Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[buckeye]

I wouldn't worry about the cold air retreating. Why you study a day 10 euro op run is beyond me.

 

Study?   I was just mentioning what it showed.  It's relevant in the face of all the pattern change and cold forecast calls.  Just another piece of the puzzle...right or wrong.  

[Stebo]

Study? I was just mentioning what it showed. It's relevant in the face of all the pattern change and cold forecast calls. Just another piece of the puzzle...right or wrong.

It is a day 10 map. It is wrong, it isn't even worth mentioning the good or the bad of it.

[DAFF]

I think the pattern of the last 10 months is changing. For the first time in a long while a storm will pass with warmth with very little cold behind it. While some teleconnections are showing cold others are not pointing in that direction.

[dan123]

I think the pattern of the last 10 months is changing. For the first time in a long while a storm will pass with warmth with very little cold behind it. While some teleconnections are showing cold others are not pointing in that direction.

You will regret saying this.

[IWXwx]

Study?   I was just mentioning what it showed.  It's relevant in the face of all the pattern change and cold forecast calls.  Just another piece of the puzzle...right or wrong.  

 

 

It is a day 10 map. It is wrong, it isn't even worth mentioning the good or the bad of it.

 

Who pi$$ed in your Wheaties?  He said it was just another piece of the puzzle. I would say that it's closer to reality than not. It's more of the same progressive pattern that we're currently in. Some transient cold next week and retreating by the 3rd.

 

IF I were going to rely on an op run at 10 days, it would be the King over the lolGFS.

[DAFF]

You will regret saying this.

I see the Euro with the cold dropping down thru 144 hrs. There is something different right now... The never ending NW flow

[Chicago Storm]

It is a day 10 map. It is wrong, it isn't even worth mentioning the good or the bad of it.

You need to realize what thread you're in.

[Stebo]

Who pi$$ed in your Wheaties? He said it was just another piece of the puzzle. I would say that it's closer to reality than not. It's more of the same progressive pattern that we're currently in. Some transient cold next week and retreating by the 3rd.

IF I were going to rely on an op run at 10 days, it would be the King over the lolGFS.

I may have come in strong but the point is the models have been absolutely terrible in the long range so much so that it isn't worth looking at 10 day projections because they have been constantly far from the truth, whether it is the gfs, gem or euro.

[Stebo]

You need to realize what thread you're in.

Yeah the land of wish casting and hoping.

[csnavywx]

CFSv2 forecast for the upcoming month looks very Nino-like. Shouldn't be a surprise with persistent weak +ENSO and strong +PDO in place. It's going to take some serious blocking in the right place to cash in with this pattern.

[Central Illinois]

You will regret saying this.

Lol sorry but the cold won't last more than a week

[Chicago WX]

I think what Stebo was trying to say that op models aren't very reliable at day 10...and via verification scores, he's right. Compare the 500H model scores at day 5 and 10. Pretty good at day 5, but drops off considerably by day 10.

 

 

 

Ensembles generally give you the better look at day 10, though of course they're not infallible either. Probably better to compare the op run to the ensemble suite. So, let's compare today's 12z op Euro and EPS mean at 240 hours. For the most part, they're reasonably close on this run. Not too bad. So at this point, we can probably have some confidence that the op run isn't completely out to lunch.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stebo]

I think what Stebo was trying to say that op models aren't very reliable at day 10...and via verification scores, he's right. Compare the 500H model scores at day 5 and 10. Pretty good at day 5, but drops off considerably by day 10.

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Ensembles generally give you the better look at day 10, though of course they're not infallible either. Probably better to compare the op run to the ensemble suite. So, let's compare today's 12z op Euro and EPS mean at 240 hours. For the most part, they're reasonably close on this run. Not too bad. So at this point, we can probably have some confidence that the op run isn't completely out to lunch.

ec 500h 240.png

eps 500h 240.png

ec 850 240.png

eps 850 240.png

Yes looking at ensembles is better, that way you can look for a common theme and see if it remains consistent day to day. Using op runs at 10 days is just too foolhardy because they rarely verify at face value. The big thing if you do look at a 10 day op run is to not get hung up on details.

[TugHillMatt]

This seems like it is going to be the winter with these warmups pushing right up through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region. That is pretty much was the EURO is showing. What is causing the little ridge to focus on the Great Lakes in particular?

[beavis1729]

CFSv2 forecast for the upcoming month looks very Nino-like. Shouldn't be a surprise with persistent weak +ENSO and strong +PDO in place. It's going to take some serious blocking in the right place to cash in with this pattern.

Weren't some of the midwest's top winters (late 1970's for example) weak +ENSO events? If so, what makes the current winter pattern so different?

