Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change

[Ginx snewx]

Yep nice cutter into buffalo with a se ridge

ah Forest. first day of map rip and reading 100? Good job. Tomorrow we discuss bias correction, please bring your notebook. TIA

[dendrite]

Sorry, but what is childish is being intolerant of other perspectives. I'd rather sunny, than overcast and cold, or rainy. If the storm isn't going to snow on me, then keep it the hell away.

I call BS. If there's a storm that could hit Kevin yet give you sun you'd still wish for it to whiff everyone.

[OceanStWx]

Nobody claims that December doesn't fairly often have good events. We are just pointing out that it's still a pretty small portion of winter climo. Particularly in El Niño winters. Think about those events you mentioned. They occurred in La Niña which more commonly has good Decembers.

 

It's not like I'm arguing December isn't a winter month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the worst winter month since Feb 2010.....although last March was up there. Man, two winter months in a row have just blown chunks..

[40/70 Benchmark]

I call BS. If there's a storm that could hit Kevin yet give you sun you'd still wish for it to whiff everyone.

I don't really care what you call.

[Ginx snewx]

I call BS. If there's a storm that could hit Kevin yet give you sun you'd still wish for it to whiff everyone.

he just said he'd rather sunny though?

[Ginx snewx]

This is the worst winter month since Feb 2010.....although last March was up there. Man, two winter months in a row have just blown chunks..

pretty boring from a winter perspective for sure, need a Feb 83 to switch things up, oh wait

[40/70 Benchmark]

he just said he'd rather sunny though?

I love the group that can't resist the innate urge to qualify the statement of someone else....talk about childish.

[CoastalWx]

LOL

[dendrite]

I the group that can't resist the innate urge to qualify the statement of someone else....talk about childish.

At least own up to it dude. You've been on these forums for years and it's pretty obvious. If you get 10" while someone around you gets 15" you go into piss mode.

[dendrite]

It's like Tip claiming he's unemotionally attached to the weather...lol.

[CoastalWx]

Just like last winter, you'll have to deal with storms that cut. With no blocking, it is what it is. Just deal with it and accept it. You'll also have your chances, but that's how it goes with these systems. Last year had a couple of storms, then we torched at times in January. maybe this time it reverses..who knows, but plan on cutters from time to time. Maybe it's more SWFE type deals.

[SnowGoose69]

pretty boring from a winter perspective for sure, need a Feb 83 to switch things up, oh wait

 

My guess is it won't change til the MJO goes into 7 around 1/15 or so, at the same time though, the pattern breakdown if you will around 1/7 probably won't be that bad because the ridge will stay intact to an extent by AK.  There may be a snow event before 1/15-1/20 but its gonna be a classic SWFE not a coastal.

[dendrite]

Before you reply back to me Ray...know that I love you.

[Allsnow]

ah Forest. first day of map rip and reading 100? Good job. Tomorrow we discuss bias correction, please bring your notebook. TIA

The Pv is parked in the center of Canada with no 50/50 and the mean trough in the center of the nation...also the Se ridge pumping...spells diff pattern same result outside nne

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least own up to it dude. You've been on these forums for years and it's pretty obvious. If you get 10" while someone around you gets 15" you go into piss mode.

It depends on what I was expecting. If the forecast was 12-18", and I got 10", while the next town over got 15"? Yes.

[Damage In Tolland]

Melt melts, Melting,Melter,melted

[Ginx snewx]

I love the group that can't resist the innate urge to qualify the statement of someone else....talk about childish.

I was agreeing with you

[40/70 Benchmark]

It also depends on how the winter had been going,etc.....

[Ginx snewx]

The Pv is parked in the center of Canada with no 50/50 and the mean trough in the center of the nation...also the Se ridge pumping...spells diff pattern same result outside nne

thanks for the map interpretation regurgitation,I hadn't looked....but pretty awesome you can delineate NNE from CNE on a map

[weathafella]

The epo is so stout on all the guidance. We're going to have chances. Dry your eyes ya big babies!

[WinterWolf]

There are many problems with this. 

 

The first is that there are so many variables.  The atmosphere is continuous and dynamic across the globe, so certainly the state of the atmosphere in one location will affect the flow someplace else.  There are very general recurrent "patterns."  But the specific state of these patterns and their evolution can take on an infinite degree of variation.

 

We try to categorize indices with algorithms and weighted averages to define them and then ascribe characteristics to these numbers.  But the thing we are categorizing is much more complicated than our categorization system.  The height field in Alaska or the western Pacific might yield favorable conditions for snow in one instance, but that doesn't mean it always will.  We try to invent "characteristic patterns" that we think we've seen before and then expect a repeatable outcome.  Even with a favorable NAO, PNA, AO, and recurving Typhoon, we just might not get favorable weather.  It is even more challenging in mid-latitudes with such transitional and dynamic atmospheric flow.  Those indices are averaged and generalized and useful only on a very large scale.  There is not a strong enough correlation between the regional or local scale that we are interested in for weather and the large or global scale that we are looking at for "patterns."  There is definitely a link, but it's not as sure of a thing as a lot of people think.

