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Winter 2014-15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Hoosier

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3/12/14 was close. 

 

2/5/14 was a hybrid hooker/gulf low kerfuffle.

 

2/1/14 I guess was sort of a hooker, but extremely strung out with a positive-tilt trough.

 

12/13/13 and 1/1/14 were sort of/kind of hookers also (1/1/14 more of hybrid gulf low as well).

 

Last season was full of "mutant" storms, the main theme being that none of them were particularly wound-up/moist storms.

Thanks. I know I can count on storm trackers like you to answer those questions (and thanks Tim for the link).

 

Ask me how much snow fell in 1947 or specific details of observations during almost any snowstorm the last 10 years...Ill be dead on...ask me to remember where the track was from, how the models did, etc...forget about it lol (about as far I go is remembering if a storm was a distinct over or underperformer)

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While I love big storms at this point I would much rather just get into a prolonged cold and snowy pattern. I love a deep snow pack with lots of refresher systems. I just love seeing snow falling from the sky. I know many here hate the nickel and dime stuff but I'm sure more like you. I'll take them anytime .. well except July :P I know a big storm will eventually come as they normally do.

You and I are two peas in a pod as thats exactly my thoughts! Constant cold, snowy pattern is what was able to maintain a 15-24" snowpack across SE MI for about a month-and-a-half continuously (Feb thru mid-Mar). That is nearly impossible to do at this latitude or really anywhere outside of a Lake belt (settling, compaction, melting, etc). It happened in Chicago in 1978-79 as well (though they were aided by several epic storms). Look at how fast noreasters snow depths turn to annoying mush...or even our own big storms...The 19.3" storm on Dec 1, 1974 was down to a depth of 9" Dec 8th and 5" by Dec 13th. And thats with additional snowfalls. April 6, 1886's 24.5" was gone in a week.

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Is it me or does the 0z GFS has a pretty different evolution next week. Lots of moving parts 

 

What's interesting to me is that most of the models are now suggesting that Minnesota will get snow next Monday night.  That means that the southern energy will no longer be cut off, and will lift north following the western edge of the South Eastern ridge possibly phasing with the northern energy.  The question is what happens to the SE ridge the rest of the week?  Will it hold stout or be broken down by the El Nino pattern and the strong sub tropical jet?  I have previously posted that with the weak El Nino that I don't think that the sub tropical jet will be as strong as some have indicated.  Thus it wouldn't surprise me if the storm progged for the 20th to 23rd will cut up into the Ohio Valley

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The 0z Euro has a bodacious trough over the Rockies in the day 6-7 period. If that verifies, we'd probably just get a bowling ball skirting by to the south for the 20th, especially since it appears to show almost no northern stream interaction this run. But it's not all the way out yet. 

 

Edit: Hold that thought lol. I shouldn't predict what the run will do 10 minutes before it gets to the interesting part. 

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0z Euro not too dissimilar to last night's run...STJ shortwave is way too strong and with no northern stream involvement it closes off over the Rockies and then drifts east with very little cold air, and then fizzles as it gets to the Mississippi River...would be OK for parts of the Plains (maybe as far east as parts of Iowa) and also Denver, but the different results on the op models show the importance of getting some northern stream involvement. Given how anemic the northern stream will be, no confidence in one solution over another right now as the models probably won't handle the weak northern stream shortwaves well. We'll see if the ensembles are as supportive of the idea as they were 12z. 

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Judging by the 500mb spaghetti plots, I'd say about 1/4th of the ensemble members track a low into the Ohio Valley on the 0z Euro ensembles, with a few being farther NW than that. The other half to 2/3rds probably stay too far south for most of us. Not a hopeless look though, and probably slightly better support for the system than the 12z ensembles.

 

post-525-0-84674100-1418377321_thumb.png

 

post-525-0-28456300-1418377334_thumb.png

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hot tip: punt the 20th event

 

it's going to scoot harmlessly along the gulf states and ots

 

I hope that you're wrong about this, but the preponderance of the evidence at this point is that we'll wave at it as it passes to the south.

 

I'm pinning my hopes on my perception that the models disagree in the medium range more than normal when a pattern change is pending. The result is sometimes a storm for our sub that doesn't show itself until just a few days before it hits.