[nwohweather]

A serious question, not a complaint...what has occurred with the pattern to throw off pretty much every long range forecast this season? Most if not all were calling for colder than normal (some significantly so) with normal to above normal snowfall in pretty much all of the lakes and Ohio valley.

We can no longer say that "there's plenty of winter left", when it comes to the pattern. The most wintry 12-week period when it comes to snow cover and "look and feel" is the last week of nov thru the 3rd week of feb. Outside of that, we can definitely get snow storms...but it isn't guaranteed to stick around very long. So, we may end up going the entire 1st half of this 12 week period with zero 1"+ snow depth days at ORD.

What did all of the long range forecasters miss? I guess you can chalk some of it up to chaos and the imperfection of the science...but not all of it.

There is a long way to go. Toledo averages only 7" of its 37" a year in December, while that Jan-March 10 stretch gets 25" a season. Besides last season we received 40" in January alone, a few active weeks and the slow start will be forgotten. Either way the coasts have been pretty active with another strong low currently running thru the GL. Dont worry the pattern is plenty active enough

[csnavywx]

If you're referring to say... the 1977-78 Nino it occurred in a much different environment. Weak/nonexistent PDO signal, cool Pac temps leading up to that winter:

 

 

 

As opposed to 2014's lead-up, which has seen the warmest NPAC temps ever recorded by a large margin:

 

[michsnowfreak]

CFSv2 forecast for the upcoming month looks very Nino-like. Shouldn't be a surprise with persistent weak +ENSO and strong +PDO in place. It's going to take some serious blocking in the right place to cash in with this pattern.

The CFSv2 has literally been flip flopping back and forth on January.

[michsnowfreak]

This seems like it is going to be the winter with these warmups pushing right up through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region. That is pretty much was the EURO is showing. What is causing the little ridge to focus on the Great Lakes in particular?

The Euro 12 hours prior had an absolute arctic blast. It seems like this winter more than ever everyone needs to take the entire long range with a grain of salt. This means if the long range looks good, tempering the excitement is a must, and if it looks bad, loosen the noose. It will change a million times.

[michsnowfreak]

There is a long way to go. Toledo averages only 7" of its 37" a year in December, while that Jan-March 10 stretch gets 25" a season. Besides last season we received 40" in January alone, a few active weeks and the slow start will be forgotten. Either way the coasts have been pretty active with another strong low currently running thru the GL. Dont worry the pattern is plenty active enough

There is a very long way to go. The snow season is only about 20% over climatologically. January and February are more wintry here than December (on average, of course it varies year to year). Im not so much worried about winter as a whole, we go through this panic every year that we arent buried in snow by now, honestly, Im surprised the panic isnt worse considering how bad Dec is. I am just EXTREMELY impatient right now lol.

[Rainman]

A serious question, not a complaint...what has occurred with the pattern to throw off pretty much every long range forecast this season? Most if not all were calling for colder than normal (some significantly so) with normal to above normal snowfall in pretty much all of the lakes and Ohio valley.

We can no longer say that "there's plenty of winter left", when it comes to the pattern. The most wintry 12-week period when it comes to snow cover and "look and feel" is the last week of nov thru the 3rd week of feb. Outside of that, we can definitely get snow storms...but it isn't guaranteed to stick around very long. So, we may end up going the entire 1st half of this 12 week period with zero 1"+ snow depth days at ORD.

What did all of the long range forecasters miss? I guess you can chalk some of it up to chaos and the imperfection of the science...but not all of it.

Strong eastward-extended Pac jet for one. The MJO didn't help matters through the first 3 weeks of December either. The stratospheric PV was also in a very weakened state in Nov, which was great, but tropospheric wave driving has fallen off a cliff and the PV has completely recovered. The extended progs really want to get it going again and potentially split the PV all the way up through 10mb sometime during the first two weeks of January, the Euro by Day 10 even(!), but we'll just have to see how it goes I guess. Not my area of expertise.

[michsnowfreak]

A serious question, not a complaint...what has occurred with the pattern to throw off pretty much every long range forecast this season? Most if not all were calling for colder than normal (some significantly so) with normal to above normal snowfall in pretty much all of the lakes and Ohio valley.

We can no longer say that "there's plenty of winter left", when it comes to the pattern. The most wintry 12-week period when it comes to snow cover and "look and feel" is the last week of nov thru the 3rd week of feb. Outside of that, we can definitely get snow storms...but it isn't guaranteed to stick around very long. So, we may end up going the entire 1st half of this 12 week period with zero 1"+ snow depth days at ORD.

