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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

what is plenty of precip and what is central NC (north? little bit east of GSO?) if you can be more specific I don't have the soundings...

 

Well roughly RDU get's about 1.2" of precip with 0.5-0.6" of it falling with 850, 925 and 2m all below 0.  A good line would be roughly US1, which seems to be popular line for the models to put the cutoff.  Even the first part of the precip 850's and 925's are right at 0, the 2m is right at 33-34 right down US1.  So this is all per the model, maybe the Euro runs cold and it would all be rain, but that's what it shows.

 

Edit:  Obviously NW of I-40/85 is definitely plenty cold and would be 95% snow, maybe the first little bit would be rain if you want to be technical.

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WSNC

WSNC

Posted
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I'd caution everyone even if they wanted to bank on this solution...850's suck until the low is off the coast and headed out. Outside of what the low generates somehow at 1004mb off of wilmington, the 0C line is in the foothills...by the time the low bombs off HAT at 997, 850's fill in RDU to CLT and west, but most of the moisture has fallen already. So for people west of the foothills, looking at a snowfall map isn't a wise choice here IMO. Haven't looked at soundings but still not cold enough for Central NC. As I've and others have mentioned, some said the bomb wouldn't help with temps but it's obvious it does somewhat. I think we still need a stronger storm here to get Central NC in the action. The snow map on wxbell outside of the foothills I don't buy at all.

850's are much improved this run for the triad.  -2c at 12z Saturday and stay below freezing through event.   Looks like the typical areas west of 85 do well on this run.  

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

the 0 line starts off in northern nc before the storm even takes a turn se per e-wall at hr 120 

 

Sure, but 850's rise after that.  For the RDU area 850's don't appear to be cold enough until hr 135 and I"m afraid most of the moisture has passed at that point.  I have not looked at the soundings but see pack's breakdown above so I could be wrong.  It's useless even bothering w/ it now anyway, because it'll change.

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

Well roughly RDU get's about 1.2" of precip with 0.5-0.6" of it falling with 850, 925 and 2m all below 0.  A good line would be roughly US1, which seems to be popular line for the models to put the cutoff.  Even the first part of the precip 850's and 925's are right at 0, the 2m is right at 33-34 right down US1.  So this is all per the model, maybe the Euro runs cold and it would all be rain, but that's what it shows.

Yeah just dissecting my 6hour images, the precip I buy is about 0.4 for RDU as snow verbatim that's why I cautioned the snow maps. by 138 the 6hour precip is very limited in Central NC (0.1 from GSO to a tight gradient over wake county, per usual, to 0.4 at RDU)... 0C fluctuates between 126-132, per the models RDU might be at 0 (and it is at 132) but counties immediately west are +1C a linear line going all the way to CLT. With 138 having a good look IMO with -1 at RDU...by then no precip to work with. But text soundings probably paint a more prettier picture.However like you said as you don't currently buy it, I don't either. Need a bit more to work with but I DO like this run, we'll see what the means look like.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Posted

Sure, but 850's rise after that.  For the RDU area 850's don't appear to be cold enough until hr 135 and I"m afraid most of the moisture has passed at that point.  I have not looked at the soundings but see pack's breakdown above so I could be wrong.  It's useless even bothering w/ it now anyway, because it'll change.

 

Agreed, it will change.  Remind me not to post about our area next run, feels like a witch hunt.

 

I am fairly pessimistic on any snow from this storm anyways.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Posted

Yeah just dissecting my 6hour images, the precip I buy is about 0.4 for RDU as snow verbatim that's why I cautioned the snow maps. by 138 the 6hour precip is very limited in Central NC (0.1 from GSO to a tight gradient over wake county, per usual, to 0.4 at RDU)... 0C fluctuates between 126-132, per the models RDU might be at 0 (and it is at 132) but counties immediately west are +1C a linear line going all the way to CLT. With 138 having a good look IMO with -1 at RDU...by then no precip to work with. But text soundings probably paint a more prettier picture.However like you said as you don't currently buy it, I don't either. Need a bit more to work with but I DO like this run, we'll see what the means look like.

