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Found 140 results

  1. Obs only thread basis: Model consensus (12z/10 NAM and HRRR now back northwest again) suggesting widespread accumulating snowfall of 1 to possibly 5" for the area, max axis unknown and most of it occurring within 4 hours of sunrise Wednesday as temperatures fall to within 2 or 3 degrees of 30 during the snowfall.
  2. We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates. Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley. WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell. Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start.
  3. Figured we could have a separate thread dedicated strictly to December. Should be helpful when looking back on the discussions in the future. Hope everyone is doing well, and I hope we all have a December to remember!
  4. Hi! Would like to see an obs only page for this storm to make it easier to find the data, not only for myself but potentially the media with avid winter weather interest quite high. I'll add only 1 EXPERIMENTAL graphic from about 5AM this morning (Saturday 30th before the storm), but may eventually add pix to support observations as this complex event evolves in its banded - varying intensity form. The graphic below i think is realistic about axis of trouble and I can explain it a bit on the Dec 1-3 discussion page if requested, for those who've not seen this experimental product. Other NWS staff may improve on my interpretation. The legend should assist.
  5. Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
  6. This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
  7. With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season!
  8. Good morning American Weather participants, It might be nice to consolidate wintry precip reports for whatever this minor event delivers today, under one topic. While flurries have occurred in parts of the metro area (nw NJ for sure) on the 8th, today's short period of flurries or snow should be a little more widespread though confidence on where anyone sees a slight accumulation (especially grass-cars-rooftops) is less than ideal.
  9. Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
  10. This may be the nerdiest thing I've done in a while, but I thought it would be cool to see what everyone's historical snow related averages, and other stats are that they have saved since they've been a part of this community. I joined at the tail end of the Eastern Days, and have been here for about 10+ years. Examples of stats to post: Largest one time snowfall Deepest snow depth in a season Longest number of days with measurable snow on the ground Largest seasonal snowfall (entire season) Smallest seasonal snowfall (entire season) Longest period at or below freezing All time snowfall Average (include the number of years that you have been a part of this community) Have you had a winter weather season (fall-to-winter-to-spring) where you had measurable snow during each of the big 3 holidays ...Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter? If so what year(s)? Plus, any other statistics that come to mind. My Stats are from 2009/2010 - 2018/2019 10 season Average: 66.35" Smallest seasonal snowfall: 26.25" (2011/2012) Largest seasonal snowfall: 100" (2014/2015) Largest one time snowfall: 29" (2/8 & 2/9, 2013)
  11. Good Friday morning, not much snow or sleet expected today but prolonged icing on trees/wires and untreated pavements foreseen for elevations above 1000 feet this afternoon-evening, especially Sussex County NJ into se NYS. Another marginal event but its definitely going to be cold. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL at 720AM its still 32F with a very low dew point. It's been snowing a bit in Hazleton and Lehighton PA and now icing in Williamsport.
  12. Snow or sleet should begin ~2A-3A nw NJ and develop east northeastward with better chances for a start as snow when you get to the Hudson River and points east into Connecticut. The southern edge of any very brief slight sleet (or even wet snow) accumulation should be near Interstate 80 prior to sunrise EDT. Significant icing is possible over the high terrain above 1000 feet from nw NJ into se NYS and western CT before temps at even the highest elevations of NJ/SE NYS exceed 32F around Noon Sunday. Best chance for any small snow accum appears to be the very northern fringe of this NYC forum area. Hope we can get some reports of wintry accums of some sort.
  13. I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
  14. It saddens me to say that my snow thrower, White Out will made his final cut last night. It was fitting that in a season where he went un-used up until last night that his final run was for a good ole fashioned, days of yore, 15" storm. White Out was purchased 20 years ago this year at a now non-existent small engine shop in Canton, Mass. He has helped me through some of the toughest winters in both the Boston area as well as here in Connecticut, including the unforgettable winter of 2014/15 where he carved his way through 100" of pure joy. He has also been there for the down times...always waiting, and wanting to sink his teeth into a new coating of white gold...Including the infamous winter of 2011/2012...A bleak moment in SNE winter history, but also stark reminder that Mother Nature holds all of the cards. And if she says snow ain't comin' then it ain't comin' and there's nothing you can do about it. Sometimes we didn't always get along, like the numerous occasions where I pushed him hard to clear many inches of plow driven man snow away from the base of the driveway. There were also those days where I waited too long after a storm and found myself forcing him to cut into a frozen pack. But we were good together, and good for each other. Through the good and the bad White Out was always reliable...always there for me...always eager to serve. Even though he was never excited about the gravel driveway, I knew that he was just a new sheer pin away from happiness. Now, as I move on it is time for White Out and me to go our separate ways. I will be giving him to a friend who needs him. This new situation will be perfect as WO is beginning to show his age. He will be given an easy, double wide, flat asphalt driveway to clear. No more stones caught in the auger...No more pot holes and rugged terrain...No more doubling back, multiple times to clear huge swaths of driveway, and no more tough, bumpy, uphill climbs...No more parked in an exposed lean-to, covered with a tarp, with the wind whipping at your chute. Here's to you my friend. I hope you continue to satisfy your need to feed, while living a long and fruitful life at your new home. Take care Pics of last nights final cut...
  15. One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing.
  16. Northern edge of another mediocre snowfall (period of snow) should be somewhere just north of I80. Better chance 1"+ I78 region.
  17. Looks like the first of several snow or snow to ice-rain events over the next two weeks. This first probably has its southern edge of snow accum somewhere near I78 or I80, with the bulk of 1"+NYS-Southern New England. Flurries could begin Wednesday late morning-early afternoon but the bulk should occur very early Thursday morning.
  18. Here is our 2019 February winter thread. I hope February is a month to remember for all of us across the forum in regards to wintry weather. We have a lot of moving pieces directing our February outlook so here’s to hoping we can start to get more clarity as we go forward. MJO is moving through phase 5 but it should be in phase 6 within the next few days so hopefully that translates well for us going forward.
  19. I in Wantage may not be able to post til ~230P. Have at it. Another mess. Posting some graphics by 7A, on the 20-21 Threat thread, to look back tomorrow and see performance.
  20. Hi! Looks like a nice little event coming tonight into Monday, with some banding, especially se NYS-CT where all snow likely.
  21. Can we get another one to break in our favor in a bad pattern? Fast flow with lots of shortwaves going to make for jumpy forecasts.
  22. If the moderators feel the current thread on discussing the threat is sufficient then just discard this. I'll probably have something to start this around 5A or 6A/12.
  23. Good Monday morning, Hopefully this thread will be useful for the cold frontal passage (wave) snowfall expected Tuesday and Tues night. Most of the snow accumulation should occur 5PM-Midnight when strongest vertical velocity occurs in a snow sounding. I dropped the remainder at 815A. Keeping it simple. Thanks for all the obs already.
  24. If I crash and burn... I crash and burn... But I think it is now warranted for this