A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 bullish I'd say look out if that initial slug overnight is more ice than snow. Always gonna be a little more bullish on ice when the proceeding 48 hours plus are nice and cold and surfaces will only warm so much in the middle of the night. Nothing crazy but I expect a glaze even here on the lakefront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 the initial slug is what is setting off more alarms for me personally....as whether its snow or ice it may be enough to provide even just half a degree or degree of cooler temps Saturday during the rainier parts locally...which could spell some more troubles potentially (in addition to adding to any ice that has fallen/accumulated during the initial slug. Fortunately I got too much sleep the last 24 hours, so I should have plenty of obs time early tomorrow am Personally I don't see much to lock in the subfreezing air tomorrow. I could be wrong but I forsee a lot of 33-34 obs in northeast IL tomorrow afternoon. If the front end overperforms and lays down a couple inches then it would be interesting to see if that would have any effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DTX going with an advisory for a mix of snow/sleet/ice with more snow to the north and more ice to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 LOT went with a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GRR seems to think we'll struggle to make it to freezing tomorrow and expecting more snow at the onset. They think a quarter inch of ice is likely, but will have to monitor trends closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z ARW and NMM are pretty bullish with snowfall tomorrow, showing a 2-4" front-end thumping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z Euro euro.png I like that run. I wish it would turn out JUST like the EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GRR seems to think we'll struggle to make it to freezing tomorrow and expecting more snow at the onset. They think a quarter inch of ice is likely, but will have to monitor trends closely. I don't know. I thought, as usual, GRR NWS is being on the "warm side" and calling for way more rain than any model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Congrats Also on the 18z GFS! You're in line for 2-4" while I think MKE will see 1-2". Your 'wagons west's worked again (though not in your favor for the 1st storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Congrats *Alek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wonder if LOT and IWX may be underplaying the snow potential a bit overnight/early tomorrow in their northern and central cwa's. Trends throughout the day are looking better and hi-res backs up the idea of 1-2" roughly north of I-80 in IL and IN. Of course this assumes the thermal profiles are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Congrats Also on the 18z GFS! You're in line for 2-4" while I think MKE will see 1-2". Your 'wagons west's worked again (though not in your favor for the 1st storm). Not too sure about that. Those maps depict precipitation that has fallen over the previous 6 hours, and the isotherm is where the temps are at the end of the period. Most of that will fall as rain with perhaps some snow showers on the end, certainly not amounting to 2-4". The ice is the bigger game-- tomorrow morning will be rough traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Take Heart Winter Lovers; While One System's Snowstorm Chances Have Faded, One Gains Strength! http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2015/01/take-heart-winter-lovers-while-one.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not too sure about that. Those maps depict precipitation that has fallen over the previous 6 hours, and the isotherm is where the temps are at the end of the period. Most of that will fall as rain with perhaps some snow showers on the end, certainly not amounting to 2-4". The ice is the bigger game-- tomorrow morning will be rough traveling.All models show an axis of 1-4" with the backside deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 All models show an axis of 1-4" with the backside deformation zone. Yes, but mostly to the north and west of Chicago itself. This is the 18z GFS purely defo band accumulations. The frames after/before I didn't include for total accumulation, so in reality the area receives more than this. But purely defo band snows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z RGEM continues to hit the freezing rain threat pretty hard for parts of Northern & North Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z RGEM continues to hit the freezing rain threat pretty hard for parts of Northern & North Central Indiana. Other models ranging from nothing to several hundredths. Time for short range models and nowcasting. 33/20 at LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Other models ranging from nothing to several hundredths. Time for short range models and nowcasting. 33/20 at LAF I think most of us stand to have some pretty significant freezing rain in the morning hours. If you ask me, that's the real icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think most of us stand to have some pretty significant freezing rain in the morning hours. If you ask me, that's the real icing on the cake. I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yes, but mostly to the north and west of Chicago itself. This is the 18z GFS purely defo band accumulations. The frames after/before I didn't include for total accumulation, so in reality the area receives more than this. But purely defo band snows: GFS 18z.png If you blend guidance it would bring bring accumulating snow potential into the city...And at ORD there's an even better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The RAP continues to hint at mostly snow around here on the front end with 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think most of us stand to have some pretty significant freezing rain in the morning hours. If you ask me, that's the real icing on the cake. Looking like it's going to be more snow than freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If you blend guidance it would bring bring accumulating snow potential into the city...And at ORD there's an even better chance. I'm certainly not discounting the potential for some accumulating snow on the backside, especially at ORD. My thinking though, is that the majority of the snow will come on the front end for most of Chicagoland, amounting to perhaps 1-1.5 inches. That said, I think the main area of interest is the potential for lake effect on Sunday when we have some decent northerly or NNE winds, for some decent accumulation in northern Indiana and far eastern Cook county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 final call of .9" for mimilman and myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The 22z HRRR is doing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 final call of .9" for mimilman and myself counting the possible defo snows too? I'll take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looking like it's going to be more snow than freezing rainAnd even if there are areas in the CWA that manage to pick up mostly -FZRA before changing over to -RA/drizzle, there's not enough QPF to make it a significant icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 counting the possible defo snows too? I'll take the over defo will be just northwest, front end will be super light on total qpf (area wide) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'll go with a system snowfall total of 1.5" for ORD. Might adjust after 0z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 First and final call 1.7 for mby including front end and defo back end. Really focused on clipper with high ratio snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.