 

I could be wrong, it's probably rain for us, snow is confined to western zones.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Just speaking for my area, based on 850s and surface temperatures, GSO/INT is probably all-snow aside from maybe a little rain at the beginning.  Of course, soundings may invalidate this, but I have no way to know since I don't have that information.

 

850s do get a little close mid-storm, so maybe there's some sleet in there, at worst.  It looks like we get roughly 0.8" of precip, so maybe 4-6" of snow or so is realistic, I think.  Solid storm, if it were accurate.

 

Of course, as you go S/E from GSO, it gets much more precarious.  Sounds like last winter, eh?

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Jon

Jon

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Agreed, it will change.  Remind me not to post about our area next run, feels like a witch hunt.

 

I am fairly pessimistic on any snow from this storm anyways.

please post lol you know me I've been all about not counting this storm for Central NC but I think as a forum we should get input from all members and their interpretations as far as wintry precip as we can cause a lot of people don't have access to 6 hourly outputs, especially soundings. It seems like we're in the time period where we're going to see some wild solutions and honestly I can't wait as we get closer. Amazing look at 12z for the Euro today.

 

I could be wrong, it's probably rain for us, snow is confined to western zones.

I agree. This run is going to get some hype and I welcome it but I like to keep in mind where we were a run ago and the spread in other modeling. However with the CMC with a low off the coast of NC has me wondering what the 18z and 00z of the GFS will show and especially what the EPS and 00z OP show tonight. I'm officially interested.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Just speaking for my area, based on 850s and surface temperatures, GSO/INT is probably all-snow aside from maybe a little rain at the beginning.  Of course, soundings may invalidate this, but I have no way to know since I don't have that information.

 

850s do get a little close mid-storm, so maybe there's some sleet in there, at worst.  It looks like we get roughly 0.8" of precip, so maybe 4-6" of snow or so is realistic, I think.  Solid storm, if it were accurate.

 

Of course, as you go S/E from GSO, it gets much more precarious.  Sounds like last winter, eh?

 

We can miss them to the NW and we can miss them to our SE, we don't discriminate against riding the edge.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

For those interested in some hard data, DT posted this on facebook https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk ...of course, the text are his interpretations but these are 6 hour intervals. Also, look at the timing...I didn't even look at the times on the model output...makes a huge difference as far as my opinion in leaning the other way. I guess we should hope for the Euro to keep this trend and 6 hours later would mean a heck of a lot.

 

AIHMyj4.jpg

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

2 of the top 4 CIP's 5h analogs...just saying...I wish I could post the EuroWx snow map which some people feel like is a realistic snow map  :whistle:

 

 

 

 

 

I'll take both of those. Feel free to share through a PM. SV snow maps give just north of CLT 2 inches with Winston Salem and GSO around 4 inches...nothing really crazy on them. 

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

2 of the top 4 CIP's 5h analogs...just saying...I wish I could post the EuroWx snow map which some people feel like is a realistic snow map  :whistle:

 

Edit:  The Dec,2002 ice storm is in the analog set too.  I didn't check all of them, just ones that I remembered.

 

accum.19880108.gif

 

accum.19820115.gif

 

 

I think folks are having a hard time giving any merit to what the Euro showed because it was such a big change. Doesn't mean it isn't right, though.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

2 of the top 4 CIP's 5h analogs...just saying...I wish I could post the EuroWx snow map which some people feel like is a realistic snow map  :whistle:

 

Edit:  The Dec,2002 ice storm is in the analog set too.  I didn't check all of them, just ones that I remembered.

 

accum.19880108.gif

 

accum.19820115.gif

 

Those are two interesting analogs. I know that 1/1988 was more of an overrunning event. Admittedly, I dont know much about that 82 event. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Those are two interesting analogs. I know that 1/1988 was more of an overrunning event. Admittedly, I dont know much about that 82 event. 

 

The first part of the '82 event was snowjam1 in Atlanta.  Those CIPS analogs would be based off the GFS, and the 12z GFS was a weak overrunning event...those 2 analog storms are in a different galaxy from a temperature standpoint (those were much colder).

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