Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[FallsLake]

Interestingly enough it seems like the models are starting to pick up on the CAD....CMC has a weak one with a 1024 H in NY. GFS is late like the CMC with a weak High. GFS PARA flirts with a 1028. GEFS has a 1024 in the area. All of them are a little late with the timing but again it should be watched especially if the Euro looks like it did last night. Could see a big threat for ice if so. 

We'll have to track the availability of cold/dry air to our north. Would like to see some single digit dew point temps near DC and upper teens into NC.

 

Not quit there on the NAM:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[burgertime]

Like to see a big higher than 1024-1028. That range rarely seems to get in done, at least this far south.

 

I don't know, I think a 1028 will do the job especially for the I-40 region. For you and I we would probably be sitting at 32 and rain with some slick car tops. 

[BullCityWx]

CMC has a some serious CAD going on...

 

GSP has long lauded the CMC for it's performance during damming events. 

[NCSNOW]

1028 will get it done, espeacilly if it's just getting entrenched as moisture arrives. You have to watch the dps, that's the trick . You get upper teens it's a good bet that if you'll wet bulb below freezing and fight off the latent heat release from liquid freezing as long as you keep the caa or ne wind up while moisture is falling.

Man I'm getting jacked with some of the analog years for the upper air pattern the last week of December.

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like sleet or a mix on the cmc.

The mid atlantic forum is a fun read today.

[packbacker]

Out to 96...Euro is probably going to be a bit stronger at 12z, probably a good run for the w-NC, MA and NE.

[packbacker]

12z is much warmer though...you can say what you want about the GFS but the Euro is moving to a weaker/warmer like the GFS.  Looks like all rain for all of NC.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro is just above freezing for wnc, at 850. We need a deeper low.

[packbacker]

Euro is just above freezing for wnc, at 850. We need a deeper low.

 

LOL, this might be a complete whiff on the Euro.  I dare someone to go post in the MA thread the Euro just caved to the GFS....DT would lose it.

[burgertime]

Euro has some CAD but nothing really too good. High keeps sliding around. Euro indeed seems to be falling more towards a CMC/GFS solution...all hail the king? 

[Cold Rain]

Euro is just above freezing for wnc, at 850. We need a deeper low.

 

Bingo.  That's what old Cold Rain's been a sayin'.

[franklin NCwx]

LOL, this might be a complete whiff on the Euro. I dare someone to go post in the MA thread the Euro just caved to the GFS....DT would lose it.

lol.. they have been in attack mode on the pa posters.

[packbacker]

lol.. they have been in attack mode on the pa posters.

 

LOL...You were right though, looks like west of 77 is snow/sleet but does warm right at the end.  

[superjames1992]

The Euro looks marginally better this run.  It might actually start off as snow here before quickly going over to 33/RN.  Maybe.  Same for the foothills and even the mountains.  No one is safe this run.

[franklin NCwx]

Man, sitting at plus 1 at 850 sucks!

[Brick Tamland]

So is this going to be one of those deals where the GFS is all over the place and looks like it's drunk, but then the Euro ends up caving to it anyway? That seems to happen a lot.

[BullCityWx]

Man, sitting at plus 1 at 850 sucks!

 

Welcome to my world. 

[superjames1992]

Man, sitting at plus 1 at 850 sucks!

 

I think that's where I sat at during last winter's major ice storm in March.  Instead of well over a foot of snow, I ended up with 3" of sleet and a lot of freezing rain.  It was an interesting storm, though.

 

BTW, speaking of weaker high pressures and CAD, wasn't the HP in place during the 3/6-7 ice storm last winter only 1028 mb?  I might be remembering wrong, though.  Obviously, it was weak enough that it didn't really do the trick much S/E of here, though.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

12z is much warmer though...you can say what you want about the GFS but the Euro is moving to a weaker/warmer like the GFS.  Looks like all rain for all of NC.

Yep, I look for GSP to remove the mention of snow from my forecast with this afternoon's package. I know it hasn't happened yet, but we might want to remember this later in the season when the Euro shows a bomb and the GFS is weaker and warmer. I recall a storm last winter that the Euro over-amped. The GFS was right on that one as well. Who knows??

[packbacker]

Bingo.  That's what old Cold Rain's been a sayin'.

 

HAH....well I doubt this will magically get stronger the next few days.  Euro is always a little to deep at day 5-7 but I thought it would have been stronger than this.  Oh well, atleast we go some 35F/rain to look forward to this weekend, and the inevitable pattern change to 33F/rain.

[deltadog03]

It looks like the euro has gone a little bit towards the Canadian and the GFS. Yes, the euro is a much better model, but that doesn't always mean it's right. The flow might be too fast right now, so therefore the GFS might do a little bit better with this.if I was in western North Carolina I still think ice a definite possibility however those possibilities are actually decreasing in my opinion. Plus it looks like there is no snow through Tennessee or Kentucky with this at all.

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[EmersonGA]

Man, sitting at plus 1 at 850 sucks!

That sounds like winter in NW Georgia.

[WXinCanton]

GFS 1 euro 0

 

LOL

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It looks like the euro has gone a little bit towards the Canadian and the GFS. Yes, the euro is a much better model, but that doesn't always mean it's right. The flow might be too fast right now, so therefore the GFS might do a little bit better with this.if I was in western North Carolina I still think ice a definite possibility however those possibilities are actually decreasing in my opinion. Plus it looks like there is no snow through Tennessee or Kentucky with this at all.

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Look at it on the bright side..... at least it's not a lakes-cutter. I absolutely despise cutters. I would rather take my chances with a good track and no cold air, than to watch Chicago get a blizzard.

[franklin NCwx]

That sounds like winter in NW Georgia.

lol.. yeah usually it's around your area. Maybe we have a sleet fest.

[EmersonGA]

lol.. yeah usually it's around your area. Maybe we have a sleet fest.

I was shocked last winter in the February storm when we picked up 2" while a couple of miles down the road got nothing.  We are always on the other side of the line but karma caught up I guess.  It is amazing how it always seems to be 33 and rain.

[franklin NCwx]

I was shocked last winter in the February storm when we picked up 2" while a couple of miles down the road got nothing. We are always on the other side of the line but karma caught up I guess. It is amazing how it always seems to be 33 and rain.

yeah we got a foot out of that storm did not mix at all either.

[BIG FROSTY]

Wish I had a dollar for every time King euro showed snow here within seven days and end up with zilch! ⛄️

[NCSU2005]

Let's remember that we are still 80+ hours out on this event starting. Trends are not good today, but we've seen models waiver in the 3-4 day range before. Not expecting anything frozen imby either way.

[jburns]

Let's remember that we are still 80+ hours out on this event starting. Trends are not good today, but we've seen models waiver in the 3-4 day range before. Not expecting anything frozen imby either way.

 

Lets also remember that we are 124 hours into this thread.  There has to be a message in there somewhere.