WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just remember that NAM is a piece of garbage. At least we have the Euro on this which is good. But the NAM catching up on this so quickly makes me nervous--it could be a signal that the Euro (the best model) would drop it. If the Euro sees the NAM doing this, it will want NO part of this storm!!....lol. Guilt by association. WX/PT Lol not unless it was truly meant to be I guess. Remember the "ole EE rule"? Time shall tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would think NENJ from Middlesex County on north would get around 6-10" of snow give or take a couple of inches depending on ratios which I would think would be at least 10:1 and probably higher, the NAM is showing 0.50"-0.75" of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 and it has support from the best model on planet earth...both those models show a good snowstorm for nyc and a blizzard for pretty much all of Li and sne... The Euro went overboard with this current system for a couple of runs too by developing a huge CCB and a near blizzard from Philly on northeast. It has its flaws too. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility but it just seems a stretch to me that NYC would see a significant event given the pattern (that means I wouldn't disagree with a few inches maybe). The NAO and AO still aren't very favorable and the pattern is progressive. Eastern New England and maybe eastern LI are a different story because the system has a lot of energy and the negative tilt means it should go to town somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 1st place I would want to be is in SNE but Long Island is a close 2 nd . Right now this gets the city and Eastern third of NJ. . All that is needed is this get tugged 50 miles west off the Delmarva There is some strong VV all the back to state college at hour 66 and 72 so we just need another tick west and its gets most of us. So yes only 2 models see it. But 1 happens to be the euro. Lets wait for a little more continuity and the risk is always wide right as it could always deepen 50 miles east and then it crushes New England. Both are on the table. I am leaning west. Why wouldn't I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I doubt it could shift more than 50 miles SW. It's definitely more of an eastern storm but again 50 miles further west and NYC has an easy MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I doubt it could shift more than 50 miles SW. It's definitely more of an eastern storm but again 50 miles further west and NYC has an easy MECS. Why would u doubt it.. It's shift almost 150 miles in a day so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just remember that NAM is a piece of garbage. At least we have the Euro on this which is good. But the NAM catching up on this so quickly makes me nervous--it could be a signal that the Euro (the best model) would drop it. If the Euro sees the NAM doing this, it will want NO part of this storm!!....lol. Guilt by association. WX/PT Would like to see model on this solution tomorrow. Before buying it. Do you think the vortex over lifting out of SE Canada prior is forcing amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would think NENJ from Middlesex County on north would get around 6-10" of snow give or take a couple of inches depending on ratios which I would think would be at least 10:1 and probably higher, the NAM is showing 0.50"-0.75" of precipitation. Verbatim, NAM the garbage model is showing a 6-10" storm for ne NJ and NYC, at least a 10-16" storm for Long Island with the higher number in that range out east, the lower numbers western LI. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 1st place I would want to be is in SNE but Long Island is a close 2 nd . Right now this gets the city and Eastern third of NJ. . All that is needed is this get tugged 50 miles west off the Delmarva There is some strong VV all the back to state college at hour 66 and 72 so we just need another tick west and its gets most of us. So yes only 2 models see it. But 1 happens to be the euro. Lets wait for a little more continuity and the risk is always wide right as it could always deepen 50 miles east and then it crushes New England. Both are on the table. I am leaning west. Why wouldn't I Working in Eastern CT all week. Seems like a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Gfs comes out very soon. It doesn't have to match the Nam or Euro but a step in their direction would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here's hoping the trend west continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREF Plume range is 0-17.6 for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Why would u doubt it.. It's shift almost 150 miles in a day so far lol Especially given the most recent event - just to give an idea, this looked a 1-3" deal back here for days and we wound up with almost 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Gfs comes out very soon. It doesn't have to match the Nam or Euro but a step in their direction would be nice. I wouldn't trust the GFS if it showed the same thing for a week straight, just my opinion lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I wouldn't trust the GFS if it showed the same thing for a week straight, just my opinion lol I agree but I'll take any agreement from other models. DT is also interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 i think the main thing is all the models have started digging the shortwave and slowing it down allowing for the other part to catch up to it...the rgem looks like it would be good also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 phil882 mentioned last night that the 00z Euro was the first model run that was able to sample the shortwave after it made landfall in British Columbia and thought that might be partly responsible for the dramatic shift west. Hopefully it continues. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45438-model-discussion-for-late-january-into-february/?p=3285906 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The RGEM looks identical to the NAM & EURO at similar time frame. Get that initial shortwave to dig and give itself time for the trailing energy to phase in and boom you have a HECS for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I haven't looked into this event at all, until now, as the coastal storm impacting us today has huge implications on what the Monday event will do. With the outcome of this current storm pretty much finally set in stone, it's very promising to see the models coming back west with this. With that said, we still have to be cautious. I think model runs through the end of today will be critical, as this storm evolves into our new 50/50 low. The tendency so far has been to weaken it slightly and shift it ever so slightly north: yesterday's 12z GFS, 952 mb low ~ 200 miles south of Greenland to today's 6z GFS 956 mb low 100 miles south of Greenland. This has reduced the amount of downstream blocking (confluent flow) enough such that we are now seeing a track that is much closer to the coast around our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Till I see details to contrary I will say let's be a tad careful. March 5 just sayin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It helps todays system is moving out faster than previously shown otherwise our potential would've likely been shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Working in Eastern CT all week. Seems like a good place to be. Great spot too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Great spot too If anyone wants to do a little blackjack at foxwoods lemme know. Staying across the street at the Hilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just remember that NAM is a piece of garbage. At least we have the Euro on this which is good. But the NAM catching up on this so quickly makes me nervous--it could be a signal that the Euro (the best model) would drop it. If the Euro sees the NAM doing this, it will want NO part of this storm!!....lol. Guilt by association. WX/PT I would lean in the direction right now that its mostly an ERN LI and SNE event, the NAM's typical placement of features beyond 60 hours would suggest its too far W with this. I won't buy whatever the GFS shows because its been so bad, it probably will show a miss even for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ive stayed there before its nice the only thing i didnt like is you have to pay for breakfast but dunkin donuts is right across the street lol If anyone wants to do a little blackjack at foxwoods lemme know. Staying across the street at the Hilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I would lean in the direction right now that its mostly an ERN LI and SNE event, the NAM's typical placement of features beyond 60 hours would suggest its too far W with this. I won't buy whatever the GFS shows because its been so bad, it probably will show a miss even for SNE. meh with all do respect i dont really believe the whole NAM is always too far west argument for a second...if anything with this storm that just happened it was too far east 60 hours out or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone got GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Out to 30 500s look to be on par with NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone got GFS? per new england forum significant improments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SO let me guess this straight ... the NAM which on previous run had the main snow over MD DC BWI has turned strongly to the euro but its piece of garbage ? Verbatim, NAM the garbage model is showing a 6-10" storm for ne NJ and NYC, at least a 10-16" storm for Long Island with the higher number in that range out east, the lower numbers western LI. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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