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Annual Grinch Storm: Christmas Cataclysm

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

I'm actually glad for this ... I gotta be at two different observances on the Eve, and they are some 40 miles apart, so would rather not have to deal with travel outages due to snow.  Rain and some wind? no problem.  

 

One comical ob about it, tho -   Yeah, I can see that for the emotive types this is a bit cruelly, poorly timed, to the point of irony for you for being atomic-clock perfectly timed wrong for the Holiday it's self. It's like "on purpose" done TOO you. haha.  But throwing in 60+ hours of lead-time, sub snow column, only to have that whiplash "just in time"  ...Nice!

 

Actually, the pattern here trashed the whole week really.  This thing is now wound up so far west, the very thought of those ideas from a week ago are even laughable .. I mean, extended range model depictions are always taken with a large degree of incredulity .. err, we hope.  But, in combination with other factors, subtle tempos/trends and so forth, yeah, you can throw a little (maybe) confidence in some longer range solutions, depending on the scenario.  Regardless of p-type angst and sensible weather et al, the system's existence in space and time was fairly robustly signaled by the PNA -- I posted that this one was better signaled than the one for the 21st, when that one was in the process of 86'ing.  It's just that the PNA ... being such a ginormous area, can be positive and nuances in where the geopotential anomalies distribute becomes the entire game, set and match.  In this case, too far west.

 

So far west in these last several GFS cycles that lion's share of dynamics with the system may bundle up and escape into Canada, leaving actually weakening gradient associated with cfropa. The wind field may not reach the warn criteria over SE sections, because of that.  

 

That would have been a whole 'nother hoot... Sans snow, but power outages on Xmas Eve... No thanks there, either.

 

Anyway, the whole week:   Indicative of the "too west" notion, not only do the dynamics escape (perhaps), the cold in the backside of the system rolls out very quickly, as height rebound fast and the attending back side anticyclone pass S.  The 27th could be one spectacularly balmy day.  +7 850mb temps with good mixing; that is not an inversion warm look there, folks.  That's an unseasonably warm day!

 

Things likely change in earnest there after.  We see this in concept, but have no clue on magnitude.  But, the multiple day persistent negative WPO/negative EPO is finally ... after some 8 cycles of operational Euro, showing up on that model in the latter terms. Sparing hypocrisy, ...I say, we see this in concept, sans any details.

 

I will say this, tho -  I would not be surprised if a big azz system occurs between Dec 29 and Jan 4 ... That's may best guess for vulnerability at this time.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I'm actually glad for this ... I gotta be at two different observances on the Eve, and they are some 40 miles apart, so would rather not have to deal with travel outages due to snow.  Rain and some wind? no problem.  

 

One comical ob about it, tho -   Yeah, I can see that for the emotive types this is a bit cruelly, poorly timed, to the point of irony for you for being atomic-clock perfectly timed wrong for the Holiday it's self. It's like "on purpose" done TOO you. haha.  But throwing in 60+ hours of lead-time, sub snow column, only to have that whiplash "just in time"  ...Nice!

 

Actually, the pattern here trashed the whole week really.  This thing is now wound up so far west, the very thought of those ideas from a week ago are even laughable .. I mean, extended range model depictions are always taken with a large degree of incredulity .. err, we hope.  But, in combination with other factors, subtle tempos/trends and so forth, yeah, you can throw a little (maybe) confidence in some longer range solutions, depending on the scenario.  Regardless of p-type angst and sensible weather et al, the system's existence in space and time was fairly robustly signaled by the PNA -- I posted that this one was better signaled than the one for the 21st, when that one was in the process of 86'ing.  It's just that the PNA ... being such a ginormous area, can be positive and nuances in where the geopotential anomalies distribute becomes the entire game, set and match.  In this case, too far west.

 

So far west in these last several GFS cycles that lion's share of dynamics with the system may bundle up and escape into Canada, leaving actually weakening gradient associated with cfropa. The wind field may not reach the warn criteria over SE sections, because of that.  

