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Found 130 results

  1. Since meteorological winter is just over three months away, it's probably about time to start a thread for winter predictions. It looks like we will be in a weak la nina. I've heard the PDO is returning closer to normal. I'm originally from the SE, do the AO and NAO have much effect on the climate of the lower Midwest?
  2. It's currently coming quite a t-storm in my neck of the woods. Got up to 70 today. Looking at a 50 degree drop over the next few days.
  3. Last year's winter discussion thread was started July 28, so it's past time for this winter's thread to start. Here's what Accuweather said from a month ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249 Here are the NWS CPC forecast maps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Currently there is a 55-60% chance of la nina this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've heard the PDO might return to a more neutral or cool phase and don't know much about the potential for Atlantic blocking this winter. Any ideas?
  4. Let's start a new Pittsburgh thread for Winter 2016-2017. If anyone posted recently about the early winter why don't we put them in here going forward.
  5. This is a storm observation thread for March 9 into March 10.
  6. All the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though, as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on.
  7. 12z NAM rolling into the station, not much use at this stage however, but fun to look at

  8. Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  9. Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week. Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong. We have global indices favorable. As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm. I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is. Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z. Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean.
  10. Nice 2-4" refresher on Saturday with the clipper.
  11. 46 F at 10:00 PM at RDU. No snow yet.
  12. Post em if you got em.
  13. Some photos of the winter snows that started in the Cascades of Washington last month.
  14. NAM/RGEM deadly combo this winter continue the trends of keeping the low south of LI with long duration light snow into Wednesday. General ideas from the past few days of 1-3 spot 4 amounts..Best may end up being south of I-90 but we'll see
  15. This event is only around 36 hours from first flakes if models are to be believed. GGEM is lighter snows of 1-2 inches but more widespread. GFS has been consistent with heavier totals in all but one of the last 8 runs, but in all but two of those 8 runs, most snows greater than 1 inch occur over terrain areas in the East. Otherwise they are spread out enough to where areas may pick up 3/4ths of an inch from one system, then have it melt and pick up 3/4ths from the second. So even though you see these snowfall totals, it will not likely be reflected at these amounts on the ground at a given time outside the terrain areas. GGEM through Mon evening. GFS through Monday evening.
  16. So I think February is going to be a big month of snowfall. While everyone thinks it will be average, I have many reasons to believe otherwise. Let's start a healthy debate
  17. Figured we might as well get this one going. The Euro has this system effecting the area in less than 5 days. GFS day 5-6. We've all seen the model runs, some version of this event has been showing up for a week or so now, but as is typical with Southern systems the models are all over the place from run to run. Today they've generally came into agreement that there will be a system that will effect at least some of the region. Up in the air as to which parts. Could be winter as far south as the 1-20 corridor, could be Northern TN/Southern Ky/SWVA and everyone in between. There is even a minor system that ushers in cold just before this one that might provide some minor accumulations. This time frame should be the event to watch but that too is up in the air still due to massive model madness. Best case for the region comes from quite a number of GFES ens members. Most of them show a wide variety of systems that hit in favorable ways for our region. Thus the beautiful means map that gives solid averages to about as wide a swath of our area as you'll ever see. That just shows how many of us are in the game at this point. Worst case is probably the 00z GFS op. It's a miller b type which means warming for most of the valley region. Maybe not all, it even has a front side thump. Some of us picked up a nice event out in front of a rainer last year. Next is the GGEM which was a little too far south but still gave the area a decent 1-3 inch average. I've not seen a 6 hour breakdown on the Euro, but I know the following panel is a look I'd take all day long in winter.
  18. So we are now within a couple days and models look to be in pretty good agreement with a weak coastal storm passing well S of the area but will still throw back enough moisture to clip at least the southern areas of SNE with some light accumulations. T-3" looks to be about it with the hires-NAM right now going GGW dropping 4"+ in some areas.
  19. once again it's about that time. this is not an obs thread it's a storm by storm running total thread. here is last years link 5.4" for me http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29897-mid-atlantic-members-snow-totals-thread/ here is 2010/11 13.5" for me http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/2966-mid-atlantic-members-snow-totals-thread/page__p__94435__fromsearch__1#entry94435 MY BACK YARD N/A RIC N/A
  20. The models keep showing this as a possible threat. Jeff mentions his reasoning for the ice potential in the winter pattern thread. A very strong cold front will sweep through the area overnight Saturday into Sunday causing crashing temps. Most models agree there will be moisture of some amount behind the front. There could also be freezing issues due to the heavy amounts of water left by the rain. In addition to the totals of ice below. Models also show some degree of sleet or snow. I believe the Euro showed an inch or so in a good portion of the area. The NAM shows some snow in parts of East Tennessee. The GFS had a couple of runs showing it too. I believe some of their maps may be incorporating sleet into their snow total maps. The worst case scenario is the Canadian, crippling ice storm for a good portion of the Valley on the 12z run. The Canadian was the first to show this possibility and hasn't wavered from it for days on end. The GFS is much more localized with freezing rain totals. The NAM splits the difference.
  21. Models have been showing this for a while. The latest NAM is showing a healthy vort max over the Midwest Wed night into Thur. The GFS has been hinting at it as well. The pattern as we all know has completely flipped and a good consistent trough is setting place in the Midwest and east. Winter Storm Threats should be alive and well. It's pretty similar to 2000, 2007, and 2013 when looking at analog years. Just post what you think and feel free to give your predictions.
  22. Gains today. yesterday vs today. In any case-we're close enough.
  23. Thought it would be good to keep the obs thread decluttered - post your photos, videos, etc here.
  24. Hurricane force winds, blizzard conditions, epic weather that only lasted 2-3 hours across the Cape and Islands poured fear into the residents minds that the end of the world was indeed today. The horror stories of my sister being caught in a movie theater with no power, my brother being caught in a microburst where the winds were unmeasurable, my dad caught in a wind storm that brought every tree you could think of into the road he was driving along, then of course my epic two plus hour bus ride from Bishop Stang in No. Dartmouth, MA where the weather was pedestrian during the early afternoon, soon began to turn to the more wilder side as the rain turned to sleet just as I was embarking on the worst afternoon of my life. Moments upon leaving Stang, the sleet turned to a wind driven snowfall where it started accumulating rapidly the further east I went. Traffic along route 25 in Wareham and then route 3 along the Canal went towards a standstill traffic wise as the first sign of snow snarled up traffic badly. My dad and siblings whoever was with him trying to pick me up at the bus stop was amazed at all the trees that fell down into the roads. Luckily I didn't face the microburst as I was behind the surface low and tropopause fold, and now I am waiting to witness those winds again, maybe in a hurricane, but an extratropical low will be just fine as well.
  25. Wow 4 years I have been making this thread. Hard to believe but it would not be successful without the others who post in here. It is an honor to be apart of this. As seen in the title I have included the foothills as some have expressed interest in posting in this thread during the winter so I have included that in the title. As we are fast approaching winter and our first freeze being just a couple of days away it appears and to the likes of SnoJoe requesting this thread start up I figured now is as good as any other time to start this thread. This winter has all possibilities for us. We could be looking at a banner year or a warm winter with just a few snows here and there. So lets get started speculating about this upcoming season and see how it all pans out. Looking forward to late nights and disappointments!