JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Unfortunately the Euro has been pretty consistent with a miss (or just nuisance snows). Don't think this one has much chance of being a solid event. Doesn't mean it won't snow at all though. No, I know. I never believed the GFS's megastorm solutions because it was on its own. It doesn't seem to have a very good handle on it, so I don't trust it now either...unlike the last clipper, when it started showing very good consistency with its track to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I was thinking the same way...nice look. Although the last few years, we seem to get the storms when things look sh***y, like in Feb 2013, and tomorrow's set up has alot to be desired as well...but it just may deliver lol. Feb '13 didn't look shtty, it was actually identified as a period to watch several days prior, but originally was more around the 6th and slowed down by a few days. The issue with Feb '13 was that nobody actually believed it would happen because of all the storms that were modeled to come up the east coast in January only to get more and more progressive as they got closer. That, and the GFS couldn't find its own behind with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Melting away you are you are. Doesn't mean we don't love your insight. Nice to land with snow otg in KPIT tho not much here in the city. We'll have snow otg that you'll wake up to tomorrow. You can sense the frustration in the posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Feb 2013 was seen by the Euro around 5-6 days out and it was on it's own for about 3 full cycles...it was only around 84-96 hours that other guidance started latching on. If you recall, the Euro had several false alarms in that 120-144 hour period that season up to that point, so it was a little bit tough to believe it at first on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Feb 2013 was seen by the Euro around 5-6 days out and it was on it's own for about 3 full cycles...it was only around 84-96 hours that other guidance started latching on. If you recall, the Euro had several false alarms in that 120-144 hour period that season up to that point, so it was a little bit tough to believe it at first on its own. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39089-feb-6th-cdc-has-great-teleconnector-support-cpc-not-sure-what-the-deal-is-there/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I will never believe in the GFS again. Man this winter just doesn't want to produce for the coastal plain, grand total of .4" of snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 At least there is a nice high to the north of the clipper system, we will get quite cold by the end of the week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice onshore wind with the Canadian model, should produce a few snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39089-feb-6th-cdc-has-great-teleconnector-support-cpc-not-sure-what-the-deal-is-there/ I remember that event...we got a half inch of snow. It was overnight on Feb 5-6. But you can see how the Euro was showing the big one by that point because people were discussing the 2/8 threat in that thread before we told them to keep the discussion about the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I remember that event...we got a half inch of snow. It was overnight on Feb 5-6. But you can see how the Euro was showing the big one by that point because people were discussing the 2/8 threat in that thread before we told them to keep the discussion about the 6th. My only point was that Tip started that thread because he recognized a favorable teleconnection/mjo pattern emerging from the period of around the 6th through the 10th. Not that a specific shortwave was identified 10 days out to become a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I will never believe in the GFS again. The consensus usually wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 My only point was that Tip started that thread because he recognized a favorable teleconnection/mjo pattern emerging from the period of around the 6th through the 10th. Not that a specific shortwave was identified 10 days out to become a blizzard. Oh yeah, I'm not arguing that we didn't have a bit of support for something...just that the Euro was on its own for several days. We told people back in mid-January the pattern should be much better over the next several weeks, and nobody believed it because they hadn't gotten any snow in a completely different pattern previously...then got impatient when it didn't snow for the first 10 days of the new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Oh yeah, I'm not arguing that we didn't have a bit of support for something...just that the Euro was on its own for several days. We told people back in mid-January the pattern should be much better over the next several weeks, and nobody believed it because they hadn't gotten any snow in a completely different pattern previously...then got impatient when it didn't snow for the first 10 days of the new pattern. No arguments here. But back to the original point, the pattern leading up to the blizzard did not look particularly sh***y. The idea that the best snow events always seem to happen when the pattern looks unfavorable is an old wives' tale. Good patterns = good chances. Over and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Models seem to keep us plenty cold for the foreseeable future.... even when it milds up in the midwest. Is there a reason for this? Or, am I simple misreading them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 A true Region wide snowstorm a week from today on the 6z and 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 No arguments here. But back to the original point, the pattern leading up to the blizzard did not look particularly sh***y. The idea that the best snow events always seem to happen when the pattern looks unfavorable is an old wives' tale. Good patterns = good chances. Over and out. Yeah it wasn't an awful pattern...Feb 2013 did lack a big WC ridge though, which is a little out of character for a KU event...but we had a really nice southern stream shortwave phasing in to help compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No arguments here. But back to the original point, the pattern leading up to the blizzard did not look particularly sh***y. The idea that the best snow events always seem to happen when the pattern looks unfavorable is an old wives' tale. Good patterns = good chances. Over and out. I believe you misinterpreted my post JC, all I was saying was that we seem to be getting bigger storms, that have less than an ideal look to the set up as of late..that's all. I wasn't saying that all the big storms come with a bad set-up, not at all. And I agree, good patterns do yield good chances. But not always either...last March was a great pattern almost all month long, and Nothing happened at all...it all went south, and way south at that. And the Blizzard of 13 had a -PNA, and a positive NAO, (positive AO?? not sure) and even snowgoose agreed that the set-up wasnt very conducive for a Monster storm like that. But we had other factors take over like the perfect phasing and cold cold air..and we got it. That's the beauty of the weather, sometimes it surprises you when you least expect it. But things do look quite nice for the period you mentioned...let's hope something pops for all of us, it would be fun. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 And the Blizzard of 13 had a -PNA, and a positive NAO, (positive AO?? not sure) and even snowgoose agreed that the set-up wasnt very conducive for a Monster storm like that. But we had other factors take over like the perfect phasing and cold cold air..and we got it. Definitely a -AO, and yes a +NAO but it was in a period of decline. It also had a banana high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Definitely a -AO, and yes a +NAO but it was in a period of decline. It also had a banana high. Like I said, it had the cold air. There were many people/METS who did not think that storm was going to happen...and I'm not meaning on this board. It had things going for it for sure, but it also had things that were working against that were significant as well. But we got it...and GOOD!! What a great storm that was...one of my Favorites. Anyway, on to the next week...hope something pops my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The consensus usually wins out. Oh weird, that thing I said yesterday? Viva la blind squirrel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Oh weird, that thing I said yesterday? Viva la blind squirrel! Sorry, I forgot you already discovered it for mankind yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sorry, I forgot you already discovered it for mankind yesterday. I am the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's awesome watching the south get clippers. You are getting close. I really hope this one breaks right for ya man. Visions of Bryce playing in the snow on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39089-feb-6th-cdc-has-great-teleconnector-support-cpc-not-sure-what-the-deal-is-there/as usual we had been talking about the 6 th in another thread 2 days earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Tremendous ENE flow Mon-Wed of next week..There's going to be some surprise snow showers, squalls especially for Eastern areas..but Monday is probably widespread for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's more Like NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's more Like NNE. Oh back off - it's just 1 letter! We need to identify a solid opportunity within the next 7 days....and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I like how the UKMET model is the only one showing a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Its our saving grace if the models start to show a more NNE or NEward movement to the redeveloping low off the VA coastline or NC coastline that could give us some snow on the way out. Instead of Monday morning snow its Monday evening snow on the SREFs and UKMET models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 ABout the Monday clipper, the models have a lead disturbance at H5 over the Mid Atlantic states that suppresses the flow over the East Coast, this does not allow heights to amplify ahead of the H5 shortwave trough associated with the clipper energy. This is likely the reason for lack of amplification in these later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.