 

That would have been a whole 'nother hoot... Sans snow, but power outages on Xmas Eve... No thanks there, either.

 

Anyway, the whole week:   Indicative of the "too west" notion, not only do the dynamics escape (perhaps), the cold in the backside of the system rolls out very quickly, as height rebound fast and the attending back side anticyclone pass S.  The 27th could be one spectacularly balmy day.  +7 850mb temps with good mixing; that is not an inversion warm look there, folks.  That's an unseasonably warm day!

 

Things likely change in earnest there after.  We see this in concept, but have no clue on magnitude.  But, the multiple day persistent negative WPO/negative EPO is finally ... after some 8 cycles of operational Euro, showing up on that model in the latter terms. Sparing hypocrisy, ...I say, we see this in concept, sans any details.

 

I will say this, tho -  I would not be surprised if a big azz system occurs between Dec 29 and Jan 4 ... That's may best guess for vulnerability at this time.

Today's gfs says just that. Op run so it's for amusement purposes at d11...lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Today's gfs says just that. Op run so it's for amusement purposes at d11...lol.

 

Perhaps a tad OT, but ... in brief.. The expanse of the cold is the most amazing appeal of that period of time. The 00z oper. Euro jumped squarely onto the EPO ridge band wagon, and may (ironically for that model...) be too warm with the 850mb medium over the Canadian shield.  But ... that look between the operational runs, combined with the persistent teleconnector is every bit as cold as what made ORD press last winter.  And HUUUGE in areal coverage. Deep, too, with thickness contours curling around the highest ridge of the Rockies and threatening to spill to the coast, while 498 DM pockets drift through Ontario.  That's ... got to be appreciated Meteorologically.. 

 

Whether it parlays into snow... yeah, you'd think so. Can't really hone anything to specific (duh) just yet, but the canvas is certainly tinted in the right direction with that.  The Euro has a open but powerful wave amplifying of the SE on its D10 panel too.   But again... it's the layout that impresses for the time being...

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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The Euro is a bit tamer but still has some damaging type winds..if we can get to surface

 

Both the euro/GFS have a pretty potent LLJ, however, like always in these systems there will be a steep inversion in place...unless we can really warm those sfc temps.  Wednesday though should still be gusty but Thursday could feature some pretty strong winds on the backside of the system...perhaps even HWW type stuff but too early to really get into that

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Both the euro/GFS have a pretty potent LLJ, however, like always in these systems there will be a steep inversion in place...unless we can really warm those sfc temps. Wednesday though should still be gusty but Thursday could feature some pretty strong winds on the backside of the system...perhaps even HWW type stuff but too early to really get into that

You can envision inflatable Santas and reindeer becoming airborn Xmas Eve and Day
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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Posted

Anybody else think the bombogenisis takes place after LLJ is past most of us limiting winds and rain totals?

 

Given the timeframe that certainly can't be discounted.  However, I think as far as the winds are concerned, the winds are more of a threat on Thursday as opposed to Wednesday as the system is departing.  We could still see wind gusts maybe 30-40 mph on Wednesday but that may be more confined to coastal areas.  More impressive winds look to occur Thursday...string mixing on the backside and pretty impressive wind profile.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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All modeling now does not bomb this out over the lakes instead it's deep in Eastern Canada. The LLJ intensifies east of NE resulting in a less impressive wind field. Except for Maine NNE ski resorts are spared potential flooding rains, SNE receives 1-2 with spots to 2+ . The 959 original bomb is now a meh 990 ish pedestrian rainer with some 30 mph gusts higher on the Cape.

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dryslot

dryslot

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All modeling now does not bomb this out over the lakes instead it's deep in Eastern Canada. The LLJ intensifies east of NE resulting in a less impressive wind field. Except for Maine NNE ski resorts are spared potential flooding rains, SNE receives 1-2 with spots to 2+ . The 959 original bomb is now a meh 990 ish pedestrian rainer with some 30 mph gusts higher on the Cape.

 

Its looking more and more unimpressive and i am fine with that, Get it down to a weak FROPA............ :)

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