What did all of the long range forecasters miss? I guess you can chalk some of it up to chaos and the imperfection of the science...but not all of it.

Im very surprised ORD didnt log a 1" depth in November. Everyone in the region seemed to have numerous such days.

[michsnowfreak]

Strong eastward-extended Pac jet for one. The MJO didn't help matters through the first 3 weeks of December either. The stratospheric PV was also in a very weakened state in Nov, which was great, but tropospheric wave driving has fallen off a cliff and the PV has completely recovered. The extended progs really want to get it going again and potentially split the PV all the way up through 10mb sometime during the first two weeks of January, the Euro by Day 10 even(!), but we'll just have to see how it goes I guess. Not my area of expertise.

Is the bolded good or bad lol?

 

January into February is the dead of winter here, so this is REALLY a time of unknowns. Temp trends essentially mean nothing (ie we can score in a mild pattern, be high and dry in a cold, etc etc)....and since it all boils down to who gets snow (thats what most care about) and the models are doing terribly, everyone will just have to take everything day by day. It may be a good winter, it may be a bad one, it may be in the middle...but there is no confident answer to that question right now. And I dont think one is coming anytime soon.

[Jackstraw]

Is the bolded good or bad lol?

 

January into February is the dead of winter here, so this is REALLY a time of unknowns. Temp trends essentially mean nothing (ie we can score in a mild pattern, be high and dry in a cold, etc etc)....and since it all boils down to who gets snow (thats what most care about) and the models are doing terribly, everyone will just have to take everything day by day. It may be a good winter, it may be a bad one, it may be in the middle...but there is no confident answer to that question right now. And I dont think one is coming anytime soon.

 

       Hi,  I'm  jack and I'm a snowaholic 

[Rainman]

Is the bolded good or bad lol?

 

January into February is the dead of winter here, so this is REALLY a time of unknowns. Temp trends essentially mean nothing (ie we can score in a mild pattern, be high and dry in a cold, etc etc)....and since it all boils down to who gets snow (thats what most care about) and the models are doing terribly, everyone will just have to take everything day by day. It may be a good winter, it may be a bad one, it may be in the middle...but there is no confident answer to that question right now. And I dont think one is coming anytime soon.

A potential stratospheric wave 2 pattern would be good, I would imagine. Like I said, not my area of expertise...at all..., but it would favor a strongly -AO, high latitude blocking, southward displacements of the polar jet and all that good stuff that we like to see in a good winter.

[Harry]

If you're referring to say... the 1977-78 Nino it occurred in a much different environment. Weak/nonexistent PDO signal, cool Pac temps leading up to that winter:

 

 

 

As opposed to 2014's lead-up, which has seen the warmest NPAC temps ever recorded by a large margin:

 

 

 

From what i have been looking at the Nino has cooled some via the dailies i get which show 3.4 down to +0.6. Had been up to the +1.0/1.1 range. The eastern regions have really cooled as well the past month. Whether this continue or not is another question? Hopefully it continues to cool/weaken.. Could help the rest of the way..

 

 

 

 

 

A potential stratospheric wave 2 pattern would be good, I would imagine. Like I said, not my area of expertise...at all..., but it would favor a strongly -AO, high latitude blocking, southward displacements of the polar jet and all that good stuff that we like to see in a good winter.

 

 

As long as the NAO doesn't tank as well. If it does then welcome to suppression city.

 

EPO once again being forecast ( models )  to go negative..

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

That would help tons.

 

I know some are down about this current storm but their is a bright side to it and thus the track it took which says we do have a door open.

[blizzardof96]

Based on some of the indices looks like Jan could continue the nina like pattern in the means... even with the potential SSW downwelling by mid-late month. Believe core of cold is west of the apps early month and then even further west with a -PNA/-AO mid-late month. Still firmly believe Jan is YYZ's snowiest month of the winter.

[dan123]

Lol sorry but the cold won't last more than a week

Ok we"ll see about that

[Rainman]

Based on some of the indices looks like Jan could continue the nina like pattern in the means... even with the potential SSW downwelling by mid-late month. Believe core of cold is west of the apps early month and then even further west with a -PNA/-AO mid-late month. Still firmly believe Jan is YYZ's snowiest month of the winter.

Do you think we'll manage a stratosphere wave 2 via upwelling by early Jan, and wouldn't that reduce dependence on an SSW episode?

I also noticed the GWO beginning to oscillate in negative territory. Do you think that will contribute to the persistence of the SE ridge? Very non-Nino like for sure.

[DAFF]

Rainman bringing some meat and potatoes to the metrological thinking table... Loving all of the red inputs as of late.