the year. I think the pattern supports a winter storm. Not to mention look at the crazy qpf total. I agree. The last 2 runs were a step in the right direction. Even with an unfavorable track, 1030+ hp is se Canada is a cad signal. A strong storm like the gfs shows can definitely go west with lack of confluence in front of it. But a weaker storm would likely slide underneath. A trend towards losing the mw low has started. It's not a bad run even though the solution sucks. I feel better than I did with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I agree. The last 2 runs were a step in the right direction. Even with an unfavorable track, 1030+ hp is se Canada is a cad signal. A strong storm like the gfs shows can definitely go west with lack of confluence in front of it. But a weaker storm would likely slide underneath. A trend towards losing the mw low has started. It's not a bad run even though the solution sucks. I feel better than I did with the 12z suite. we have been uncharacteristically wet for a weak NINO/+nada BWI has had above normal precip every month since October, though NOV was barely AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow... storms Monday afternoon with that 980s low in W PA? spring thread baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A little improvement in the ridge in the west and we have a very big storm on our hands. We haven't seen this Greenland block setup all winter, and I'm still not convinced this verifies as an app runner. I could see a miller B to Tenn transfer situation with this pattern, but that high over east canada is becoming a more consistent feature from run to run. I'm convinced we are still in the game for a miller B snow to rain to dry slot, or a hybrid or miller A that gives us all snow. The GFS looks mighty different with the vortex in southeast canada run to run, so it seems it's still trying to resolve the positioning and intensity of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 00z GGEM follows what the 00z GFS does with the Sunday-Monday storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I agree. The last 2 runs were a step in the right direction. Even with an unfavorable track, 1030+ hp is se Canada is a cad signal. A strong storm like the gfs shows can definitely go west with lack of confluence in front of it. But a weaker storm would likely slide underneath. A trend towards losing the mw low has started. It's not a bad run even though the solution sucks. I feel better than I did with the 12z suite. 2/25/07 had a much weaker high I believe and that turned into a great front end thump. Another example is 1/17/08 which was pretty good on the front end. That storm had a weaker high also. Both storms were expected to be rain 3 days out. Hopefully the high will consistently show up. A few days ago 2/13/03 was showing up on the Day 8 and day11 super ensembles. Seeing that high on tonight's run brought back good memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 00z GGEM follows what the 00z GFS does with the Sunday-Monday storm system then I'm not looking at it and will pretend it shows otherwise....in a corner if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The high is not going to give it up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The high is not going to give it up like that. That's what Hitler said of Paulus in Stalingrad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good kite flying... if you can hang onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The high is not going to give it up like that. That's what Hitler said of Paulus in Stalingrad... Unfortunately Mitch someone in your house tells you the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Unfortunately Mitch someone in your house tells you the same thing. dude, nobody talks to me in my house, that's why I'm here posting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 we need the 18z to run at 6z, 12z, and 0z i heard someone say 18z was 2nd most accurate run of gfs besides 12z due to level of data fed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 here is my take on what's going on as a lurker....at hour 108 low south of AK is breaking the +PNA which in turn allow the se ridge to gather strength so by 120 even with dual H in se Canada the ridge off atlantic is dominate....need a +PNA for this one again just a lurker still learning keep the bashing to a minimum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 and don't anyone get excited about what comes after this on the gfs around 222 hrs.....that's what a Miller B looks like on an operational model from 9-10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think the nino not getting stronger is what is making it very difficult. There's been no shortage of storms but nothing to lock in the cold. If the nino entered the low end moderate range things would be much better. Plenty time left for this storm to improve it just seems like it always an uphill climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm just chasing respectable totals at this pt. I'll wait to see this stretch but it's definitely feeling like even a low end warning level event imby might be tough. But I am just a pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think the nino not getting stronger is what is making it very difficult. There's been no shortage of storms but nothing to lock in the cold. If the nino entered the low end moderate range things would be much better. Plenty time left for th Lis storm to improve it just seems like it always an uphill climb. The KU was quite like jan 2005. Maybe not a classified Nino but plenty of Nino characteristics this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 we'll have a -NAO, a 50-50, a +PNA, a -EPO, a split flow...i realize we have a ridge off the east coast, and the storm running out ahead of the front...but I don't give a crap....Mind over matter....we're getting a storm...that's all there is to it....I've had enough of this bull-****.....were getting a snowstorm Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 we'll have a -NAO, a 50-50, a +PNA, a -EPO, a split flow...i realize we have a ridge off the east coast, and the storm running out ahead of the front...but I don't give a crap....Mind over matter....we're getting a storm...that's all there is to it....I've had enough of this bull-****.....were getting a snowstorm Monday.... hour 108 is the +pna breaking down? on the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'd probably bet it's not as strong and west and that could def make it interesting. But that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 hour 108 is the +pna breaking down? on the gem looks to me like it is going to spike this week in advance of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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