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Hoosier

Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

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0z GFS really backed off the warm up for most of the subforum. Mild spell really getting trimmed down.

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0z GFS really backed off the warm up for most of the subforum. Mild spell really getting trimmed down.

 

You don't say, persistent patterns are hard to break, we've been below average for 12 of the last 13 months, and the one month that was above average was barely so.  December may still end up below average, especially if the GFS is right and the warm up is brief.

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If we could see the D11 EURO it looks like it could potentially be interesting?

The rest can be seen at a websites like:

Porno . Com

But seriously that was the best potential we have seen for this area in weeks.

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Browsing the NE forum, in addition to this warm spell being pushed back back back, some of the mets are saying the signal keeps growing and growing for a sharp turn to cold near the Winter Solstice.

 

The boring weather is undeniable, but Im really starting to think that this torch that will end up being talked about for a month will end up being a run of the mill few days well above normal.

 

FOR REFERENCE...

 

DETROIT....1874-2013

Avg number of days per December the high is 40F+...10 days

Avg number of days per December the high is 45F+.....5 days

Avg number of days per December the high is 50F+.....3 days

Avg number of days per December the high is 55F+.....1 day

 

The most days in a December the high was 40F+......27 days (1881)

The most days in a December the high was 45F+......19 days (1881)

The most days in a December the high was 50F+......11 days (1982)

The most days in a December the high was 55F+........8 days (1982)

The most days in a December the high was 60F+........6 days (1982)

The most days in a December the high was 65F+........3 days (1998)

Max December temp: 69F (1998)

 

*Only 12 times in the last 140 years did Detroit not hit 45F+ in December

*Only 2 times in the last 140 years did Detroit not hit 40F+ in December (1910 & 2000 when the max was 38F each time)

 

*******************************************************************************************

 

CHICAGO....1872-2013

Avg number of days per December the high is 40F+...10 days

Avg number of days per December the high is 45F+.....6 days

Avg number of days per December the high is 50F+.....3 days

Avg number of days per December the high is 55F+.....2 days

 

The most days in a December the high was 40F+......26 days (1923)

The most days in a December the high was 45F+......21 days (1889)

The most days in a December the high was 50F+......16 days (1877)

The most days in a December the high was 55F+........9 days (1982)

The most days in a December the high was 60F+........9 days (1982)

The most days in a December the high was 65F+........3 days (1975)

Max December temp: 71F (1982)

 

*Only 9 times in the last 142 years did Chicago not hit 45F+ in December

*Only 2 times in the last 142 years did Chicago not hit 40F+ in December (1983 (max 38F) & 2000 (max 37F))

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GFS does look like a return to winter starts around the 20th. It's growing much colder than was shown yesterday.

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The rest can be seen at a websites like:

Porno . Com

But seriously that was the best potential we have seen for this area in weeks.

 

MJO > pessimism. Who would have thunk it? Well, still lotsa time before this putative pattern change actually takes place.

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hopefully the ggem has the 10 day pattern all wrong.  I know enough to be dangerous when it comes to weather, but one thing I do know...low pressure trains across Canada are never a good thing for us.

I guess if you want a bright side to what that is showing is it will build up a decent the snow cover up there ...

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Browsing the NE forum, in addition to this warm spell being pushed back back back, some of the mets are saying the signal keeps growing and growing for a sharp turn to cold near the Winter Solstice.

 

The boring weather is undeniable, but Im really starting to think that this torch that will end up being talked about for a month will end up being a run of the mill few days well above normal.

 

 

 

As soon as it showed up on the models it was DOA...I'm not denying the milder pattern compared to November...but the extended well above norm didn't have a chance.  As you said, 2 weeks of heat condensed into 2 days will most likely be the reality for the true torch.

 

As I mentioned to you in Part 1...we are entering a phase/pattern that looks a lot like the last week or so of October.  IF that translates into a repeat of November during January things could get mighty chilly.  Anywho, look through the transgression in late October and then gander at the next week or so on the models.  Forget the fine details, but more of a focus on broad pattern in the upper levels...

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20141022.html

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Maybe I am having a delusion, but it seems we are in a similar pattern to last year just two weeks early. We had a stretch of mild weather last December locally with heavy rain the third week of December. I just wonder if we won't see a similar progression with the cold returning in a big way the fourth week of December.

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What a crap weather pattern until Dec 20th or so, 0.25 qpf here and probably rain. I'm Hoping the Dec 20th+ pattern change and cooldown happens that the the long range models are showing. (this probably should be in the complaint thread lol). I'm not dreaming of a green x-mas lol.

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Well, so far, the local 10 day has us in the mid 40's to the low 50's from the 11th - 14th, well to be honest, it shows only one day creeping to 50 or above.  Still shows low 40's through the end of the 10 day, which is the 16th. It would be nice if the cold air arrived sooner, as opposed to later.

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I have a sneaky suspicion the warmth on tap will get muted more and more over the next week or so. Not to say the warmth will not build but the moon cycle is not in phase with a drastic weather change. Around the 19-21 I suspect the cold will arrive (storm) if not then December could be a total loss WRT wintery weather.

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As soon as it showed up on the models it was DOA...I'm not denying the milder pattern compared to November...but the extended well above norm didn't have a chance.  As you said, 2 weeks of heat condensed into 2 days will most likely be the reality for the true torch.

 

As I mentioned to you in Part 1...we are entering a phase/pattern that looks a lot like the last week or so of October.  IF that translates into a repeat of November during January things could get mighty chilly.  Anywho, look through the transgression in late October and then gander at the next week or so on the models.  Forget the fine details, but more of a focus on broad pattern in the upper levels...

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20141022.html

 

There is a piece of energy missing from this current pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago. (analysis)

 

iD3FCYi.gif

 

dwm500_test_20141023_27.gif

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There is a piece of energy missing from this current pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago. (analysis)

 

 

Well, I would say that's a pretty dang solid correlation there...lol

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It was an awful run. The cold seems to be locked up on the otherside of the planet.

Not sure why you think this. It's December there's plenty of cold arctic air in Canada.

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Well, I would say that's a pretty dang solid correlation there...lol

 

Not sure others would see it that way. Also, I bet there are other maps that show the connection better than the WPCs. I digress. :)

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In the grasping at straws department, models are indicating a moisture laden system in the central US next weekend.  Cold air is going to be a question mark as well as where it tracks after leaving the Plains, but desperate times call for desperate measures.  :)

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