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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
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Interestingly enough every model is starting to pick up on the CAD...that high floats around on every model. I think that really needs to be watched, it wouldn't be the first time a good CAD setup sneaked in before. I agree though Delta all of the energy should begin getting sampled well tomorrow so this could still change.

I agree bud. I actually think that is gonna sneak in there

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
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Euro looks miserable on Sat/Sun...drizzle/light rain with temps in the mid/upper 30's for a lot of NC.

 

In fact it doesn't get above 40F on Fri/Sat/Sun.

 

Compared to the Euro 00Z run from last night, this new run is absolute night and day difference.  Old runs had the low moving off or up the coast leaving most of NC dry Sunday.  Now, the 12Z Euro has what appears to be upslope-induced precipitation over the wedge on all day Sunday.  This has HUGE changes for the Christmas Day forecast as well, which now looks massively wet and incredibly warm for the entire eastern half of the country.  Wow what a change - and a big change at that for the Euro.  I'm speechless.

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WSNC

WSNC

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Compared to the Euro 00Z run from last night, this new run is absolute night and day difference.  Old runs had the low moving off or up the coast leaving most of NC dry Sunday.  Now, the 12Z Euro has what appears to be upslope-induced precipitation over the wedge on all day Sunday.  This has HUGE changes for the Christmas Day forecast as well, which now looks massively wet and incredibly warm for the entire eastern half of the country.  Wow what a change - and a big change at that for the Euro.  I'm speechless.

Looks identical to the para GFS.  Northern NC mountains could be in for a good NWFS event Xmas eve. 

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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The 12z EPS mean doesn't have >2" of fantasy snow for anyone, not even the mountains.  No precip really gets into the Mid-Atlantic at all.  Looking at the mean MSLP, you can't even really tell there's a storm.  What a change from two days ago when the ensembles were gung-ho for a monstrous storm... :lol:

 

On the "positive" side, the EPS mean is pretty gung-ho about our rainstorm before Christmas.  :gun_bandana:  :sun:

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

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We may be looking at a situation where the PAC Jet placement is just In the right place this winter for us in the south maybe just a couple of degrees to warm and for snow. Those in DC on north maybe game on . I have been watching the high pressure placement and it has been further north each time . Hope I am wrong , lot of winter still to come

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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We may be looking at a situation where the PAC Jet placement is just In the right place this winter for us in the south maybe just a couple of degrees to warm and for snow. Those in DC on north maybe game on . I have been watching the high pressure placement and it has been further north each time . Hope I am wrong , lot of winter still to come

Hey buddy, what's happening? Models are just all over the place.... I've never seen such a huge turn around on Euro from 0z to 12z It's was giving us .70qpf for days for Saturday! 12z today it shows .06 just lol is all you can say!!! Merry Christmas, and enjoy your warm rain Christmas eve!!!

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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Yep she looks pretty juicy, 850 line right on NC/Va. border.

Looks close. It will be interesting to see if we an get a little better feed of cold/dry air.

 

850s:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141217+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Maybe we can catch a good break for once? But I doubt it! lol

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Give me a couple of snow flakes or a sleet shower and I'll call it a win.

RNK left me a little hope!  For a flake or pellet.... lol

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE

OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE

WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN

THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER. NEAR

STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A

CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY

TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
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That stinking Euro got me sucked in again, for several days was showing snow or at least a mix for here... 12z today it went to nothing this weekend 0.06 of drizzle and not even close to freezing at that? WOW what a change...... The KING :whistle: lol

As Eddie says the Euro has a little bit of Mississippi hound in him. Everyonce in a while he likes to get hold of your leg. When he does the best thing to do is just let him go on and finish his business. Then he'll get back to normal.

That stinking Euro got me sucked in again, for several days was showing snow or at least a mix for here... 12z today it went to nothing this weekend 0.06 of drizzle and not even close to freezing at that? WOW what a change...... The KING :whistle: lol

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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As Eddie says the Euro has a little bit of Mississippi hound in him. Everyonce in a while he likes to get hold of your leg. When he does the best thing to do is just let him go on and finish his business. Then he'll get back to normal.

18z NAM was pretty wet and cold, Now 0z NAM has almost nothing at all? lol

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