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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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Okay, let's not all destroy the European model, yes it has a tendency to be a little too strong at times, but it was very consistent for a while. That's why I said you're the night when it went away from its continually it was a little troublesome

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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Okay, let's not all destroy the European model, yes it has a tendency to be a little too strong at times, but it was very consistent for a while. That's why I said you're the night when it went away from its continually it was a little troublesome

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we are coming with pitchforks! !!
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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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Euro still a close call here. .65qpf

 

SAT 12Z 20-DEC   1.3    -1.0    1026      76      99    0.03     565     544   
SAT 18Z 20-DEC   0.6    -1.0    1025      91      99    0.22     563     543   
SUN 00Z 21-DEC   0.5     1.5    1024      96     100    0.26     561     542   
SUN 06Z 21-DEC   0.8     1.2    1022      97      66    0.14     564     546   

 

Can ya say 33 and rain! lol

 

 

 

GSO--

SAT 12Z 20-DEC   2.1     0.3    1026      77      99    0.02     566     545   
SAT 18Z 20-DEC   1.1     0.1    1025      97     100    0.24     564     544   
SUN 00Z 21-DEC   0.7     3.3    1023      99      98    0.29     563     545   
SUN 06Z 21-DEC   0.8     1.7    1022      98      25    0.21     565     547   

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calculus1

calculus1

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Okay, let's not all destroy the European model, yes it has a tendency to be a little too strong at times, but it was very consistent for a while. That's why I said you're the night when it went away from its continually it was a little troublesome

 

:blink:

 

Sent from my iPhone

 

Aha!  That explains it.  :D   Please keep up your recently increased posting levels, sir.  I enjoy them and learn from them...especially the posts not made from your iPhone.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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I'm liking my forecast as of now! Of course it will change many times before Saturday!!! lol  

 

 

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

70 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE

MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S.

CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT

Now they start the chain saw for the trimming of the snow! lol

 

FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...RAIN. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.

CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A

CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE

IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN

THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

 

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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A little tidbit from JB after the 12z Euro....

 

This is very strange. It is not normal to see the ensemble stronger than the operational models this close in, but the Canadian, the US ensemble and very likely the European will all have stronger ensemble forecasts for the storm this weekend than their operational model.

The Canadian ensemble is the most impressive so far off 12z.. the European ensemble is not in

Imagine if the Canadian ensemble is right.

 

I suspect the Euro will come back toward the more vigorous storm it had, once it can figure out what to do with what is coming out of the rockies

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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FWIW... from Robert...

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth

 

The storm's track for Friday into the weekend has shifted south, beginning with yesterday's runs, thanks to the Blocking Ridge moving in tandem in southern Canada. This will be a soaking rain event from Texas to South Carolina, but in extremely northern Tennessee, the mountains of NC and the foothills of NC, northern piedmont near VA/NC border into southern half of Virginia, it appears just cold enough to be wet snow, or a rain to snow situation...possibly some sleet. The temps aloft are barely supportive of snow, even in the mountains, but the mtns do have a good shot at several inches Saturday and possibly mixed snow, rain, seet into VA and northern NC piedmont. Saturday looks cold and rainy with temps in the 30's all day for VA, NC, and 40's AL, GA, SC.

A rough outline of where there is the best chance at seeing some wet snow 
~wxsouth

 

10868199_962307527132636_557399752126844

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Jon

Jon

Posted
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Ya it does look weird...looks warm as crap for most.  Looks funny, but wrong?

maybe, maybe not. Who knows...the Euro isn't throwing us any bones right now...

 

Christmas storm cuts, brings in some impressive 850's for the SE.

6Se3w9q.png

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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Still looking like an I-40 special at best to my untrained eye.

 

Yes, we get the coldest rain!  Woo!

 

I thought the Euro's setup looked a little better than the past couple runs, but evidently not given that surface temps are still in the 33-35 range and 850s are still a degree or two above freezing.  Oh, well.  The system just falls apart as it heads east.

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burgertime

burgertime

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Interestingly enough every model is starting to pick up on the CAD...that high floats around on every model. I think that really needs to be watched, it wouldn't be the first time a good CAD setup sneaked in before. I agree though Delta all of the energy should begin getting sampled well tomorrow so this could still change. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Here's where the 12 nam ends up.  1032 High and the track of the low tries to stay miller A and turn up the coast.

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip_s.gif

We need to monitor the low level cold/dry air. Still wont cut it as modeled. We really need dew points about 5 or so lower before precip starts.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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