Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We will get a -AO for Feb. It has to turn negative for longer than 2 days eventually...doesn't it. Ask me that same question in early March, when we're staring massive blocking in the face from mid-March through the end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ask me that same question in early March, when we're staring massive blocking in the face from mid-March through the end of April. I'm looking forward to our first heatwave of the year on 3/29-4/3. Guarantee mid-80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ask me that same question in early March, when we're staring massive blocking in the face from mid-March through the end of April. I will enjoy another extended spring Anything to keep the heat away for as long as possible I'm looking forward to our first heatwave of the year on 3/29-4/3. Guarantee mid-80's Ugh.....nooooooooooooooo! I'm not ready yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm looking forward to our first heatwave of the year on 3/29-4/3. Guarantee mid-80's Gonna be tough with a professional grade -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gonna be tough with a professional grade -NAO. Which professional is forecasting that? I'd throw them under the bus with their cold/snowy winter 2014-15 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah, we've been had this winter. I'll read them for fun, but it's going to be hard to give a seasonal forecast much more weight than a coin flip. It seems like nobody can predict blocking and that's what drives our winters usually. The SAI failed this year, the warm AMO (-NAO) is failing this year. I am sure these indicators are never 100% so if you choose to believe in this stuff we are hitting the 10-20% failure this year. Kind of hard to knock the seasonal forecasters for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still some nice hits showing on the superENS, it's can't not snow forever....or can it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Good thing Seattle didn't give up yesterday like some of you are here about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It seems like nobody can predict blocking and that's what drives our winters usually. The SAI failed this year, the warm AMO (-NAO) is failing this year. I am sure these indicators are never 100% so if you choose to believe in this stuff we are hitting the 10-20% failure this year. Kind of hard to knock the seasonal forecasters for that. Oh I don't mean to knock anybody. In fact, I appreaciate the opportunity to read and learn from all of the seasonal forecasts. But we're nowhere near the place where we should put a lot of stock in any of them or any of these variables that allegedly have high historical correlations, as clearly, there are other factors that can easily trump everything at any time. Until that part of the equation is solved, it's pretty much like throwing darts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still some nice hits showing on the superENS, it's can't not snow forever....or can it... Not forever.....but the decade I waited for it to snow again('00-'10) was absolutely miserable and I would rather not repeat it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Which professional is forecasting that? I'd throw them under the bus with their cold/snowy winter 2014-15 forecast. None that I know of. It's just our luck to get a beautiful pattern so that all it can do is create a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Good thing Seattle didn't give up yesterday like some of you are here about winter. Yeah Brick, that's the spirit! Come on gang, let's get out there and take our winter back! We can do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 tonight is the kind of night where we get the classic 00z gfs burger pbp to reel us all back in. lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Still some nice hits showing on the superENS, it's can't not snow forever....or can it...Winter cancel. Still out in the 11+ day time frame along with all the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Oh I don't mean to knock anybody. In fact, I appreaciate the opportunity to read and learn from all of the seasonal forecasts. But we're nowhere near the place where we should put a lot of stock in any of them or any of these variables that allegedly have high historical correlations, as clearly, there are other factors that can easily trump everything at any time. Until that part of the equation is solved, it's pretty much like throwing darts. Truth......the forecasts were all based on something that hadn't happened yet, but all models were forecasting it to happen and the analogs used are the same way btw....I'm still waiting on my true Nino promised last spring/summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah Brick, that's the spirit! Come on gang, let's get out there and take our winter back! We can do it! Yay! Throw a "Luck Chuck" to complete a winter TD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just figured I would post this.. I think a lot of us will need this image in the coming weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hopefully the euro shows a cutter for the Friday storm. Maybe we could get excited then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Oh I don't mean to knock anybody. In fact, I appreaciate the opportunity to read and learn from all of the seasonal forecasts. But we're nowhere near the place where we should put a lot of stock in any of them or any of these variables that allegedly have high historical correlations, as clearly, there are other factors that can easily trump everything at any time. Until that part of the equation is solved, it's pretty much like throwing darts. JB is interesting, he isn't going down without a fight. He may have a chance to get close with his temp forecast, assuming the next 6 weeks are brutally cold but hard to imagine that. There is just no way his snow forecast is going to verify. For example, I think BOS is at 5" for the winter and they avg about 40", so for them to finish 133% they would have to have 50" of snow from here through roughly mid-March. He has the TN Valley and Oh valley at 167% above snow climo, that would take a series of Apps runners in Feb/March to pull that off. Although it is interesting, in 02-03, BOS did essentially pull off 50" in Feb/March. Somehow I think the MA hits climo, they can usually pull a rabbit out there hat. RDU has had several winters where we hit our avg in Feb/March (79, 80, 04, 14), just to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I remember that one SE met had at 100% of my average snowfall and the other had me at 150% so yeah. I'm expecting this in February! The monthly departures called for wall to wall cold so that was an epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Backloaded winter? Back loading cow sh&t to keep the grease , dumpster fire burning! Everybody looking for the moisture to creep north on the models? So what, we get .25 instead of .10, with temps near 40! That sounds like a winning combination! 38+ light rates= crap! The clipper coming behind it will bring glory! Actually, Mack, that sounds more like a whining combination, something we seem to have in excess around here lately from many on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I remember that one SE met had at 100% of my average snowfall and the other had me at 150% so yeah. I'm expecting this in February! The monthly departures called for wall to wall cold so that was an epic fail. jb was not very cold for dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 OMG!!! What a beautiful spring winter day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 tonight is the kind of night where we get the classic 00z gfs burger pbp to reel us all back in. lets hope. I just needed the 6z NAVGEM PBP to reel me back in. What a beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Not forever.....but the decade I waited for it to snow again('00-'10) was absolutely miserable and I would rather not repeat it again Those of us in georgia and sc have been sort of spoiled the last few years. I went years without seeing a flake too. it's not easy getting snow for most of georgia and south carolina, especially south of 85. Folks should keep that in mind every year, no matter what all these winter forecasts said or will say in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 jb was not very cold for dec He wan neutral for us but cold in the center part of the country, it was a bad bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This was JB's Nov-Jan forecast, big bust here too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Wilmington ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Those of us in georgia and sc have been sort of spoiled the last few years. I went years without seeing a flake too. it's not easy getting snow for most of georgia and south carolina, especially south of 85. Folks should keep that in mind every year, no matter what all these winter forecasts said or will say in the future. Lookout, The bulk of N GA (if not all) has far exceeded climo for the winters since 2008-9, combined. I fully realize that. ATL has had a whopping four major winter storms since then! Four majors in six winters is hard to beat. The average % of total liquid equiv. that is wintry is under 5% for the bulk of N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Wilmington ftw! CFS did better than JB for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.