 

Another problem is the relatively small sample size in historical correlations.  All the time I see people filter data by ENSO or MJO state and also by month or some other variable and then come up with a really pretty picture that looks convincing.   But the mathematician in me knows that if you only have 2 or 3 or even 5 instances of those variables, your result is not statistically significant.

 

The last problem concerns causality.  I often see people talk about the forecast state for various climate indices and teleconnectors.  They then infer based on the modeled future state of the global atmosphere what the weather "pattern" over the US is likely to be, and then further speculate what that might mean for the weather in the northeast US.  This exercise employs a very tenuous logical framework.  The first problem is that climate does not cause weather.  You can associate certain states of one to specific conditions, but climate describes rather than causes weather.  When the weather (i.e. the atmosphere) changes, the climate indices will also change.  It is the weather that drives our measurement of climate.  So it seems a bit backwards to be looking at forecasts for the climate to discern the future weather.  And the forecast indices are as likely to be wrong as a 10 day GFS prog.  So to make a reliable prediction about regional weather and the likelihood for snow you have to make one assumption on top of another, none of which is well supported.

 

There are clearly characteristic atmospheric patterns and they recur and correlate in somewhat repeatable forms on a global scale.  But we are still not good enough at predicting their formation and evolution, and especially the regional and local impact. 

 

A lot of the "pattern" talk on here I feel is just leading a herd of "weenies" off a cliff.

Fabuous Post!!  Nobody knows the future....Period!!  Great patterns don't mean Snow like many have said.  And bad patterns don't necessarily mean no Snow.  Whatever will be, will be. 

[Ginx snewx]

Fabuous Post!! Nobody knows the future....Period!! Great patterns don't mean Snow like many have said. And bad patterns don't necessarily mean no Snow. Whatever will be, will be.

except that's not what he said

[SnoSki14]

My guess is it won't change til the MJO goes into 7 around 1/15 or so, at the same time though, the pattern breakdown if you will around 1/7 probably won't be that bad because the ridge will stay intact to an extent by AK. There may be a snow event before 1/15-1/20 but its gonna be a classic SWFE not a coastal.

Pushing things forward I see. So far practically anything that was supposed to happen 10+ days from now didn't so color me skeptical. The only thing that's certain is that the clock in winter wont stop ticking.

So we have a good 6-8 weeks to get something before time starts running out. You guys may have an extra week or two than us further south but it'll run out before you know it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was agreeing with you

I know

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile away from  insanity-ville, some signs a more favorable pattern develops after whatever happens day 8. There is a weenie -NAO  ridge into NE Greenland and the -EPO is firmly established. You can tell with the way HP looks on the ensemble along with weenie bagginess in the isobars near and south of SNE.

[powderfreak]

I love the group that can't resist the innate urge to qualify the statement of someone else....talk about childish.

lol you know how awful these forums would be if everyone wished others not to get snow if they couldn't have it either?

If SNE was expecting a good storm and then the EURO came out with a whiff, disappointing everyone, while posters in NNE started posting, "that was an awesome run, glad that missed SNE"...this place would turn into a sh*tshow. Or if those in CT were saying well "I'm really glad those guys north of the Pike get shafted this run, I can't watch that happen again".

It's like board etiquette not to wish for someone else to get screwed, just because you think you are out of the running. This forum would be a train wreck if we all did that to each other.

[WinterWolf]

LOL, you'll be fine right through mid March in W HFD. The events that start to suck after early March are the 2-4SM -SN events that amount to fiddle sticks anyways.

Thanks for that Scott.  My goodness some of these people that live in Interior SNE act like they live in Southern Vaginia....talking about once Mid Feb comes they are done..????  Really People, calm down.  And last year the people living way down south did great in March with snow, and we got Zilch because it was too cold here and the snow was suppressed way south of SNE...WAY South!!   

[Ginx snewx]

It's like Tip claiming he's unemotionally attached to the weather...lol.

everytime I read a Tippy waxing philosophical post it reminds me of these, honest to God

[40/70 Benchmark]

Fabuous Post!! Nobody knows the future....Period!! Great patterns don't mean Snow like many have said. And bad patterns don't necessarily mean no Snow. Whatever will be, will be.

You're the biggest sycophant in the world....Jesus. Everytime someone makes a post that even remotely jives with you, you promptly drop trou and proceed to chase them to the virtual bedroom. We get it. You're young, and want to be accepted.