Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Had to look up CYUL. Turns out -- get this folks -- that Montreal has an airport. Wild times we live in, letting the Quebecois take flight. Anyhow, you're right. It isn't a classic setup for treats. you love bananas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sounds good to me. The strange thing is that I suddenly find myself hopeful for the Saturday system not to wiggle too much... not because I expect it to deliver, but moreso because if that evolution is what sets the groundwork for storm two, you could argue that too great a deviation for Saturday from what's currently projected could then ripple forth to shake up Tuesday. Saturday doesn't have to thread the needle, but I want the thread and the needle at least having some drinks, getting to know each other, hand on thigh. I would sacrifice Saturday if it could cement the next storm into being. But, like you said, it's evolution is based on what #1 does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 you love bananas What can I say? A high banana brings me to my knees. Seriously, though, the banana high has often been a great piece of the puzzle to deliver a good storm for many.... if that's what we're looking at early next week, I would feel very good about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I would sacrifice Saturday if it could cement the next storm into being. But, like you said, it's evolution is based on what #1 does Me thinks a lot more are going to like next weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Top 500 height analog from the CIPS is the Jan. 27-28, 2011 blizzard for this weekend. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Did not see the 12z GFS Ensm. posted so here they are for the 1st potential storm this weekend. Some are suppressed and some are a good hit. 108h 114h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow. Didn't that storm tuck? I'm not sure if that would be an ideal track for down here, since the airmass is marginal to begin with. Your area would probably be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Didn't that storm tuck? I'm not sure if that would be an ideal track for down here, since the airmass is marginal to begin with. Your area would probably be fine though. I think it went over the cape, but it was very compact, so the normal thermal profile didn't apply. I wouldn't read that much into analogs, at this point. Just interpret it as plowable potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not impressed with either one currently. Too many things can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 EC ensembles really amped up. 850 0C already near TOL-GHG at hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like in between ACK and BM. Temps cool..almost a rain to snow for some. That's an option with a crappy airmass and retreating high as we have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensemble is looking slightly west of the benchmark and warmer than the operational, probably a very nice hit for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Big hit for I95 west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensemble is looking slightly west of the benchmark and warmer than the operational, probably a very nice hit for the interior Pretty good as is verbatim. Even maybe BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Didn't that storm tuck? I'm not sure if that would be an ideal track for down here, since the airmass is marginal to begin with. Your area would probably be fine though. Details 4 U: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Jan-11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensembles like the 2nd storm too...obviously a colder look as well with a more favorable synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensemble is looking slightly west of the benchmark and warmer than the operational, probably a very nice hit for the interior Saturday threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Pretty strong signal day 7 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Pretty strong signal day 7 too. What's the "agreement"? (Strength/spread indicated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Saturday threat? yes. Could be decent for the coast as well on the Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What's the "agreement"? (Strength/spread indicated) It's pretty good looking low on the mean, so I don't think there is much spread there. After, it looks elongated, meaning some members are probably slow and keeping south, while others shoot it northeast. Basically the best thing to take away, is that the signal is pretty darn good this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 In reference to storm 1, QPF doesn't seem to match the strength and intensity of the storm, especially on the Euro control. must have to do with some of the factors that scooter mentioned before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's pretty good looking low on the mean, so I don't think there is much spread there. After, it looks elongated, meaning some members are probably slow and keeping south, while others shoot it northeast. Basically the best thing to take away, is that the signal is pretty darn good this far out. You have pleasured the Zeus. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 QPF doesn't seem to match the strength and intensity of the storm, especially on the Euro control. must have to do with some of the factors that scooter mentioned before. Eh, the QPF on an ensemble mean probably isn't the best metric at this point. I do think the precip shield may not be very far reaching to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 save a horse, public domain by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Is this Saturday? Yeah some tuckies there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's a pretty good clustering for Saturday...that said, lets see it 2-3 runs in a row before getting too bullish on a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Is this Saturday? Yeah some tuckies there. yes +108 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Can we please specify which storm for which ensemble idea? The first or 2nd one is rain to snow for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 in reference to the first storm,the question is gentleman, when will the northwest movement stop on the euro and its ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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