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Here is the rub. Even if it cuts, there is no cold air. We will have to wait for whatever follows when the pattern improves

That's definitely the main concern, can't really get around it. That doesn't rule out snow, but gives much less room for error. I still think it's worth tracking as the models have in some cases found ways to get just enoug cold involved to produce snow, but maybe I'm just bored. The pattern after looks colder and somewhat active regardless.
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Evidence at this point doesn't point to a whiff south with the 12/20-21 system...but as Alek said, a true cold connection is shaky. Still can be frozen to be had for some though, so I wouldn't completely dismiss the chance at this point. Thereafter though, things look to be going in the right direction. I do find it a little interesting how this upcoming Monday's system has turned into a "cutter", all the while the medium/long range guidance had it as more of a southern slider. Sometimes you have to go through some "pain" during a pattern transition...

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Evidence at this point doesn't point to a whiff south with the 12/20-21 system...but as Alek said, a true cold connection is shaky. Still can be frozen to be had for some though, so I wouldn't completely dismiss the chance at this point. Thereafter though, things look to be going in the right direction. I do find it a little interesting how this upcoming Monday's system has turned into a "cutter", all the while the medium/long range guidance had it as more of a southern slider. Sometimes you have to go through some "pain" during a pattern transition...

If the Monday-Tuesday system can bring in a little bit of cold and possibly help the cause around the 20th, I'm ok with it cutting.
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If the Monday-Tuesday system can bring in a little bit of cold and possibly help the cause around the 20th, I'm ok with it cutting.

 

Sacrifice one for another. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but at least some activity ahead for us in the next 10 days (and maybe beyond)...and that's a good thing.

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in an effort not to be a total downer, the 20thish system looks to have a great moisture connection, so at least that's nice

But obviouly, if it were to cut NW of us with a full blown phase, it would put a lid on the next potential system as far as moisture return and suppression (see GFS).

So it's going to be a give and take. Either way, there will be losses...

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models playing catch up and will continue to do so with the 21st system....

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1018 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 15 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 19 2014


...CONTINUED WET ALONG THE WEST COAST...

WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ABATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE RESOLUTION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW HAS UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. RELIED ON THE ROBUST AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS
MEAN AND THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE BIG
MODEL CHANGE IS THAT THE LOW EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES VIA PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM--HERETOFORE INDICATED TO HAVE REMAINED DISTINCT FROM THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH. WHILE THE STRONG, UNIFIED PACIFIC JET WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW GOING OVER THE FAR WEST, THE PHASING
WILL TEND TO COOL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES
BACK TOWARD NORMAL--WITH A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK IN THE WAKE OF
THE GREAT LAKES LOW TRANSFERRING TO THE GULF OF MAINE MID PERIOD.
 

 

a blend of the suppressed and aggressive cutter seems appropriate for the 21st at this standpoint...still leaning on a transfer solution personally

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Agree with you guys about the system around the 20th.  Unless we get better phasing, it's going to be a thread the needle setup with marginal cold air to work with.  But be careful what you wish for as better phasing could easily turn this into a congrats MSP outcome.

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12z Euro is quite impressive with the system on the 20th.  

 

Absolutely dumps on OK/southern KS/MO and northern AR then it weakens as it move what looks like more NE'ly this run before it transfers and then the main snow swath runs up through STL/LAF and to Toledo. 

 

Even though it is still a good ways out, nice to see potential on several runs now. 

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12z Euro is quite impressive with the system on the 20th.  

 

Absolutely dumps on OK/southern KS/MO and northern AR then it weakens as it move what looks like more NE'ly this run before it transfers and then the main snow swath runs up through STL/LAF and to Toledo. 

 

Even though it is still a good ways out, nice to see potential on several runs now. 

 

12Z PGFS went with a similar path but a little stronger before the transfer...

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12z Euro is quite impressive with the system on the 20th.  

 

Absolutely dumps on OK/southern KS/MO and northern AR then it weakens as it move what looks like more NE'ly this run before it transfers and then the main snow swath runs up through STL/LAF and to Toledo. 

 

Even though it is still a good ways out, nice to see potential on several runs now. 

 

 

How long does the OV low remain dominant?  Based on what I'm looking it on the 24 hour time intervals, it almost looks like it wants to start transferring not long after 192 hours (a bit of bagginess in the isobars) with the process well underway with the coastal low taking over by 216 hours.

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How long does the OV low remain dominant?  Based on what I'm looking it on the 24 hour time intervals, it almost looks like it wants to start transferring not long after 192 hours (a bit of bagginess in the isobars) with the process well underway with the coastal low taking over by 216 hours.

 

1006mb over se MO at 192hr then goes over EVV at 198hr. 

 

Looks like it starts transferring after that but slowly. Both the OV low (over Cincy) and the transfer over SC are 1010mb at 210hr. 

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