Toronto4 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The 00z Euro text output suggests a decent front-end thump of snow (2-3") for the Toronto area tomorrow afternoon before changing to rain. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The 00z Euro text output suggests a decent front-end thump of snow (2-3") for the Toronto area tomorrow afternoon before changing to rain. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues on the 12z runs. As I said in an earlier post, this sort of reminds me of a storm we had in early January last year. We had front end snow followed by a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z NAM is weaker and more SE than the 00z by a wide margin. It moved the low at 09z Sunday from northern lower to the tip of the thumb over Lake Huron and weakened it by 7mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It is starting to look like the level of convection to the south is going to end up being the main player like the Christmas eve storm was in determining how this baby plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 City of Chicago FZRN screwhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z NAM is weaker and more SE than the 00z by a wide margin. It moved the low at 09z Sunday from northern lower to the tip of the thumb over Lake Huron and weakened it by 7mb. Another SE nudge on the 12z GFS. SLP directly over DTW at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z NAM Snow Map: 12Z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Strong lake effect signal on the GFS for northwestern Indiana and extreme eastern Illinois, including parts of Chicago, between hours 48 and 60. NAM started to pick up on this as well. We could have a period of some strong northerly winds with the placement of this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A PL or an RN sounding? Riding the line way too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That's got freezing rain written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Strong lake effect signal on the GFS for northwestern Indiana and extreme eastern Illinois, including parts of Chicago, between hours 48 and 60. NAM started to pick up on this as well. We could have a period of some strong northerly winds with the placement of this low. noticed, something to watch i guess…couple more nudges south and things could get mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Haven't followed this too closely but it looks like we may able to sneak by with all frozen precip. Thermals get pretty marginal Saturday afternoon so wouldn't be surprised if sleet or rain mix in. Things look good Saturday night though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 noticed, something to watch i guess…couple more nudges south and things could get mildly interesting. This. Both the 12z GFS and PGFS continued the nudges SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A blend of the faster onset of precip and the SE nudges of the low placement will greatly increase the ice potential for DTX and other regions which were in the much warmer sections of the system a few runs ago. This will be much more interesting to watch unfold than the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A bit more clouds than I anticipated here, though the more extensive coverage is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GGEM holds the significant ice accumulations across the CWA before the changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GGEM holds the significant ice accumulations across the CWA before the changeover to rain. 12z GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM freezing rain through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM freezing rain through 48 hours. zr.gif Expecting LOT and perhaps northern IWX counties to issue freezing rain advisories to cover for the potential of accumulating ice in the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z Euro euro.png Wagons south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z NAM/GFS raw 2m output for LAF valid 18z: NAM: 34/24 GFS: 34/15 actual: 32/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Expecting LOT and perhaps northern IWX counties to issue freezing rain advisories to cover for the potential of accumulating ice in the early morning hours. WWA is more likely, given snow potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z NAM/GFS raw 2m output for LAF valid 18z: NAM: 34/24 GFS: 34/15 actual: 32/19 weenie.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 4km NAM had an 18z dewpoint of 19f at YYZ. Actual dewpoint is 11.7f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 weenie.gif lol, yeah, kinda. The more important thing is how things are when precip gets closer. But I'm not surprised the NAM is running high with dews as it's something I posted about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...LAF-OKK-MIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Coming around to the idea of meaningful ice here. Surfaces are still super cold and we just aren't warming that fast. Probably still flip to plain rain but it's possible the precip shuts off before we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Coming around to the idea of meaningful ice here. Surfaces are still super cold and we just aren't warming that fast. Probably still flip to plain rain but it's possible the precip shuts off before we do. bullish I'd say look out if that initial slug overnight is more ice than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 bullish I'd say look out if that initial slug overnight is more ice than snow. the initial slug is what is setting off more alarms for me personally....as whether its snow or ice it may be enough to provide even just half a degree or degree of cooler temps Saturday during the rainier parts locally...which could spell some more troubles potentially (in addition to adding to any ice that has fallen/accumulated during the initial slug. Fortunately I got too much sleep the last 24 hours, so I should have plenty of obs time early tomorrow am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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