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Wentzadelphia

1/27 Winter Storm - Round 3 - Discussion Thread

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UKMET is about a half inch liquid in TTN. I think 12Z had about double that.

Just about time to pack it in. I'll take my 6" and sigh as NE gets crushed like with most Miller Bs. :(

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Let us see the EURO and trends tomorrow. It would be a shame for this to go down to a 4-6" event here. Really would be surprising to see the Euro so far off.

If the Euro backs off tonight, I think we can wrap this up tonight.  If it holds, there's still small hope.

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I'll be selling popcorn at the Brooklyn Bridge for the show if the ECM backs off...one of you other guys can take care of the Philly area.

 

***Weenie Suicide Warning now current. Please turn to AmericanWx for further information on #DeflatedWeenieGate2015.***

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If the past is any indicator in terms of model disagreements, I'd bet the Euro comes in a tick east .....just enough to screw those of us on the fence in Eastern PA while leaving those in the NYC subforum quite happy.    

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Let us see the EURO and trends tomorrow. It would be a shame for this to go down to a 4-6" event here. Really would be surprising to see the Euro so far off.

I would bet totals are cut by 60 percent region wide. Only staying up to put myself out of the misery. Have to get up at 530 for work too.

In a way I am glad. No more of the king euro non sense. Gfs blows etc.

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If the past is any indicator in terms of model disagreements, I'd bet the Euro comes in a tick east .....just enough to screw those of us on the fence in Eastern PA while leaving those in the NYC subforum quite happy.    

 

The Euro rarely makes big jumps, especially inside 48 hours, it probably will tick east at best, don't be surprised though if it remains nearly unchanged, the other models are not exactly worlds different from it at the upper levels, we're talking about a small difference here being 6 inches vs 20

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The Euro rarely makes big jumps, especially inside 48 hours, it probably will tick east at best, don't be surprised though if it remains nearly unchanged, the other models are not exactly worlds different from it at the upper levels, we're talking about a small difference here being 6 inches vs 20

 

Thanks for the reality check. My optimism has taken a beating tonight but I'm hanging in there.

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Let us see the EURO and trends tomorrow. It would be a shame for this to go down to a 4-6" event here. Really would be surprising to see the Euro so far off.

 

If you think about it 4-6" is still a hit. Yeah, one always thinks "would of" "could of" but if originally the forecast was 2-4" and ended up w/4-6":....good times! If we totally get shafted w/1-2"...yeah, that sucks.

 

If the Euro backs off tonight, I think we can wrap this up tonight.  If it holds, there's still small hope.

 

That's a 75-80% chance in my mind right now...hopefully hold but just a little east I could handle. A total swing would be killer...

 

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The Euro rarely makes big jumps, especially inside 48 hours, it probably will tick east at best, don't be surprised though if it remains nearly unchanged, the other models are not exactly worlds different from it at the upper levels, we're talking about a small difference here being 6 inches vs 20

Makes sense .... I might as well stay up and wait for it (and then be angry at myself for doing so in the morning).    It comes out at 12:45 right?   I have to say it would be entertaining if the Euro surprised all of us with something more wrapped up and WEST just to mix things up.   ;-)     

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Really?..only "small hope" if it holds...

wouldn't that four run consistency give it much more "weight" than the other less stable model outputs over the past 36 hours?

 

If it holds I'd be happy as pigs in shiet....

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Really?..only "small hope" if it holds...

wouldn't that four run consistency give it much more "weight" than the other less stable model outputs over the past 36 hours?

Its the EC against the world.  That can't be ignored, not this close.

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Its the EC against the world. That can't be ignored, not this close.

True though sometimes last minute surprises happen with storms like this. If Euro does go east though then definitely strong possibility of a bust.

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True though sometimes last minute surprises happen with storms like this......

This^

Seems that "Surprises" (both good and bad) are the norm for most any type of storm (any season) for us in the Philly area...

happens a lot with summer rains but those "surprises" are less noticeable to most folks due to the "less visible" nature of rain accumulations and the lesser impact (travel etc) that most rainstorms have (i.e Driving during/after an inch of rain much different than during/after a foot of snow).

No doubt...in the end, this storm will surprise (be it good or bad)!!

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I'll be selling popcorn at the Brooklyn Bridge for the show if the ECM backs off...one of you other guys can take care of the Philly area.

 

***Weenie Suicide Warning now current. Please turn to AmericanWx for further information on #DeflatedWeenieGate2015.***

Sorry folks, no refunds...

 

My amateur forecast of "I hate those f***ers" still stands.

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12-18" for Philly

9-12" N&W burbs

6-9" Berks and Lehigh

 

so cutback but still a good SECS/MECS for some

Yeah I thought it would cutback but my hope was that the Euro rarely has huge shifts in this range. Maybe models will converge tomorrow on something good but not historic here?

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