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Annual Grinch Storm: Christmas Cataclysm


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It will be interesting to see what happens with the winds from Wednesday night on.  The NAM is actually pretty impressive with a pretty long window with gusts of 50-55 mph possible.  The GFS is a little bit more tame and has come down in recent runs.  But with CAA occurring on the backside of the system and some pretty decent mixing per forecast soundings I think we'll see a period of some pretty decent winds...enough to produce some power outages.  

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It will be interesting to see what happens with the winds from Wednesday night on. The NAM is actually pretty impressive with a pretty long window with gusts of 50-55 mph possible. The GFS is a little bit more tame and has come down in recent runs. But with CAA occurring on the backside of the system and some pretty decent mixing per forecast soundings I think we'll see a period of some pretty decent winds...enough to produce some power outages.

There will def be some white pines snapped and some of those tall spruce trees will be uprooted with wet unfrozen ground
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There will def be some white pines snapped and some of those tall spruce trees will be uprooted with wet unfrozen ground

 

The wet and unfrozen ground will certainly lead to some tree damage I think.  The NAM and GFS both have some pretty impressive low-level winds overhead for much of Thursday and into early Friday.  It also looks like it could clear out rather quickly on Thursday so some heating and stronger mixing we should mix down decent gusts.  Don't think a 60 mph gust can be ruled out...although probably more likely across the higher terrain but still.  

 

A prolonged period with gusts exceeding 40-45 mph can still do some damage

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A few of you may hear your first Christmas thunder ever (maybe even me). Low prob of damaging winds with convective storms/showers late wed night/ early thurs morning in warm sector. Again low prob, but would not shock me - especially the occurence of tsra.

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A few of you may hear your first Christmas thunder ever (maybe even me). Low prob of damaging winds with convective storms/showers late wed night/ early thurs morning in warm sector. Again low prob, but would not shock me - especially the occurence of tsra.

 

That would be awesome!

 

The NAM overspreads a few hundred J/KG of MUcape across the region, however, more importantly in these setups is TT values get into the mid-40's...even near 50 towards the coast and KI values into the lower 30's.  Even SI drops into the lower single digits.  Lift is pretty damn strong too.

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That would be awesome!

The NAM overspreads a few hundred J/KG of MUcape across the region, however, more importantly in these setups is TT values get into the mid-40's...even near 50 towards the coast and KI values into the lower 30's. Even SI drops into the lower single digits. Lift is pretty damn strong too.

there's a good shot at GYX breaking its all time Dec pwat record 12z thurs (records go back to 1948).
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there's a good shot at GYX breaking its all time Dec pwat record 12z thurs (records go back to 1948).

 

what's the value?  

 

The PWATS are going to be ridiculous with this system.  With any convective elements involved, a few are going to see 5'' or so of rain I bet.  The moisture influx off the Atlantic is pretty impressive with that LLJ cranking in off the ocean.

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what's the value?

The PWATS are going to be ridiculous with this system. With any convective elements involved, a few are going to see 5'' or so of rain I bet. The moisture influx off the Atlantic is pretty impressive with that LLJ cranking in off the ocean.

1.39" ...CHH is in the 1.60s i believe
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I like it in the winter. Keeps temps cooler, people inside , and windows up and arms inside. With no snow at least it's been unpleasant for outdoor activities

 

:lol:  At least its been unpleasant for outdoor activities, haha, probably pisses you off to no end to see kids playing basketball outside in December regardless of temperature.

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This has to be one of the cloudiest months we've ever had. It's been cloudy or precipitating most of the days this month ftw . Love it . F the sun

 

It really has been.  Saturday was sunny and then before that it was well before the big cut-off retro storm to find another sunny day.  11 days of snowfall at the house this month, 9 days of 1" or greater, so at least as you said it has been precipitating regularly.

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It really has been. Saturday was sunny and then before that it was well before the big cut-off retro storm to find another sunny day. 11 days of snowfall at the house this month, 9 days of 1" or greater, so at least as you said it has been precipitating regularly.

saw a stat from Penn State 95% clouds since Dec 10th
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I imagine his house heating to like 75F with the oven on and all the cooking, but refusing to open the deck slider to cool it off because of his disorder.

Absolutely no windows open in winter. Nothing says Merry Cmas like opening windows to let the gnats, winter moths and flying black ants that will be hatching this week inside.
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A few of you may hear your first Christmas thunder ever (maybe even me). Low prob of damaging winds with convective storms/showers late wed night/ early thurs morning in warm sector. Again low prob, but would not shock me - especially the occurence of tsra.

Well if we can't have snow, let's green up the grass, hatch some insects , bang some thunder and take down some Santas and trees
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So this is pretty fascinating... the "Grinch" phenomena may be sort of real?

 

Eye on the Sky Weather (the forecasts you hear on Vermont Public Radio) ran the numbers for St Johnsbury, VT...and found a notable increase in average temperature around Christmas, and this is with a 120-year record period. 

 

10421530_826648684058871_884912484371877

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